[Politics] The General Election Thread

[beorhthelm]

I am not going to argue with you on whether or not it fits with Keynsian economics, all I am saying is that Corbyn would be buying an asset or assets with the money which over time should pay off the debt incurred in buying them, or in the case of Railways, reduce the annual subsidy from the treasury. It may take a long while, but the loans would be buying the means to repay the loans. Unless the income or saving gained is less than the cost of borrowing.

you're ignoring that the debt will have interest (yield) paid. as example looking up Southern Water the current yield is 6.125%. this has to be funded before you have funds to pay back the capital. or you can just roll over the debt, which may be the plan.

 

[Baldseagull]

Aye...but is it worth replying to a poster (the latter) who is just a troll with not one post about Brighton football club :]

He is not a Brighton supporter, he supports another club, but as some do he visited this site to talk football, and then discovered what a lovely welcoming bunch we all are and stayed to chat politics. His club and ours are no longer in the same division.

 

[drew]

How am I a Troll?

Noun : "a person who makes a deliberately offensive or provocative online post."

Weird.



Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

So comment on my question about composite 13 at the conference then?

 

[Baldseagull]

you're ignoring that the debt will have interest (yield) paid. as example looking up Southern Water the current yield is 6.125%. this has to be funded before you have funds to pay back the capital. or you can just roll over the debt, which may be the plan.

Maybe we are misunderstanding each other here? Not ignoring interest, I have called it cost of borrowing, but I don't understand how it would be linked to the yield of Southern Water Bonds, it would be Government Bonds, wouldnt it? Todays rate is 0.7% for a 10Yr UKBond.

 

[LamieRobertson]

He is not a Brighton supporter, he supports another club, but as some do he visited this site to talk football, and then discovered what a lovely welcoming bunch we all are and stayed to chat politics. His club and ours are no longer in the same division.

 

[beorhthelm]

Maybe we are misunderstanding each other here? Not ignoring interest, I have called it cost of borrowing, but I don't understand how it would be linked to the yield of Southern Water Bonds, it would be Government Bonds, wouldnt it? Todays rate is 0.7% for a 10Yr UKBond.

i was thinking of the existing debt they'd take on. yes the debt may be in form of government bonds, which wont stay around 1% forever and will rise with all this debt being piled on to the government balance sheet.

 

[Baldseagull]

i was thinking of the existing debt they'd take on. yes the debt may be in form of government bonds, which wont stay around 1% forever and will rise with all this debt being piled on to the government balance sheet.

I don't think we would see an increase in the cost of Government borrowing due to an increase of debt, if what they are buying produces income. Debt to GDP ratio is a factor, but so is the ability to service the debt, and that should improve, not worsen, if buying a revenue making asset.

 

[maltaseagull]

Buying Utilities would "pay dividends", that is why Utilities shareholders hold shares in Utilities, just look at is UK Treasury owning 100% of shares.

Only if they make a profit and UK state run businesses have a poor track record in that field.

(Apologies for the pun but I couldn't help thinking of the mess that was British Rail)

 

[Baldseagull]

Only if they make a profit and UK state run businesses have a poor track record in that field.

(Apologies for the pun but I couldn't help thinking of the mess that was British Rail)

There was a bit of engineering by Tory Policy to produce failing Public Utilities in some cases, from Wikipedia, Margaret Thatcher's Conservative government, which had been elected in 1979, had curtailed the RWAs ability to borrow money they deemed necessary for capital projects.[ Daniel Okun said: "Before, they could borrow money everywhere easily. They could get money at very good rates. Restrictions on external borrowing prevented the [RWAs] from getting capital. They were considered ineffective because they could not borrow money. Thatcher prevented them from borrowing and then blamed them for not building."

*RWA = Regional Water Authority

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_privatisation_in_England_and_Wales

 

[nicko31]

Our electoral system is broken.

The 1983 election is the best example I can think of. Thatcher's support was 1.5% down on the previous vote but the Tories won a landslide. It was, inevitably, hailed as an endorsement- but the reality is it wasn't.

The SDP had carved up Labour's vote.

Both the Tories and Labour will never address the truth that as long as we don't have PR then parliament is not representative. Although recently it hasn't been as bad.

A lot of echoes of 1983 but with Brexit thrown in, two main parties on the extremes. The result of this election will depend a lot an tactical voting

On we go, the country literally is staring into the abyss

 

[Hugo Rune]

A lot of echoes of 1983 but with Brexit thrown in, two main parties on the extremes. The result of this election will depend a lot an tactical voting

On we go, the country literally is staring into the abyss

I think there are 4 possible Election pact scenarios at play here.

1. Current situation = Hung Parliament.
2. Tory-Brexit Party alliance = Small Tory majority.
3. Remain Parties alliance. = Small Labour majority.
4. Remain alliance vs leave alliance = Hung Parliament.

I believe that 3 of those options would lead to a 2nd Referendum to finally put Brexit to bed.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I think there are 4 possible Election pact scenarios at play here.

1. Current situation = Hung Parliament.
2. Tory-Brexit Party alliance = Small Tory majority.
3. Remain Parties alliance. = Small Labour majority.
4. Remain alliance vs leave alliance = Hung Parliament.

I believe that 3 of those options would lead to a 2nd Referendum to finally put Brexit to bed.

Are Labour Remain today?

 

[WATFORD zero]

Are Labour Remain today?

Are you supporting Johnson today ?

 

[Is it PotG?]

Are you supporting Johnson today ?

Never voted blue, never will.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Never voted blue, never will.

Nige will be pleased

 

[Is it PotG?]

Nige will be pleased

If you say so, if you say so.

 

[beorhthelm]

I don't think we would see an increase in the cost of Government borrowing due to an increase of debt, if what they are buying produces income. Debt to GDP ratio is a factor, but so is the ability to service the debt, and that should improve, not worsen, if buying a revenue making asset.

may be you're right, i admire your optimism. the bigger picture is there will be improved wage agreements, lower prices to consumers, then borrowing for investment, not much left from the revenue. then theres another 200bn for unspecified infrastructure, and another 250bn for national bank. that credit line for the state is looking very stretched. it'll be great for one maybe two parliaments as all this spending boosts the economy, but eventually we'll have pay back all the borrowing. government has one practical, reliable source of income, taxes.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Most people with any sense would travel off-peak the previous evening,and use the saving on ticket price for an overnight stay,so getting to work on time,fully rested,unstressed and able to put in a decent day's work.Each to their own.

We're going a bit off topic here but as HKFC has pointed out I'd often be there on a Monday and would greatly prefer to spend all of my Sunday with my family. But that, frankly, is a smokescreen. Firstly I STILL would have had to catch a rush hour train home and secondly, none of that would have helped the other WM commuters heading in to Britain's fourth worse mainline railway station.

I care about them but can see you're only thinking of your own comfort. Typical Tory.

 

[Two Professors]

We're going a bit off topic here but as HKFC has pointed out I'd often be there on a Monday and would greatly prefer to spend all of my Sunday with my family. But that, frankly, is a smokescreen. Firstly I STILL would have had to catch a rush hour train home and secondly, none of that would have helped the other WM commuters heading in to Britain's fourth worse mainline railway station.

I care about them but can see you're only thinking of your own comfort. Typical Tory.

Sorry,not even a shy Tory!Rush hour in Brum has normally cleared by 6-6.30 pm,so a quick pint in the Square Peg,jump on the tram down to New Street,get home stress-free.Or you could stop off in Grand Central for food and shopping.Anway,have a nice day,UTA.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Are Labour Remain today?

Refer to point 1. for the current situation.

I believe that Labour are ‘leave’ at the moment but that could change with a pact.