The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[Lincoln Imp]

The EU is very keen to have it's own army, The European Commission President is a big fan so is Mrs Merkel. The EU has three Presidents with far more power than our Monarch. The EU of course has rafts of rules, laws and regulations. So apart from all this plus a currency, anthem , flag , enshrined goal of ever closer union/centralizing of power what could a patriotic Scotsman possibly have to fear ....

If you are claiming that the countries of the European Union are more rigidly connected at government level than those of the United Kingdom then I think it is probably best that I let you get on with it.

 

[pastafarian]

If we follow either the Norway or Swiss model we will have to accept free movement

Simple answer to that isnt there.

Dont follow the Norway or Swiss Model

Forge a British model..........its not rocket science.


And lets see what happens with Switzerland as they are due to implement their referendum against free movement

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The examples are used by the Out campaign too. Pastafarian brought up the WTO model, Breixters have long talked about the Norway model too. Out tries to point and them and say they get the benefits but not the cost, that is largely untrue and we wouldn't extract ourselves from dealing with, or paying into, the EU if we left. In can actually say 'this is the deal', this is where we stand - it's there on the table take it or leave it.

I can only predict what the EU will look like in two years, probably bumbling along, hopefully growing. I know that it won't disappear. I can say with more certainty what the UK will look like if we leave the EU because we see the signs already: a crash in the pound, deep uncertainty which will hit inward investment, the loss of all our free trade agreements outside the EU, jobs moving overseas, legal limbo inside the EU, and a long and painful process of renegotiation. How many years of renegotiation do we have to suffer for this 'victory'?

Fair point some Brexit campaigners have referred to Norway/Switzerland which has been a mistake if making a direct comparison. I think your being extremely unfair in expecting the out campaign to predict/guarantee a specific deal we can achieve if we leave. But I think they should be clearer setting out basic principles and goals to give the public a clearer idea of what they should expect if we vote out, democratic accountability.

Just to remind you the Prime Minister who you choose to believe/support and admire on many Brexit issues said the EU would probably be unrecognisable in a few years time because of the Euro Crisis. The biggest internal threat to the European economy is not Brexit but the Euro crisis. The biggest threat to European unity/stability is not Brexit it is the Migrant crisis.

 

[pastafarian]

The examples are used by the Out campaign too. Pastafarian brought up the WTO model,

No i didnt do that at all

I pointed out WTO regulations meant everyone seeking a Free Trade Agreement(FTA) with the EU is entitled to to be able to negotiate on a level playing field,free from discrimination the same as any other country seeking an FTA with the EU.

Countries that have FTA`s with the EU do not have to adhere to free movement as a starting point ,so why would the UK?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

And lets see what happens with Switzerland as they are due to implement their referendum against free movement

Are they actually going to do this then? I'm not convinced they are. Two years on from the referendum they now have under a year to impliment something. They've not had any dealings with the EU yet.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

If you are claiming that the countries of the European Union are more rigidly connected at government level than those of the United Kingdom then I think it is probably best that I let you get on with it.

I'm not but the difference is not as great as you suggested. I don't believe any Scotsman/woman interested in retaining sovereignty/ self determination should be under any delusion of what the EU is all about.

 

[cunning fergus]

Oh good grief. Either I am a terrible writer or you are wilfully misinterpreting things. To take your paragraphs in order...

1. I was perfectly clear. People move around when the regulations allow it. I mentioned Irish people in southern England but could equally have mentioned Yorkshiremen. Your suggestion that I was discussing implications on pay, housing, etc is a figment of your imagination. It was not in my mind and it was not in my post. So the direct answer to your question is, er, NO.

2. Again, no. Although Burnham's reference to 'British' workers was probably an example of Andy Burnham being passionate about whatever he thinks his listeners want to hear. If a labour pool is larger then, everything else being equal, pressure on ALL employees; pay will be downwards, including that of incomers. As someone who have been self-employed for 25 years I might understand that better than some. You don't have to be 'working class' to be affected by it, just as you don't have to be middle class to benefit from it.

