[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Mellotron]

They're claiming to be ahead in every poll, claiming to be well ahead in early voting, etc. It's all just part of their tactics, because they know the truth.

Which is utterly insane, given 538 has had Kamala Harris ahead for the ENTIRE race. Trump hasn't been ahead in poll of polls at any point in the race. Not even once.

 

[Motogull]

And to think there a poster on here that watched all 3 hours

I expect that was the only waffle and the other 2 hours 55 minutes was deeply insightful and inspirational.

They pick the best looking pilots to fly Air Force 1. That must be reassuring for a president.

He comes out with some strange shit but that was bordering on homoeroticism.

I appreciate the Americans won't really get it, but The Donald's latest tagine - TRUMP WILL FIX IT - brings up all the wrong connotations, for me.

At best he's a kids cartoon handyman with talking mobile plant as his friends. At worst, it's all a bit noncey...

Yup, Trump'll fix it. I fully expect MAGA medals next.

OK I get what you are saying I think. I would be pissed if he didn't appoint the line up, Musk, Kennedy, etc for Kushner and other nepotistic picks and some Neo-con warpigs RINOs etc.

I thought you might be pissed off not drunk on that. Not sure why I bothered given I am probably on your ignore list but hey ho.

 

[Bodian]

It's happening again isn't it.

For the record, the Lancaster County guy is a republican who allegedly did similar in Florida before.

It'll be interesting if they turn out to be potential Republican voters

 

[Crawley Dingo]

If he's the opposite of a fascist, isn't he by definition Antifa?

Can see that working out well.

Depends how you look at it, if its individualism to collectivism Kier Starmer and Hitler are holding hands.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

I thought you might be pissed off not drunk on that. Not sure why I bothered given I am probably on your ignore list but hey ho.

No not yet.

 

[nwgull]

I think Harris will win comfortably. There's no possible way the popular vote will be as close as the 7 million in 2020 and I'm sure this will also be reflected in the swing states that will decide the Electoral College result. There aren't enough new white supremacist misogynist racists to flip the overall result Trump's way.

Answer me this honestly: are you prepared to put a decent wedge of cash on that? With Harris available at 2.7 on the exchanges, it would seem to be a no-brainer for a 2-horse race that you’re that confident about.

 

[Bozza]

After reading about the Republican's Puerto Rico faux pas - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj7689v757o - I headed to Oddschecker to see what the curnend odds are.

My positive mood soon soured when I saw how short-priced Trump is currently.

I know some don't see any merit in betting markets, but they absolutely do provide the best guide on probability available to us.

Probability is all it is, of course, but the current odds give Trump twice the chance of winning of Harris, and that is utterly depressing.

 

[Albion my Albion]

As exciting as all of this is, it really shouldn't be exciting at all. It shouldn't matter this much. There's so much noise around something that should be so boring. Government should be boring, it should be about doing the work and there's one party who does but one is a cult. I remain confident that Kamala Harris is going to win and it's going to be important for the world that she does. But what happens to the 70 million people voting for Trump? Even if only a third of them are hardline MAGA, that's 20 million people who are furious with reality. What happens next?

They whine and gripe and maybe try a rally that turns to violence and hurt people that are charged with upholding the law but I truly feel this movement will die out and lose power. Much like the Ku Klux Klan of the 1920s. They were extremely powerful during that time but eventually that movement died down to a much much smaller number.

 

[Albion my Albion]

Answer me this honestly: are you prepared to put a decent wedge of cash on that? With Harris available at 2.7 on the exchanges, it would seem to be a no-brainer for a 2-horse race that you’re that confident about.

I've no confidence at all and would put no money on this election.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

No he didn't say that. That's distorted half truth.



I would argue she is much busier than him this week, and it wouldnt have taken too much for him to jump on a bizjet and do the hour.

Eh. He was turned down because he wanted to do 3 hours and she didn't want to travel to him

I think it's fair he wants the same time for both for fairness , but it's no real loss for her either

 

[Seagull58]

If Trump cannot become President legally or in an illegal power grab, he's likely going to Jail. Guess he thinks he has nothing to lose at 78 years old, so may as well go all in on another coup, including violent insurrection to end of the line?

I agree about them trying now to undermine legitimacy, it's all feeding the narrative they will use, as for anything like elections to be successful you need both reality and public perceptions to match.....

