[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Deleted User X18H]

Rumours of light snow in Sussex. Anyone able to confirm?

I saw a sleet like manifestation at about 11am

 

[seagurn]

something snow like in Uckfield half hour ago....

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Typical. I'm down in the West Country and snow is reported in Sussex!

 

[supaseagull]

Any updates on our cold blast for the end of the month?

 

[Bozza]

Typical. I'm down in the West Country and snow is reported in Sussex!

Some folk not too far from us had snow this morning. It's avoiding you.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Some folk not too far from us had snow this morning. It's avoiding you.

True, as i saw on my journey home today. The Chilterns looked like they had some as we drive West from near Yeovil the A303, and as we crested some hills near there there was snow beside the road and on the fields. Initially we thought it might have been hail, but we spotted a farm house with a steep pitched roof, covered in it, and hail would simply have bounced off such an angled surface.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Some folk not too far from us had snow this morning. It's avoiding you.

True, as i saw on my journey home today. The Chilterns looked like they had some as we drive West from near Yeovil the A303, and as we crested some hills near there there was snow beside the road and on the fields. Initially we thought it might have been hail, but we spotted a farm house with a steep pitched roof, covered in it, and hail would simply have bounced off such an angled surface.

 

[Flex Your Head]

It seems pretty mild at the moment, but the Met Office say it *might* start getting colder in December:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Dec 2012 to Tuesday 18 Dec 2012:
As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. There are however, some signs of more settled conditions across much of the UK during the first part of December. So, although there are no strong indications of any particular weather type predominating, on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, as well as some wintry showers.

Any of the meterologists on here got a long-range view for us?

 

[SeagullSongs]

It seems pretty mild at the moment, but the Met Office say it *might* start getting colder in December:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Dec 2012 to Tuesday 18 Dec 2012:
As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. There are however, some signs of more settled conditions across much of the UK during the first part of December. So, although there are no strong indications of any particular weather type predominating, on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with an increased risk of frost and fog, as well as some wintry showers.

Any of the meterologists on here got a long-range view for us?

Great Britain in cold winter shocker.

 

[Giraffe]

Any chance of an update from the great and good.

We need some snow.

 

[supaseagull]

Any chance of an update from the great and good.

We need some snow.

Meant to be risk of cold weather the week after next....Still alot of uncertainty, but the met off are saying potential for being a bit brrrr!

 

[Norman Potting]

True, as i saw on my journey home today. The Chilterns looked like they had some as we drive West from near Yeovil the A303, and as we crested some hills near there there was snow beside the road and on the fields. Initially we thought it might have been hail, but we spotted a farm house with a steep pitched roof, covered in it, and hail would simply have bounced off such an angled surface.

If you can see the Chilterns when driving West on the A303 from Yeovil you must either a) be spectacularly lost, or b) have superhero standard eyesight.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

If you can see the Chilterns when driving West on the A303 from Yeovil you must either a) be spectacularly lost, or b) have superhero standard eyesight.

Clearly the latter

Today's output continues a sporadic trend over the last week or so to show a potential start to winter 'proper'.

All models show a small low pressure diving SE past the UK during next week, allowing high pressure to develop to our NW. The most likely outcome is a E/NE airflow. Now down here, at least initially, I don't see this as being cold enough for snow (we'll most likely get cold rain), but there will at least be a much more wintry feel to things, with snow / sleet in places. It's how it develops from here that's important, as there's the potential for much colder air to begin to feed south from the Arctic.

Many of the good winters (I mean good as in snowy) we've had of late have been characterised by continual blocking (High Pressure) to our NW/N/NE, and this is often cyclically, with each 'attempt' stronger and longer lived than the first. The key elements now are that the polar vortex (a persistent large scale low pressure cell that sits atop the world) is forecast to split, or at least distort. This is important because a distorted or split vortex allow cold air to be pushed much farther south than usual (where it simply cirles the pole at high latitudes, trapped up there), and also supports semi-premanent blocking high pressure cells.

So, in summary, this represents the 1st attempt at blocking, and may not persist; however, it may be the 1st of many this winter.

 

[chucky1973]

Clearly the latter

Today's output continues a sporadic trend over the last week or so to show a potential start to winter 'proper'.

All models show a small low pressure diving SE past the UK during next week, allowing high pressure to develop to our NW. The most likely outcome is a E/NE airflow. Now down here, at least initially, I don't see this as being cold enough for snow (we'll most likely get cold rain), but there will at least be a much more wintry feel to things, with snow / sleet in places. It's how it develops from here that's important, as there's the potential for much colder air to begin to feed south from the Arctic.

Many of the good winters (I mean good as in snowy) we've had of late have been characterised by continual blocking (High Pressure) to our NW/N/NE, and this is often cyclically, with each 'attempt' stronger and longer lived than the first. The key elements now are that the polar vortex (a persistent large scale low pressure cell that sits atop the world) is forecast to split, or at least distort. This is important because a distorted or split vortex allow cold air to be pushed much farther south than usual (where it simply cirles the pole at high latitudes, trapped up there), and also supports semi-premanent blocking high pressure cells.

So, in summary, this represents the 1st attempt at blocking, and may not persist; however, it may be the 1st of many this winter.

so in a nut shell a cold snowy winter?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

so in a nut shell a cold snowy winter?

There are signs that the pattern of the last 4 winters might be continuing. It doesn't necessarily guarantee snow here, as the block could be in the wrong place, and we end up on the mild side, with Athens under a foot of snow.

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

The ice age is coming...the suns movin' in..

Best get some winter tyres then.

 

[vegster]

The ice age is coming...the suns movin' in..

Best get some winter tyres then.

Strangely enough, I was in Lidl yesterday and included in their weekly specials coming this thursday was a set of snow chains..... imagine how I tittered to myself regarding their efficacy in balmy Worthing... well, I'm not tittering now, I'll be down there at 8AM pronto. toute suite

 

[driller]

The ice age is coming...the suns movin' in..

Best get some winter tyres then.

We are in an ice age :

An ice age, or more precisely, a glacial age, is a period of long-term reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Within a long-term ice age, individual pulses of cold climate are termed "glacial periods" (or alternatively "glacials" or "glaciations" or colloquially as "ice age"), and intermittent warm periods are called "interglacials". Glaciologically, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in the northern and southern hemispheres. By this definition, we are still in the ice age that began 2.6 million years ago at the start of the Pleistocene epoch, because the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets still exist

 

[Papa Lazarou]

We are in an ice age :

An ice age, or more precisely, a glacial age, is a period of long-term reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental ice sheets, polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Within a long-term ice age, individual pulses of cold climate are termed "glacial periods" (or alternatively "glacials" or "glaciations" or colloquially as "ice age"), and intermittent warm periods are called "interglacials". Glaciologically, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in the northern and southern hemispheres. By this definition, we are still in the ice age that began 2.6 million years ago at the start of the Pleistocene epoch, because the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets still exist

There is a (small) group of climatologist / geologists who beleive that the rise in global temps provided by greenhouse gases are a good thing, as they may delay / postpone / stop the onset of the next glaciation event. It would be quite a tidy outcome

The current period of low solar maximum values and long minima show a parallel to previous colder periods, such as a the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century.




The Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the 'Little Ice Age', and a link has now been established by Nasa.

 

[chucky1973]

the end is near.