Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,596
As Papa alluded to, there is now a real risk of colder weather hitting these shores towards the end of next week, certainly wrap up warm for the Palace game!
It's too early to say whether it'll be cold enough for snow, based on some of the latest charts then that would be yes it is, possibly even on the day of the game based on this chart from ECM tonight:
However that is the first time that evolution has been shown so until we see it on a few more runs it might not be correct.
What does look like happening is that the PV will split or elongate (as Papa said) which will aid in a ridge or HP around the Greenland area, which means more chance of colder weather for us. With the forecasts for continued attacks on the Stratosphere which will stop the Polar Vortex from forming, there is every chance that this winter could be below average overall, with quite a bit more snow than we've seen for quite a while. I'm not talking a 62-63 here but more like an 80's type winter.
It's too early to say whether it'll be cold enough for snow, based on some of the latest charts then that would be yes it is, possibly even on the day of the game based on this chart from ECM tonight:
However that is the first time that evolution has been shown so until we see it on a few more runs it might not be correct.
What does look like happening is that the PV will split or elongate (as Papa said) which will aid in a ridge or HP around the Greenland area, which means more chance of colder weather for us. With the forecasts for continued attacks on the Stratosphere which will stop the Polar Vortex from forming, there is every chance that this winter could be below average overall, with quite a bit more snow than we've seen for quite a while. I'm not talking a 62-63 here but more like an 80's type winter.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
And this morning's charts support this evolution still. Could be marginal here, but there is increasing potential to see a least some falling (if not settling) snow from next week.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Now, that's a split polar vortex.
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,596
That is gorgeous! Very rare to see an Artic High influencing our weather in any Winter, let alone at the start of it! Must be a connection with the Siberian snowcover and/or lowest artic sea ice?
Either way it does look very interesting the first couple of weeks of winter! I wonder if we'll see a split jet so that we keep HP in the svalbard vicinity? I should imagine the models will try and run the jet over the top with it gradually pushing the High pressure down back to the Azores, which would be what you woudl expect, maybe this winter will be different..
Either way it does look very interesting the first couple of weeks of winter! I wonder if we'll see a split jet so that we keep HP in the svalbard vicinity? I should imagine the models will try and run the jet over the top with it gradually pushing the High pressure down back to the Azores, which would be what you woudl expect, maybe this winter will be different..
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Some correlation between the lower ice in the Arctic and a disrupted Polar Vortex has been established, so yes, the new seasonal ice pack could indeed be a driver for these colder periods.
On the final point, the 'low res' part of the GFS (post 192 hours) tends to default back to a mobile / zonal pattern as a rule, so yes, they will certainly try to blow any block away.
The GFS ensemble is worth a look today, as within the last 36 hours. We now have a few runs giving -10C temps at 850hpa, which especially in an NE/E feed would give snow (as long as there's precipitation around, of course).
For anyone interested, this page allows you to select an ensemble for any point on the map..
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Slightly off topic...nice big low due saturday...could be a soaking on the way to the amex
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
As the diagram I linked to above shows, Friday's and Monday's rain looks more intense at the moment, and Saturday's is the least well forecast at the moment, in terms of intensity and timing.
Bevendean Hillbilly
New member
Are you insane man? If you read their scientific utterances diligently you will learn the following:
-there is something freaky going on over the north pole
-this is likely to dump snow all over us
-there is something about the stratosphere which is causing the weather geeks to drool
-Dennis quaid will have to walk across an ice pack to dig you out of a museum when the next ice age happens overnight and you have to burn all of your porno mags and viz back issues to stay alive in your basement ice cave.
None of this is boring my friend.
GoldWithFalmer
Seaweed! Seaweed!
How freaky?
Bevendean Hillbilly
New member
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
this is this morning's GFS ensemble for roughly Worthing.
Key things to note.
1. The 850hpa temps go down to -10C for quite a few runs.
2. The snow percentage forecast is rising for quite a few days.
3. The Operational & Control runs both give us snow here from late next week.
Key things to note.