3. Labour markets are not uncontrolled but they are, like those of all EU states, open.

Can you please take my last post, the one that launched the outburst above, and tell me exactly what I said that leads you to believe I am a wet-dreams Tory. Or something. But do it properly this time. Don't read things that aren't there.

A free labour market has implications, I was pointing out what they are. If you want to infer that workers from Yorkshire moving south or Irish workers moving to the UK has had historically the same implications that we have seen from workers moving to the UK from the EU in the last 15 years you must be mad.

I get it, Andy Burnham is wrong, and you are right, there is no negative implications for British workers having to compete with millions of other workers arriving. There is no wage stagnation, or race to the bottom, no zero hours contracts, no rising black market, no pressure on houses or other public services.

When the Labour Party last year said they would introduce a law to prohibit employers undercutting British workers pay, they were trying to address a problem that didn't exist?

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/105219365249/labour-will-make-it-a-criminal-offence-for

And you think this is not biting hardest on the working class.........the very people that need the most protection.

I really don't know what to make about your point 3, but i guess it reflects your confusion.

An open UK labour market is a free labour market, there is nothing the UK Govt can do to stop more workers arriving to depress wages. You think this is a good thing.

You are a Tory.

 

[Soulman]

Simple answer to that isnt there.

Dont follow the Norway or Swiss Model

Forge a British model..........its not rocket science.


And lets see what happens with Switzerland as they are due to implement their referendum against free movement

The Swiss are obviously not impressed, can't blame them.
Swiss Parliament decides to withdraw the application to join the EU.
"Today is the end of an era for the Europhiles: For years Switzerland has had a request pending to join the Union. But today the country quietly let that application lapse. Its citizens can all see for themselves one of the differences between being in the EU or being outside it. Europhiles have warned for years about the dangers of Switzerland remaining outside the EU. But today Switzerland is stronger and freer as a result of being outside, rather than inside the EU. Independence and non-bureaucratic flexibility is an important part of the Swiss success. Today Swiss polls find those keen on EU membership dwindling in the 5 per cents and today there is an important change in Swiss politics that has been controversially disputed for many years:"
http://www.lukas-reimann.ch/ger_det..._withdraw_the_application_to_join_the_EU.html

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Turkey's agreement doesn't cover services, for example. Which is 80% of the UK economy.

Indeed it doesn't but there's nothing to say our agreement couldn't.

What really irks me is that for so long the IN camp have made statements around our exports possibly being hit with tariffs ( note the word possibly - nobody has provided the documented proof that will definitely happen ) yet what they actually mean is SERVICE exports. Agreed, these are a majority of our exports to the EU but it's typical project fear - just imply it means ALL exports and it might sway a few voters.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

A free labour market has implications, I was pointing out what they are. If you want to infer that workers from Yorkshire moving south or Irish workers moving to the UK has had historically the same implications that we have seen from workers moving to the UK from the EU in the last 15 years you must be mad.

I get it, Andy Burnham is wrong, and you are right, there is no negative implications for British workers having to compete with millions of other workers arriving. There is no wage stagnation, or race to the bottom, no zero hours contracts, no rising black market, no pressure on houses or other public services.

When the Labour Party last year said they would introduce a law to prohibit employers undercutting British workers pay, they were trying to address a problem that didn't exist?

http://press.labour.org.uk/post/105219365249/labour-will-make-it-a-criminal-offence-for

And you think this is not biting hardest on the working class.........the very people that need the most protection.

I really don't know what to make about your point 3, but i guess it reflects your confusion.

An open UK labour market is a free labour market, there is nothing the UK Govt can do to stop more workers arriving to depress wages. You think this is a good thing.

You are a Tory.

Jesus. Are you still prattling on with this Tory nonsense?

