[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

So, US and Ukraine are meeting today. I fear more negativity from the US. Surely for any peace deal they need to meet Russia as well. Yet apart from Trump saying he finds them easier to deal with - we hear nothing of any peace discussions. Putin shows no sign of wanting peace or any compromise. So, will today just be pressurising Ukraine to give up their land? And when they say 'no' Trump will blame them for no ceasefire.

Just FYI, I think negotiators Waltz, Rubio etc are meeting Ukrainian delegation tomorrow.

Today Zelenskyy is meeting the crown Prince MBS, and leaving before the negotiations start, but weirdly or rather coincidentally Trump is heading there too to sign a big Saudi investment deal....

Could it be a ruse for Zelensky and Trump to secretly talk behind closed doors?

 

[Triggaaar]

If true, and let’s presume it is……….then it won’t be long for the Ukrainians to be rolling the Russians back.

No, you're misunderstanding how this war is going. Defending is proving a lot easier than attacking. The Russian have tried time and time again to attack with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, but they get taken out by mines and drones. So they don't have the numbers they used to have. That doesn't mean Ukraine can attack in their tanks, because they will fall to the same fate of mines and drones. So it remains a stalemate.

 

[peterward]

really Interesting article and perspective, on french paywalled Le Figaro, link below should be unpaywalled.

Nate Vance, JD's cousin has fought as a volunteer on the front lines in Ukraine for 2 1/2 years. His opinion of what JD is doing and has done is a great insight.

https://archive.ph/cIX3d

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

If true, and let’s presume it is……….then it won’t be long for the Ukrainians to be rolling the Russians back. Given that you posted on Saturday and you have such an abundance of military knowledge how long do you think it will take?

You are actually funny in a sad sort of way.

i have a passing interest in military history but nothing more I also work in the industry, it doesn’t make me an expert but at least i have an understanding which is more than could be said for you.

Holding territory is a hell of a lot easier than taking it. The conventional view is that you need a ratio of 3:1 of attacking forces v defensive forces however the type of kit you have can make a big difference to the ratio. The second issue you have is that of holding the territory which is another ball game entirely.
Your premise has been that Ukraine couldn’t win a war and as such europe shouldn’t support them, whereas in reality Russia can’t win the war nor make any further advances, the fact they are on their arse makes your arguments meaningless.

3/10 must try harder.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

No, you're misunderstanding how this war is going. Defending is proving a lot easier than attacking. The Russian have tried time and time again to attack with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, but they get taken out by mines and drones. So they don't have the numbers they used to have. That doesn't mean Ukraine can attack in their tanks, because they will fall to the same fate of mines and drones. So it remains a stalemate.

He’s not very bright is he? Racist and stupid. Who knew!

 

[Eric the meek]

really Interesting article and perspective, on french paywalled Le Figaro, link below should be unpaywalled.

Nate Vance, JD's cousin has fought as a volunteer on the front lines in Ukraine for 2 1/2 years. His opinion of what JD is doing and has done is a great insight.

https://archive.ph/cIX3d

Interesting that Nate says he contacted JD a number of times, always with no reply. JD could have got valuable insight on the war, but chose not to.

Instead, he tells Zelensky about the propaganda tours of Bucha.

 

[peterward]

Interesting that Nate says he contacted JD a number of times, always with no reply. JD could have got valuable insight on the war, but chose not to.

Instead, he tells Zelensky about the propaganda tours of Bucha.

Nates story and the juxtaposition of his cousins actions, as you cite, is something that needs to be amplified.

This would be the perfect Christiane Amanpour interview.

 

[Eric the meek]

New improved air defence systems for Ukraine are on the way.

 

[peterward]

 

[Eric the meek]

Following Ukraine's aim to produce 4 million drones this year, announced in Jake Broe's video (at 04:45) in post 23,667, here we have a solid
statement of intent and an indication of what the war will look like this year.

