[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[mlg57]

Right that's it, I'm off to Australia see you in February. They have Sky Sports don't they?

 

[Jam The Man]

Snow on or just before Boxing Day could solve a slight problem for 20000+ fans..............

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The signals that we're seeing at the moment are certainly favouring colder weather. Some of signals we're seeing are:

- ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) - Expected to be neutral/slightly Nina (I think, based on the fact that we're in -PDO, which basically stops El Nino from happening). This means that this shouldn't influence our weather very much, which is a good thing!

- Easterly QBO (winds high up above the pole), this helps to disrupt the Polar Vortex if in easterly phase, last year it was in westerly phase which helped promote a Polar Vortex (PV). We want a weak PV because if we have a strong PV in place over Greenland, you can forget about any colder weather in general. A strong PV creates a stronger temp gradient, which in turn creates a stronger jet, which then means blocking highs find it difficult to form. You need blocking highs to get the cold weather to us from the North or East. So a weak jet is best as this can meander, ideally to the south of us!

So you can see that the signals are looking good for cold, however we still are not guaranteed cold as there are other signals which we don't really know yet which way they are going to go. For Example the Stratosphere temp, if this goes very cold (like last year), this can also stop blocking highs from forming so ideally you would want this to at most be average and preferably a bit on the warm side. It's currently cooling on average which is a good thing so far! We need to keep an eye on this as head into winter. The last time we had an average/warmer Strat was two and three years ago, and looked what happened then!

Sorry for going on, but I'm actually quite excited about our snow chances this year!

I too am cautiously optimistic

 

[HalifaxSeagull]

Same here but Im 1000ft above sea level

Where ago it's are you ooop north? My gf used to live inSaddleworth, they always seemed to get more snow up there...

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I am not in UK for winter = snow in winter, guaranteed. You'll have shed loads of the stuff. bastards

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The signals that we're seeing at the moment are certainly favouring colder weather. Some of signals we're seeing are:

- ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) - Expected to be neutral/slightly Nina (I think, based on the fact that we're in -PDO, which basically stops El Nino from happening). This means that this shouldn't influence our weather very much, which is a good thing!

I thought we were in el Nino at the moment? Certainly been a typical El-Nino extended drought season over here

 

[Peever]

This was last Thursday here in Kenora Ontario....... All melted away but got a nasty blizzard.....

 

[casbom]

I thought we were in el Nino at the moment? Certainly been a typical El-Nino extended drought season over here

Yep we're just about in a weak El-Nino, however this is looking to go neutral in the next couple of months and it's then when I think it could even go weak La-Nina before the winters over. Either way it shouldn't have any affect on us over here.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Yep we're just about in a weak El-Nino, however this is looking to go neutral in the next couple of months and it's then when I think it could even go weak La-Nina before the winters over. Either way it shouldn't have any affect on us over here.

Weak is good, couldn't take another strong fire season here. Thanks for info

 

[Taybha]

This was last Thursday here in Kenora Ontario....... All melted away but got a nasty blizzard.....

Bet you still had those baggy flowery shorts on dintya

 

[Papa Lazarou]

For those who like to watch the onset of winter, I find this site is worth a peruse over a cup of tea every now and then.

http://www2.liikennevirasto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kelikamerat_5.html

There are link to traffic webcams all over Finland, plus they give real time weather info as well.

 

[Peever]

Bet you still had those baggy flowery shorts on dintya

And a sleeveless shirt

 

[RexCathedra]

One year in five, we have Halloween in the snow, based on the kids' trick-or-treat pictures from years gone by...
Last year, 9" of it. Was still in barbecue-season mode, and still painting the garage, when the white stuff came.

More commonly, just spitting flakes, nothing shovel-able.

 

[jakarta]

Funny you should say that about the colours: I thought the colours of the leaves was to do with the amount of sun in the summer e.g. More sun stronger colours so surely they should be less bright this year?

I'm quoting what I heard on the Sunday Morning Gardening Show on BBC Radio Sussex from one of their experts who reckoned that the wet summer would involve a really good show of colour in the next month or so.

I'll freely admit I have no idea why this is, no doubt there is someone on NSC who knows so hopefully they will explain?

 

[Uwinsc]

I'm quoting what I heard on the Sunday Morning Gardening Show on BBC Radio Sussex from one of their experts who reckoned that the wet summer would involve a really good show of colour in the next month or so.

I'll freely admit I have no idea why this is, no doubt there is someone on NSC who knows so hopefully they will explain?

Fair enough

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I know it's not full on snow, but today's 12z GFS ensemble has for the first time I've seen this winter a 5% chance of snow here in 3 separate occasions over the next 2 weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=293&y=172

This is all a good sign for the winter as Northern Blocking is showing its hand.

 

[Djmiles]

Highs of just 7 degrees next Friday. A mere 23 colder than where I was this time last week. Depressing.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The latest Met Office model output makes interesting viewing.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-CTKkARVoNFI/UIQ2cOIWkyI/AAAAAAAACGU/a6JCHIpJ26g/s400/%25255BUNSET%25255D.jpg?hl=en

That would seem to be the start of a cold spell for the UK, with a strong Greenland block and the polar vortex displaced into Scandinavia.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The latest Met Office model output makes interesting viewing.

That would seem to be the start of a cold spell for the UK, with a strong Greenland block and the polar vortex displaced into Scandinavia.

 

[8ace]

Think it's going to be taters at Bloomfield Road on Saturday.