1. The 850hpa temps go down to -10C for quite a few runs.
2. The snow percentage forecast is rising for quite a few days.
3. The Operational & Control runs both give us snow here from late next week.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
And as to illustrate what the Operational run (black) line would deliver... this is the precipitation chart for Sat 1st Dec (1pm) based upon it.
Hatched is snow.
Would be fun getting to Palace and back in that.
Hatched is snow.
Would be fun getting to Palace and back in that.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
So the Palace match could be snowed or frozen off?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
My subsequent post, quite coincidentally, covers that exact scenario.
This is still a big IF, but if that Op run were to happen:
run this loop forward from here (I've started at next Friday, 180 hours ... it goes onto a 2nd Page via 'Suite'). We'd get 6 days of snow.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=2
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,596
Okay so some peeps are scratching their heads and thinking well what does it all mean. I found this analogy based on a footie match, I think it sums it up well!
Imagine that it's football, one team is called Mild Winter Weather and the other Cold Winter Weather and they've started a game. MWW has one star player, Polar Vortex, when he is on song, CWW can't do much aside from the odd move and a hammering is the outcome. That said, CWW have one big bruiser at the back called Wave Propagation and he has just put a bad tackle on Polar Vortex who is seen wobbling baddly on the pitch. CWW is going to take advantage of that and it's only a matter of time before Wave Propagation put another tackle on Polar Vortex, the old bruiser is pumped up. The question is how long will he wait for that and will Polar Vortex managed to influence play for more than a few minutes when he recovers from the first tackle.
In the meantime, in CWW, morale player Stratoshperic Warming seems to want a go too and he starts nibbling at Polar Vortex ankles too. Standing aloof, enigmatic, is Sudden Stratoshperic Warming. If he decides to turn on the show, then Polar Vortex is toast, he is simply too good for him to handle and CWW will simply run riot...
Imagine that it's football, one team is called Mild Winter Weather and the other Cold Winter Weather and they've started a game. MWW has one star player, Polar Vortex, when he is on song, CWW can't do much aside from the odd move and a hammering is the outcome. That said, CWW have one big bruiser at the back called Wave Propagation and he has just put a bad tackle on Polar Vortex who is seen wobbling baddly on the pitch. CWW is going to take advantage of that and it's only a matter of time before Wave Propagation put another tackle on Polar Vortex, the old bruiser is pumped up. The question is how long will he wait for that and will Polar Vortex managed to influence play for more than a few minutes when he recovers from the first tackle.
In the meantime, in CWW, morale player Stratoshperic Warming seems to want a go too and he starts nibbling at Polar Vortex ankles too. Standing aloof, enigmatic, is Sudden Stratoshperic Warming. If he decides to turn on the show, then Polar Vortex is toast, he is simply too good for him to handle and CWW will simply run riot...
supaseagull
Well-known member
The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]
Nope still doesn't make sense- doesnt say when will Vicente be fit again?
Okay so some peeps are scratching their heads and thinking well what does it all mean. I found this analogy based on a footie match, I think it sums it up well!
Imagine that it's football, one team is called Mild Winter Weather and the other Cold Winter Weather and they've started a game. MWW has one star player, Polar Vortex, when he is on song, CWW can't do much aside from the odd move and a hammering is the outcome. That said, CWW have one big bruiser at the back called Wave Propagation and he has just put a bad tackle on Polar Vortex who is seen wobbling baddly on the pitch. CWW is going to take advantage of that and it's only a matter of time before Wave Propagation put another tackle on Polar Vortex, the old bruiser is pumped up. The question is how long will he wait for that and will Polar Vortex managed to influence play for more than a few minutes when he recovers from the first tackle.
In the meantime, in CWW, morale player Stratoshperic Warming seems to want a go too and he starts nibbling at Polar Vortex ankles too. Standing aloof, enigmatic, is Sudden Stratoshperic Warming. If he decides to turn on the show, then Polar Vortex is toast, he is simply too good for him to handle and CWW will simply run riot...
Nope still doesn't make sense- doesnt say when will Vicente be fit again?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
When the arctic sea ice melts.