 

[Eric the meek]

While we're on drones, they are reported to be getting more effective

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

He really is a twat BUT my understanding is that the ration of US v Europe et al military support was 51/49, so whilst the US are pulling out the EU/UK are stepping up, added to this Turkey are increasing their support. With the failure of the attempted Russian breakout and the lack of a spring offensive from Russia, the cards are slowly falling into Ukraine hands.
i do believe that from A European point of view a case of ‘don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out’. He’s taken his ball home but Ukraine are being offered others.

Tactically it doesn’t make sense as you can’t threaten to remove your support if you are already taking down the infrastructur.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

If you look at this in the cold light of day Trump has a very small window of opportunity in which to screw Ukraine over. Once Ukraine allies start supplying replacements for the US kit, his hand is very much reduced. He could support Russia but that wouldn’t get much traction in the US as even his own party are starting to get nervous, added to that the US economy is going to hell in a hand cart, so he’ll have more pressing matters to worry about.
Musk is looking increasingly flakey as well so it will be an interesting few months.

 

[Scappa]

According to Oryx, an independent organization that uses photographic and video evidence to verify equipment losses - therefore very likely to be understating the numbers - the 3:1 ratio mentioned by @Deportivo Seagull is very close to where we are now.


Russia

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

Russia - 20577, of which: destroyed: 15567, damaged: 861, abandoned: 1134, captured: 3015​

Losses excluding Recon Drones and Trucks - 16126, of which: destroyed: 12051, damaged: 758, abandoned: 1081, captured: 2236​

Losses of Armoured Combat Vehicles [Tanks, AFVs, IFVs, APCs, and MRAPs] - 11951, of which: destroyed: 9062, damaged: 367, abandoned: 986, captured: 1536​

Ukraine

Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Ukraine - 7965, of which: destroyed: 5762, damaged: 558, abandoned: 439, captured: 1206​

Losses excluding Recon Drones and Trucks - 6401, of which: destroyed: 4619, damaged: 525, abandoned: 423, captured: 844​

Losses of Armoured Combat Vehicles [Tanks, AFVs, IFVs, APCs, and MRAPs] - 4003, of which: destroyed: 2884, damaged: 231, abandoned: 348, captured: 540​

It should be noted that among those Russian numbers are 28 vessels, including the Navy flagship Moskva and a Kilo class submarine, lost to a nation without a navy.

Consider also that Russia are patching up obsolete hardware that was deactivated decades ago and left in storage such is the extent of their losses - T-54/5s, a design which was first produced in the late 40s are finding their way to the front lines

 

[Sirnormangall]

Elon Musk is backpedalling.

Let’s hope that’s true. But Musk has already said and done so much that’s damaging, many businesses and countries will no longer trust him. Good.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Let’s hope that’s true. But Musk has already said and done so much that’s damaging, many businesses and countries will no longer trust him. Good.

I think he’s just come to the realisation that he is viewed as toxic and that anything he is involved with will be targeted. It maybe that he is now in ‘damage limitation‘ mode. The other thing ref Starlink is that there are other options becoming available. The problem these options have/had is that there was never any reason for Starlink users to move to another solution, that is not the case now. Starlink are going to have to come up wits some very compelling reasons for customers to stay. It is not helped that Musk is a lying piece of shit and not to be trusted.

 

[fly high]

New improved air defence systems for Ukraine are on the way.

Are these better than US ones? Could completely mess their defense companies if everyone starts finding out US weapons aren't as good as other countries.

 

[fly high]

While we're on drones, they are reported to be getting more effective

When this war is over Ukraine can make it's fortune producing it's inventive drones for sale. I really hope the MOD is looking to copy (paying royalties) their designs & not waste multi millions on crappier ones.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Are these better than US ones? Could completely mess their defense companies if everyone starts finding out US weapons aren't as good as other countries.

It’s not a case that the US kit isn’t any good, more that there are alternatives available that give similar performance.

From what I can see the drive by Europe is to wheen itself off US military kit (where possible) and invest internally. It will take time but the pain for US defence companies is going to be very painful, it won’t be easy for Europe to disengage but now is the ideal time to do it whilst Russia is a mess.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

OK, I'm posting this because it's different to all his previous videos. Normally, very sobre and matter-of-fact, Peter is now genuinely worried and is seriously considering the idea that Russia has penetrated the White House.