The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[JC Footy Genius]

It was only a matter of time before India and China got their shit together so I don't buy the shrinking market share argument as an indicator of failure. I'm not convinced about the nationalism argument either - which countries are breaking up?

Europe has some serious issues to resolve but nothing that can't be fixed.

I don't think poor performance of the EU is down to China and India raising their game as this would effect all other trade/custom zones. (Growth in China is and has been slowing)

According to the IMF, every part of the world grew in 2014 except the EU. Africa, Asia, North and South America and Australasia have all recovered fully from the 2008 crash, but Europe has picked up a bug that it can’t shake off. Incredibly, the Eurozone faces its third recession in six years.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/01/daniel-hannan-mep-nine-myths-about-the-eu.html

The rise in nationalism across Europe has been well documented and is hardly surprising considering the ongoing economic and migrant problems have tested the EU and to put it politely .. found it wanting. In the past few months we have had EU members unilaterally reinstating border controls, withdrawing an ambassador (Greece from Austria), building numerous fences - walls -barriers, waving through migrants to other countries and of course mass sexual assaults. The country that encouraged the 1 million plus migrants to come is now insisting most other EU countries should take a quota to spread the burden.

On top of all this the authorities tell us there are at least 5000 terrorists trained in the war zones of Syria and elsewhere floating round European continent after taking advantage of Europe's porous external border. Paris like attacks and far worse must be likely if not inevitable fuelling further division and instability.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ar-right-parties-Europe-Germany-Sweden-France

Fixing the Eurozone and Migrant problems will probably take years assuming that there actually is a realistic achievable solution to either crisis.

Brexit will not change the fundamentals of these problems but it will give us the chance to increase our border security and a chance to forge our own trade deals with emerging and growing markets.

 

[5ways]

I don't know if this has been posted and apologies if it has but I couldn't help but pick up on this comment of yours. Here's a world-renowned economist giving his expert views on UK trading with Europe if we vote to leave.

"Echoing Cameron, proponents for Europe say that Britain will incur severe economic costs by leaving the European Union. Britain’s trade with Europe will collapse, they say, and the City of London will lose its preeminence. Claims of dire consequences by business executives are particularly unreliable. In 1999, Adair Turner, then director general of the Confederation of Business and Industry supported Britain joining the euro. Now the number crunchers torture the data to show that British productivity could decline precipitously. This is economic nonsense."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...s-johnson-is-right-about-europe-a6909811.html

He also ticks another important box for you - neutrality/independence - he's an ex-IMF assistant director, ex World Bank, a Princeton professor from India who now works for Bruegel in Europe, a think-tank whose mission statement is a commitment to impartiality, openness and excellence. And it's from the Independent, hardly a torch-bearer for the OUT campaign.

Some interesting points but I think

"The European Union claims legitimacy on the basis that national governments are incapable of meeting the needs of their citizens and supranational governance is needed to increase the welfare of all Europeans."

This is unfair. It is that our shared prosperity and security is enhanced when we pull together. And yes the governance structure is currently unequal but it will not always be the case.

"For this reason, European governance has been prone to delays and half measures during the never-ending eurozone distress. And now we may well be seeing breakdown of that fragile structure under the stress of the refugee crisis."

Yes but the European project is unique in world history. Structures of governance are being remolded. The refugee crisis and Eurozone crisis are stress-tests. They provide a precedent about how to deal with future problems and crisis that you can learn from. There currently isn't much of a playbook. As the project matures the response will become better with practice. Being on the right side of history I think would be to stick around once the EU has got over its teething problems.

 

[5ways]

Another idea to be lobbed into the thought pool (ploip!)

Cameron has been admirably brave in actually offering a referendum to the British public however; that is where my admiration of him on this issue ends. In terms of his negotiation and subsequent deal, I believe that he has unwittingly pushed the nation much closer to choosing "out". The single defining issue that concerns most people appears to be immigration: an issue which the deal does not even touch. The deal that has been obtained pertains to issues that are almost negligible in most peoples' minds. It is possible that this deal will underscore just how powerless the country is in the face of the EU and will vote accordingly. Early polling, while varied, certainly hasn't swung behind Cameron.