The reality is the US election is one of the safest and most democratic on earth, but that matters not if you can demean and undermine with lies, so enough people genuinely think it's not.

That's Trumps ground game.

His ground game also includes voter suppression and ballot destruction in swing states.

 

[US Seagull]

They whine and gripe and maybe try a rally that turns to violence and hurt people that are charged with upholding the law but I truly feel this movement will die out and lose power. Much like the Ku Klux Klan of the 1920s. They were extremely powerful during that time but eventually that movement died down to a much much smaller number.

I definitely think it will not live on past the end of Trump (whatever "end" means here). Trump is a black swan event. Many others will (and already have) try to inherit the MAGA crown, but they don't have the savant-like skill of Trump to dominate the media, get away with stuff that would sink dozens of political careers and command irrational, cult-like loyalty.

People like DeSantis tried to be "Trump without the baggage", but instead of seizing a movement, he just looked like a massive asshole.

 

[Seagull58]

After reading about the Republican's Puerto Rico faux pas - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj7689v757o - I headed to Oddschecker to see what the curnend odds are.

My positive mood soon soured when I saw how short-priced Trump is currently.

I know some don't see any merit in betting markets, but they absolutely do provide the best guide on probability available to us.

Probability is all it is, of course, but the current odds give Trump twice the chance of winning of Harris, and that is utterly depressing.

Musk and his fascist mates are throwing millions at the markets to move the odds.

 

[Albion my Albion]

DeSantis

he just looked like a massive asshole.

For the most part DeSantis still acts like a massive arsehole. He just withdrew from the race for the Republican nomination for US president in 2024.

 

[Mellotron]

After reading about the Republican's Puerto Rico faux pas - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj7689v757o - I headed to Oddschecker to see what the curnend odds are.

My positive mood soon soured when I saw how short-priced Trump is currently.

I know some don't see any merit in betting markets, but they absolutely do provide the best guide on probability available to us.

Probability is all it is, of course, but the current odds give Trump twice the chance of winning of Harris, and that is utterly depressing.

Isn't it largely based on how much money is being put on each candidate?

Pretty pertinent given the exact picture that MAGA side is trying to paint, of them somehow losing an election they were winning BIGLY in?

Surely the best thing to look at is ACTUAL turn out, which looks very positive so far?

You genuinely believe Trump has a 66% chance of winning despite NEVER being in front of Harris in the poll of polls? Really?

I would strongly debate the part in bold.

 

[Seagull58]

Answer me this honestly: are you prepared to put a decent wedge of cash on that? With Harris available at 2.7 on the exchanges, it would seem to be a no-brainer for a 2-horse race that you’re that confident about.

I have a Betfair account and a skyBet account with some funds in it, so I'll take a look at the odds and see.

 

[Triggaaar]

After reading about the Republican's Puerto Rico faux pas - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgj7689v757o - I headed to Oddschecker to see what the curnend odds are.

My positive mood soon soured when I saw how short-priced Trump is currently.

I know some don't see any merit in betting markets, but they absolutely do provide the best guide on probability available to us.

Probability is all it is, of course, but the current odds give Trump twice the chance of winning of Harris, and that is utterly depressing.

How much money has been placed?

Given the strategy for the Trump campaign is to claim he's winning, would it not be worth Musk placing large bets to affect the odds?

The odds swung a huge amount quickly. The only indication people can have for whether he'll win is checking the polls. Have independent polls swung in his favour?

 

[Mellotron]

How much money has been placed?

Given the strategy for the Trump campaign is to claim he's winning, would it not be worth Musk placing large bets to affect the odds?

The odds swung a huge amount quickly. The only indication people can have for whether he'll win is checking the polls. Have independent polls swung in his favour?

This.

There does not appear to be another logical reason why Trump has suddenly swung in the polls recently - there was no event causing it?

There's definitely a lot of fuckery afoot.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

How much money has been placed?

Given the strategy for the Trump campaign is to claim he's winning, would it not be worth Musk placing large bets to affect the odds?

The odds swung a huge amount quickly. The only indication people can have for whether he'll win is checking the polls. Have independent polls swung in his favour?

Trump supporters seem to be saying as they are not as far behind as 2020 it's a positive sign.

Which seems mental from the outside

 

[Mellotron]

Whatever happens, I would bet a HUGE amount of money he will attempt to claim victory on the night.