 

[5ways]

Fair point some Brexit campaigners have referred to Norway/Switzerland which has been a mistake if making a direct comparison. I think your being extremely unfair in expecting the out campaign to predict/guarantee a specific deal we can achieve if we leave. But I think they should be clearer setting out basic principles and goals to give the public a clearer idea of what they should expect if we vote out, democratic accountability.

Just to remind you the Prime Minister who you choose to believe/support and admire on many Brexit issues said the EU would probably be unrecognisable in a few years time because of the Euro Crisis. The biggest internal threat to the European economy is not Brexit but the Euro crisis. The biggest threat to European unity/stability is not Brexit it is the Migrant crisis.

I agree on both those points. I'm not sure about unrecogisable but different sure. Whatever happens with the Euro though we can't extract ourselves from the consequences, I'd rather we help contribute to the policy to solve it. Whatever that solution is, however tangential our contribution. I'm thinking about this generationally. It's in all our interests to come out the other side with a stronger Eurozone.

Equally the migration issue isn't going away. And right on que we have the FT cover today:

 

[5ways]

Could be that Turkey joins the EU late this year. I am not a fan.
Arguments for and against Turkey’s EU membership.
http://www.debatingeurope.eu/focus/...d-against-turkeys-eu-membership/#.VtdLtEAnPIU

I am positive that will not happen for decades. Probably never. They have completed 1 out of I think 34 chapters, and they can be vetoed by any member state (unless I'm mistaken but I'm pretty sure).

 

[5ways]

No i didnt do that at all

I pointed out WTO regulations meant everyone seeking a Free Trade Agreement(FTA) with the EU is entitled to to be able to negotiate on a level playing field,free from discrimination the same as any other country seeking an FTA with the EU.

Countries that have FTA`s with the EU do not have to adhere to free movement as a starting point ,so why would the UK?

sorry if I misrepresented what you said.

WTO is a bare minimum. It can set ground rules but there is almost no nuance. It is the way in which Peru trades with the EU for example. There are lots of tariffs on everything under base WTO rules, 30% or so for agriculture, 10% for cars and so on. Unless we enter into a formal deal under WTO the EU can only offer us the terms it offers Peru, or Singapore or Botswana. So we begin negotiations to enter a deal. What do the Europeans want? Free movement. What do we want? Market access, and some free movement. Which countries outside the EU but in Europe have free trade deals? Norway (+EEA), and Switzerland. They have free movment (and higher rates of migration) so it's logical to think ours might also. We will have to compromise on free movement.

 

[beorhthelm]

And right on que we have the FT cover today:

lol yeah, if the French bankers wanted to work in France they would do. theres a fundemental culture in The City that just doesnt exist elsewhere. the migrant camp cant simply move to England, the French have to honour international agreements on dealing with refugees, not simply open the border and allow anyone through to UK, and we could just deport them all right back.

 

[pastafarian]

What do the Europeans want? Free movement. What do we want? Market access, and some free movement. Which countries outside the EU but in Europe have free trade deals? Norway (+EEA), and Switzerland. They have free movment (and higher rates of migration) so it's logical to think ours might also. We will have to compromise on free movement.

I don’t know who you are speaking on behalf but its not me. I don’t want any "free" movement of people into the UK let alone "some".I want a controlled immigration policy for the UK with regards to working and residency.Perhaps you can list the other countries outside the EUsigning up for purely a FTA who have had to compromise with regard to free movement.


Its equally logical to think we don’t have to have the same agreements as Norway or Switzerland.
Its equally logical to say we could have trade agreements closer to other countries outside the EU which do NOT have to have free movement.A bespoke British relationship is entirely possible.

Your idea that we must sign up to free movement whatever happens seems to be based purely on the fact we are nearby. That is totally illogical.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I agree on both those points. I'm not sure about unrecogisable but different sure. Whatever happens with the Euro though we can't extract ourselves from the consequences, I'd rather we help contribute to the policy to solve it. Whatever that solution is, however tangential our contribution. I'm thinking about this generationally. It's in all our interests to come out the other side with a stronger Eurozone.