This brings me to another interesting point. What happens if we do vote "out"? The collective EU establishment has been vocal in suggesting that this is a one-time vote, that it will be binding and that there will be no possibility of further negotiation in the event of our asking for Brexit. As one of the leading nations paying into the EU I find it very hard to believe that it will be prepared to let us leave so readily. The EU also proved itself unable to accept the "no" votes of The Netherlands and Ireland when they failed to agree constitutional change required by new treaties. Financial inducements were offered until the "correct" answer was obtained.

If we do vote for Brexit, I strongly suspect that the real negotiations would begin. The EU will struggle to even afford to lose the UK and may be forced back to the negotiating table to make a better offer. It would be one hell of a high risk strategy on our part but it could well lead to a more meaningful deal being offered.

No. This is a fantasy. It has been said time and again but EU leaders, Cameron, Merkel etc that this is it. Take it or leave it.

 

[heathgate]

What the fook has Merkel got to do with it.... this is a decision for us here in the UK. Merkel doesn't own the EU, if at some distant time, conditions improve for us to rejoin, you can bet that they will snap our hands off in an instant.

 

[pastafarian]

No. This is a fantasy. It has been said time and again but EU leaders, Cameron, Merkel etc that this is it. Take it or leave it.

when did Cameron and Merkel start running the EU

 

[Deleted member 22389]

when did Cameron and Merkel start running the EU

Merkel, she has enough of her own problems to deal with. The Germans are losing confidence in her and her party.

 

[sten_super]

I don't think poor performance of the EU is down to China and India raising their game as this would effect all other trade/custom zones. (Growth in China is and has been slowing)

According to the IMF, every part of the world grew in 2014 except the EU. Africa, Asia, North and South America and Australasia have all recovered fully from the 2008 crash, but Europe has picked up a bug that it can’t shake off. Incredibly, the Eurozone faces its third recession in six years.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/01/daniel-hannan-mep-nine-myths-about-the-eu.html

I don't trust Hannan as far as I can throw him (and that's not very far). He is the worst on either side of the debate in terms of misusing statistics and data to suit his argument. The quote didn't ring true to me, and sure enough it appears that it's rubbish. You can see the IMF data here.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

As you say, the EU is not perfect. But those who consider Remainers to be fools should consider the view of a man who knows it inside out and who has every reason to dislike it, Yanis Varoufakis. In spite of being one of its harshest and most outspoken critics, he is unequivocally in favour of the UK, like Greece, remaining in the EU and helping to reform it from the inside. I do look forward to hearing him talking in Brighton in May.

Many of us disagree with a lot of what he has said but his position shows it is possible to be a quiet and considered remainer. Some of the posters on here willt consider him to be a lying fascist of course.

I agree with much of his criticism of the EU and yes he has first hand experience but I don't for the life of me see any evidence of remaining in leading to substantial fundamental reforms which would address the many problems he identifies.

Greece is still being dumped on, in fact their situation is worsening with the migrant crisis. The recent Cameron negotiation also shows how little interest the rest of Europe has in substantial fundamental reform. I hope he enjoys his new role as economic advisor to Jeremy Corbyn though.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I don't trust Hannan as far as I can throw him (and that's not very far). He is the worst on either side of the debate in terms of misusing statistics and data to suit his argument. The quote didn't ring true to me, and sure enough it appears that it's rubbish. You can see the IMF data here.

I like him, he has years of experience studying the EU from close quarters. As for his use of statistics it is hard to compare as we don't know what he is specifically referring to. Perhaps he was being conveniently vague

Sorry to say I gave up trying to cross reference economic/trade between the Euro Area or EU nations including/excluding the UK compared to other parts of the world ... I am none the wiser.

 

[brighton fella]

Well said. I am sure you already understand how simple the decisions seem to be for those wanting Out, and how they feel that anyone disagreeing with them is hopelessly deluded. (You got away lightly with being called a loon. I'm a wet dreams Tory according to one poster on this thread, and a liar who approves of terrible crimes according to another.)

