[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[nwgull]

Tony's a big boy. He can make his own decisions.

Tony Bloom has made a significant chunk of his millions making bets where he’s calculated the odds to be in favour of the punter. This is what people seem to be saying is the case with Harris here.

For what it's worth, I put £20 on Harris when Biden first stepped down at a similar price to now. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd win a few quid, I would like nothing more than to see Trump defeated again. However, if people aren’t prepared to back their assertions that Harris is way overpriced in the betting markets, then it doesn’t give me much confidence that they genuinely believe she actually is.

 

[nwgull]

This is more like it - assuming you’re not loaded and £50 is what you might light a cigar with!

 

[Seagull58]

This is more like it - assuming you’re not loaded and £50 is what you might light a cigar with!

You can see what's remaining in my sky account on the screenshot.
That's not to say I'm not loaded as I've placed that bet from Zanzibar using my VPN.

 

[jordanseagull]

Harris almost at 2/1 on Betfair exchange now. Been drifting like a barge for a week or two.

 

[Mellotron]

Despite what I said above - that a Harris win is nowhere near guaranteed - I am genuinely tempted to put a bet on. The betting markets are at odds with the polling and the early turnout.

 

[Springal]

Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets

 

[Mellotron]

Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets

Was important he was caught and jailed quickly, to stop more people thinking it's a good idea.

Actual scum. Enemy of democracy.

 

[jcdenton08]

Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets

He looks exactly as you’d expect

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I thought they won in 2020? So difficult to keep up

Yep. Trump is actuality president now and Biden is an AI bot who is being controlled by the fake news-hating, woke-defying anti deep state metropolitan elite patriots. Hence why he appears to glitch now and again.

The Greatest President Of All Time Is actually gearing up for his THIRD term. Unprecedented

 

[Insel affe]

He looks exactly as you’d expect

Swedish looking ?

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Tony Bloom has made a significant chunk of his millions making bets where he’s calculated the odds to be in favour of the punter. This is what people seem to be saying is the case with Harris here.

For what it's worth, I put £20 on Harris when Biden first stepped down at a similar price to now. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd win a few quid, I would like nothing more than to see Trump defeated again. However, if people aren’t prepared to back their assertions that Harris is way overpriced in the betting markets, then it doesn’t give me much confidence that they genuinely believe she actually is.

Just because you think something doesn't mean you have to bet on it! I'm pretty sure it's going to rain at some point between now and Christmas, but I'm not about to open an account with BetMonkey and hand over a load of cash to it

 

[US Seagull]

Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets

They also caught some of that rampant voter fraud!

Northern Minnesota woman charged with voter fraud in forgery of dead mom’s name

Danielle Christine Miller of Nashwauk told a deputy that her mother was an avid supporter of presidential candidate Donald Trump.

www.startribune.com

 

[schmunk]

I'm pretty sure it's going to rain at some point between now and Christmas, but I'm not about to open an account with BetMonkey and hand over a load of cash to it

What odds are they giving? I'll take a piece of that action.

 

[jcdenton08]

Swedish looking ?

Crazy looking

 

[US Seagull]

Tony Bloom has made a significant chunk of his millions making bets where he’s calculated the odds to be in favour of the punter. This is what people seem to be saying is the case with Harris here.

For what it's worth, I put £20 on Harris when Biden first stepped down at a similar price to now. Notwithstanding the fact that I'd win a few quid, I would like nothing more than to see Trump defeated again. However, if people aren’t prepared to back their assertions that Harris is way overpriced in the betting markets, then it doesn’t give me much confidence that they genuinely believe she actually is.

Good for him, good for you.

I don't gamble. Period.

I'm not telling anybody else what to do or not do, that's just you doing that.

 

[Zeberdi]

This is a good (and short article) - explains why there might be discrepancies between betting and polling.

Financial markets use two types of data to predict outcome - fundamentals and technicals - data analysts predicting presidential campaigns use the same data categories:

“The fundamentals encapsulate the type of campaign, from radical to centrist, that the candidates run, the economic circumstances at election time, information on the dueling ground games, and how the contestants impress voters on charisma and credibility. The technicals divide into two categories: the polls, and the political prediction or betting markets …. But in the 2024 race for the White House, the fundamentals and technicals are thoroughly out of whack.“

“We’ve never seen a disconnect like this in any modern presidential election, or maybe any presidential race ever,” says one data scientist.

The 'fundamentals' say Harris should win, but the 'technicals' show a big lead for Trump say two leading election watchers

In presidential elections, fundamental and technical analysis are also the two leading methods for handicapping the outcome.

fortune.com

On that basis, the polling could be way out or the betting!

 

[Triggaaar]

Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets

Trump wants to claim his elections get stolen, but the person burning ballots is a, drum role, you're just not going to believe this - a Republican! I mean who could have guessed?

The obvious question though, is how do they deal with the missing votes?

 

[Withdean South Stand]

Trump wants to claim his elections get stolen, but the person burning ballots is a, drum role, you're just not going to believe this - a Republican! I mean who could have guessed?

The obvious question though, is how do they deal with the missing votes?

Presumably anyone who posted their vote in that dropbox will be able to report that they had submitted their vote, and they'll get a new ballot and have to fill it out again. Then when it's submitted and counted, it will only be counted once and will stand up to any and all recounts which will be demanded by one side. But it does depend, presumably, on the voters who used that dropbox notifying the authorities and getting a replacement in good time.

 

[Bodian]

Seems mad they just have ballot boxes sitting on the side of streets

They also caught some of that rampant voter fraud!

Northern Minnesota woman charged with voter fraud in forgery of dead mom’s name

Danielle Christine Miller of Nashwauk told a deputy that her mother was an avid supporter of presidential candidate Donald Trump.

www.startribune.com

Hang on, am I missing something? The only people so far caught trying to rig ballots are Republicans?? That can't be right.

I seem to recall that the only people charged with electoral fraud back in 2020 after all the hoo-hah were Republican fake electors. Is there some sort of pattern here...?

 

[Triggaaar]

Presumably anyone who posted their vote in that dropbox will be able to report that they had submitted their vote, and they'll get a new ballot and have to fill it out again. Then when it's submitted and counted, it will only be counted once and will stand up to any and all recounts which will be demanded by one side. But it does depend, presumably, on the voters who used that dropbox notifying the authorities and getting a replacement in good time.

And what if some said they used that box, but they didn't, so they get to vote twice? Will that be easy for authorities to check?