Equally the migration issue isn't going away. And right on que we have the FT cover today: View attachment 72806

True the Eurozone crisis will continue to effect us as long as it continues (foreseeable future). Which is why having the freedom to diversify our trade opportunities away from a stagnating under performing Eurozone is important. The only solutions to this crisis is ever closer fiscal union or disintegration I would rather we were at arms length from either outcome.

It's in all our interests for the democratic wishes of the peoples of all European nation states to be heard and represented not suppressed and ignored for some political unachievable ever closer union.

Yes the migration crisis is not going away, the Calais scare stories are an irrelevant sideshow to what is taking place in Europe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35706238

http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-migrant-crisis-flares-in-greece-1456956214

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world...-violence-Calais-Jungle-Greece-Merkel-Austria

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pean-leaders-demand-urgent-support-for-greece

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35696152

 

[pastafarian]

Are they actually going to do this then? I'm not convinced they are. Two years on from the referendum they now have under a year to impliment something. They've not had any dealings with the EU yet.

Your guess is as good as mine what the actual outcome is going to be,there has been talk that maybe the EU will tell the Swiss to vote again.I spend a fair amount of time in Switzerland,and have family living there.The overwhelming consensus seems to be whichever way you voted in the referendum the actual decision itself is binding between the people and the government,the Swiss are finding the whole notion that an outside organisation could tell them their system of governance is basically meaningless a bit baffling.
You are wrong on the count there have been no dealings,they have been trying to seek some sort of compromise but are bashing their heads against a wall.

From what i understand if nothing can be agreed by the deadline the Swiss will just have to implement the referendum regardless which will obviously put them at odds with other treaties.It could get very very messy indeed. Im not surprised Cameron wanted a referendum this year with a potential Swiss EU bloodbath in the offering in early 2017

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Cameron, Osbourne and others are talking up problems on purpose and the media are finding any fluxuations in the markets and the pound and blaming that on brexit too. Whatever way the markets go there is one thing for certain, there are people in government circles who never ever lose. The only people who are losing and will always lose are the ones at the bottom of the pile, and many more people are slowly heading this way.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Your guess is as good as mine what the actual outcome is going to be,there has been talk that maybe the EU will tell the Swiss to vote again.I spend a fair amount of time in Switzerland,and have family living there.The overwhelming consensus seems to be whichever way you voted in the referendum the actual decision itself is binding between the people and the government,the Swiss are finding the whole notion that an outside organisation could tell them their system of governance is basically meaningless a bit baffling.
You are wrong on the count there have been no dealings,they have been trying to seek some sort of compromise but are bashing their heads against a wall.

From what i understand if nothing can be agreed by the deadline the Swiss will just have to implement the referendum regardless which will obviously put them at odds with other treaties.It could get very very messy indeed. Im not surprised Cameron wanted a referendum this year with a potential Swiss EU bloodbath in the offering in early 2017

Okay, but haven't submitted anything formally. Less than one year strikes me as not enough time to extricate themselves from the treaty. Why have they left it so late? What have they been doing for the past 2 years? I know the EU said its all or nothing with respect to the 4 freedoms......have Switzerland had to accept this?

 

[cunning fergus]

Jesus. Are you still prattling on with this Tory nonsense?

Of course I am.

We know you have no concern for the British working class, you have stated that numerous times before. Like Lincoln Imp, and others, you are quite comfortable that they should continue to struggle for work in an EU wide labour market, and all the other implications on public services that policy brings.

With the likes of HSBC highlighting rising labour costs as a consequence of Brexit, leading Tories and other capitalists CEOs (like BMW) threatening British workers jobs with the prospect of Brexit, I am pretty sure it's in the British workers interests to vote out.

A vote for in merely reinforces the status quo, and this has been devastating for British workers generally, but particularly the working class.

Tories and their capitalist shills will argue nothing needs to change, that is evidently conservative by nature and consistent with their party policy.

Cameron is supporting in...........just like you.