As you say, the EU is not perfect. But those who consider Remainers to be fools should consider the view of a man who knows it inside out and who has every reason to dislike it, Yanis Varoufakis. In spite of being one of its harshest and most outspoken critics, he is unequivocally in favour of the UK, like Greece, remaining in the EU and helping to reform it from the inside. I do look forward to hearing him talking in Brighton in May.

Many of us disagree with a lot of what he has said but his position shows it is possible to be a quiet and considered remainer. Some of the posters on here willt consider him to be a lying fascist of course.

whether the EU is a good thing or not i happen to know the calibre of these c*nts running it, it is not a very wise thing to back them if you know their true intentions,. don't just take my word on this research the c*nts for yourself.. the pro's and cons on both sides of the argument matter not when you know exactly what these horrible c*nts are up to.

 

[jimhigham]

No. This is a fantasy. It has been said time and again but EU leaders, Cameron, Merkel etc that this is it. Take it or leave it.

I know that they have said this but I simply do not believe it. It runs contrary to the way the EU has acted for the last two decades whenever it has been faced with a road block. They pretty much have to say this.

Anyway, this thought in no way changes how I am going to vote. It's just speculation on what I think could occur in the event of an out vote.

 

[pastafarian]

when do the french do what is legal if the French pepole want to move on the refugees they will like french Fishermen farmers ferry workers etc..

If the French wanted to move the migrants on to the UK they could try tomorrow. They simply have to tear up the treaty with us. If it is such a bad deal for them you have to ask why havnt they already done that? Instead they are spending millions with us to secure the border even more,doesnt make much sense does it.

The man in charge of these matters Bernard Cazeneuve minister of the interior,reiterated yesterday there is no intention to do this and cause a humanitarian crisis,he also said of Emmanuel Macron,the minister of the economy who threatened the borders being opened at the beginning of the week,that he is a very good minister but should stick to his field of expertise

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2016/03/04/cazeneuve-macron-calais-politique_n_9381490.html

of all the scare stories doing the rounds this is by far the dirtiest and probably the dimmest as well,it really has no backbone or basis in reality.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

No. This is a fantasy. It has been said time and again but EU leaders, Cameron, Merkel etc that this is it. Take it or leave it.

I agree, leave means leave. The British Government would activate the mechanism and we'd be gone. Final.

However, before the mechanism is activated it is possible that the PM could decline to start leaving procedures, as technically the referendum is not legally binding, but (a) Dave would have to have a lot of courage to not start exit procedures - and he'd probably be booted out by his own party - and (b) he'd have to have an astoundingly good reason not to start exit procedures.

 

[LlcoolJ]

I like him

You LIKE Daniel Hannan? I've either been massively "whooshed" or.... just wow. I don't think I've ever seen or heard those words in that order before.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

whether the EU is a good thing or not i happen to know the calibre of these c*nts running it, it is not a very wise thing to back them if you know their true intentions,. don't just take my word on this research the c*nts for yourself.. the pro's and cons on both sides of the argument matter not when you know exactly what these horrible c*nts are up to.

Well with arguments like this the outers are bound to triumph.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

when did Cameron and Merkel start running the EU

I think you missed 5ways' "etc".

 

[Buzzer]

Some interesting points but I think

"The European Union claims legitimacy on the basis that national governments are incapable of meeting the needs of their citizens and supranational governance is needed to increase the welfare of all Europeans."

This is unfair. It is that our shared prosperity and security is enhanced when we pull together. And yes the governance structure is currently unequal but it will not always be the case.

"For this reason, European governance has been prone to delays and half measures during the never-ending eurozone distress. And now we may well be seeing breakdown of that fragile structure under the stress of the refugee crisis."

Yes but the European project is unique in world history. Structures of governance are being remolded. The refugee crisis and Eurozone crisis are stress-tests. They provide a precedent about how to deal with future problems and crisis that you can learn from. There currently isn't much of a playbook. As the project matures the response will become better with practice. Being on the right side of history I think would be to stick around once the EU has got over its teething problems.

I know there are as many opinions as there are economists but at least Mody is neutral and has some scientific analysis to his arguments. Sorry but to me your argument is almost entirely conjecture and it comes with a huge slice of wishful thinking. I think you're also very wrong in big parts. Where is Greece's enhanced prosperity? What do you mean by enhanced security? Is France a safer country than Norway by virtue of being in the EU? I don't think so. It's far too broad a subject to give any definitive answer to.

The governance structure will not always be unequal? Oh really. What makes you say that?

Once the EU gets over its teething problems? It's been around for nearly 60 years. It's not some ship just set sail and we're threatening to jump ship before its left port. It's a fully mature system.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You LIKE Daniel Hannan? I've either been massively "whooshed" or.... just wow. I don't think I've ever seen or heard those words in that order before.

My guilty pleasure .... look he even wants you to sack him!

In favour of Brexit: Daniel Hannan on why he should be sacked as an MEP

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...nan-on-why-he-should-be-sacked-as-an-MEP.html

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

It amazes me how anyone could view the European Parliament as a democratic bastion for British interests.

Unable to defend the UK’s interest

Over the last European Parliamentary term (2009-14), a majority of British MEPs (across UK party lines) opposed 576 motions out of a total 1,936 that were put before the Parliament.

Of those 576 motions, 485 were nonetheless approved by the rest of the Parliament despite the opposition of a majority of British MEPs. This is a failure rate of 84 per cent.

This ‘failure rate’ is defined as the number of times a majority of British MEPs opposed a motion deemed to be against British interests, but were unsuccessful in preventing it being passed. This inability to block proposals is often due to the small number of seats the UK has in the European Parliament, which means British MEPs are often outvoted and unable to stop legislation passing into European and British law.

http://forbritain.org/MEPs votes.pdf[/QUOTEY

Your the one who said 'The European Parliament as a democratic bastion for British interests'

I said it has a more democratic process than the British parliament that is woefully outdated and full of 'Rotton Borough MP's that have no desire to change it. Cameroon is trying desperately to reduce MP's to 600 in number while stuffing the Lords (our second not so democratic chamber) with Tories due to his party losing a vote on welfare.

I don't know how much of parliament you get to watch (and if you do how much you enjoy) but if you have seen the recent Euro debates the politicians arguing against European Unity, just appear to be old Etonian White British Imperialists, I feel far more connected to people in Europe and feel far more European than any connection to these elite, As for our representatives MEP's, (I am lucky to have at least Keith Taylor) the little I see of European Parliament the anti Euro bridge are rarely there, if they are they just guffaw a lot, take a lot of money out for peesonal and political use and in the best of supporting British Interests don't turn up for votes or to argue our case.

Farage has famously only turned up for one session out of 42 when appointed onto the European fishery committee and famously been in the building and not voted 3 times when he could have increased British fishermans quotas by voting. Then on his campaigning had the old school boy bare faced check to say how europe is destroying our fishing industry.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Your the one who said 'The European Parliament as a democratic bastion for British interests'

I said it has a more democratic process than the British parliament that is woefully outdated and full of 'Rotton Borough MP's that have no desire to change it. Cameroon is trying desperately to reduce MP's to 600 in number while stuffing the Lords (our second not so democratic chamber) with Tories due to his party losing a vote on welfare.

I don't know how much of parliament you get to watch (and if you do how much you enjoy) but if you have seen the recent Euro debates the politicians arguing against European Unity, just appear to be old Etonian White British Imperialists, I feel far more connected to people in Europe and feel far more European than any connection to these elite, As for our representatives MEP's, (I am lucky to have at least Keith Taylor) the little I see of European Parliament the anti Euro bridge are rarely there, if they are they just guffaw a lot, take a lot of money out for peesonal and political use and in the best of supporting British Interests don't turn up for votes or to argue our case.

Farage has famously only turned up for one session out of 42 when appointed onto the European fishery committee and famously been in the building and not voted 3 times when he could have increased British fishermans quotas by voting. Then on his campaigning had the old school boy bare faced check to say how europe is destroying our fishing industry.

I thought one of the main measures of any democratic process is how well our views are represented and acted on. You may not like the look of some of our MP's or feel a greater affiliation to Europe but that doesn't change the arithmetic. Even if all of our elected representatives could speak with one voice in Europe and did turn up they could still be outvoted and completely ignored.