[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Neville's Breakfast]

I take your point in that they are all different. But how do you know how asperger's manifests itself when they grow into adults? I certainly don't.

Neither do I know if you can make a diagnosis of asperger's at a distance. How are you so sure you can't?

The Pentagon will have a library of material, with many, many videos on Putin. How close to the subject do you need to be to make a diagnosis?

Do you understand what I'm doing? I'm not claiming that Putin has got asperger's. I'm claiming that it is more likely than not, that the report is being revisited right now.

Well, I know what diagnosis of autism entails and the specialist does need at least to be in the same room. By the way ‘Asperger’s’ doesn’t actually exist any more as a classification. Replaced by ‘high functioning autism.’ I’m not sure I agree with you that it is more likely than not that he is autistic but obviously I am not in the same room as him and I am not qualified to say anyway. Interesting article and angle though, thanks.

 

[Poojah]

Agree with your post completely.

Now, don't get me wrong, the **** Putin is the one killing people in Ukraine.

But whilst there are some very angry people on this thread (and rightly so), there are people in power in the West currently balancing the cost of each individual Ukrainian life against the cost that each sanction will cost them individually or as a group, in terms of power/financially (which at these levels are often the same).

If 'the West' REALLY want to stop Putin, the tools are all there and readily available to those in power. Call me cynical, but I don't think they'll be used

I’m not convinced any level of sanction will stop Putin in carrying out his intentions, whatever they are. Russia is in Ukraine and going through it like a knife butter, with a great many civilian lives list along the way. To have gone ahead with this, he’s committed to being in it for the long run.

The issue that frightens me is once Ukraine is completely under Russian control, then what? Putin today has said that “Russia remains part of the global economy and isn't going to hurt the system that it is part of, as long as it remains in it”. That’s an inference that they will not extend their invasion further into Europe if the west plays nicely, but also sets up the narrative that in ordering sanctions the west has, again, forced Russia’s hand to push on and protect its own interests and security.

Contrast his words to those of Biden, who went to great lengths to reaffirm that the US will not be setting foot in Ukraine. Putin meanwhile, is happy to aggressively issue threats of nuclear strikes.

Perhaps it’s bluster, but Putin strikes me as a man who, like Hitler, is hell bent on seeing out his vision and has no qualms about the massive loss of life globally that would be required for it to even stand a chance of coming to fruition.

 

[Lower West Stander]

What does that mean in layperson's terms please LW?

Think about it like the risk of insuring your car or home. It’s the premium you have to pay protect yourself if the car is a write off, or in this case if Russia defaults.

If you own say $100 of Russian government bonds and you want to insure yourself against losing that money in the next 5 years, you’re going to have to take out an insurance policy of $110 to do it.


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[Bry Nylon]

Can nations unilaterally just leave NATO and join the other side? It rather makes a mockery of the treaty if so.

Always reminds me of the Billy Connolly joke: “NATO? When I was a wee lad, NATO is what we called the fella down the road who’d lost a foot to diabetes.”

 

[essbee1]

Think about it like the risk of insuring your car or home. It’s the premium you have to pay protect yourself if the car is a write off, or in this case if Russia defaults.

If you own say $100 of Russian government bonds and you want to insure yourself against losing that money in the next 5 years, you’re going to have to take out an insurance policy of $110 to do it.


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Thanks LW. Makes sense.

 

[Lower West Stander]

Think about it like the risk of insuring your car or home. It’s the premium you have to pay protect yourself if the car is a write off, or in this case if Russia defaults.

If you own say $100 of Russian government bonds and you want to insure yourself against losing that money in the next 5 years, you’re going to have to take out an insurance policy of $110 to do it.


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Or put another way. The market is saying there is a 10% chance Russia will default. Before all this it was less than 2%


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[A1X]

I’m not convinced any level of sanction will stop Putin in carrying out his intentions, whatever they are. Russia is in Ukraine and going through it like a knife butter, with a great many civilian lives list along the way. To have gone ahead with this, he’s committed to being in it for the long run.

The issue that frightens me is once Ukraine is completely under Russian control, then what? Putin today has said that “Russia remains part of the global economy and isn't going to hurt the system that it is part of, as long as it remains in it”. That’s an inference that they will not extend their invasion further into Europe if the west plays nicely, but also sets up the narrative that in ordering sanctions the west has, again, forced Russia’s hand to push on and protect its own interests and security.

Contrast his words to those of Biden, who went to great lengths to reaffirm that the US will not be setting foot in Ukraine. Putin meanwhile, is happy to aggressively issue threats of nuclear strikes.

Perhaps it’s bluster, but Putin strikes me as a man who, like Hitler, is hell bent on seeing out his vision and has no qualms about the massive loss of life globally that would be required for it to even stand a chance of coming to fruition.

It’s similar (and I do hate doing it, but the parallels are there) with German as opposed to Britain and France in the late 1930s. Ultimately a dictator doesn’t need to worry about what people think of them at home, so all you need to do is visibly keep a few noisy ones quiet and the rest will toe the line. But democracies don’t work that way and decisions have to be justified, evidenced and ultimately bought into. It’s why democracies don’t go to war with one another.

 

[Weststander]

It's been pointed out today that not only Trump revealed himself to be a big fanboy for Putin but our own Cuddly Nigel Farage thinks he is the world leader who inspires him too !..... it's a dirty tangled web in media and politics these days.

Didn’t you and I mock Farage for that a couple of years ago? So thick and sycophantic, he copied Trump and jumped on any nationalist/fascist bandwagon.

 

[JamesAndTheGiantHead]

If anyone hasn’t seen The Death Of Stalin, I would recommend watching this more than ever, not least because it’s a brilliantly funny film.

I expect this war to go a similar way. Putin is Beria and he will eventually be taken out by his own people who will come to their senses.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It's been pointed out today that not only Trump revealed himself to be a big fanboy for Putin but our own Cuddly Nigel Farage thinks he is the world leader who inspires him too !..... it's a dirty tangled web in media and politics these days.

Not tangled. We can all see who the ****s are.

Unfortunately they have a following.

Behind it all, however, is an assumption the Putin has only limited ambition which stops, for example, short of the white cliffs of Dover, and the shining entrance to Trump Tower.

It is a pity that the noisiest and most strident of the talking heads are the most shameless .

Farrage. I mean, really. But come on, let's defund the BBC!

Farrage is a traitor who should be hanged. There, I said it!

 

[peterward]

Blocking Russia from SWIFT plays into their hands. Russia, China perhaps India could ‘easily’ build an alternative and then you lose any control

I respectfully disagree. It would instantly stop them from being able to sell their gas or oil, it would send their markets into a total freefall.

Even if they could find a new system later, the time is right now, the window to stop him small, do everything to collapse the russian economy in the hope that may enable a palace coup.

Yes thats painful for us, but let him off the hook or his sanctions planning to beat this, and he comes back again, making veiled nuclear threats if we intervene.

Germany, Italy and Cyprus railed against swift in the EU allegedly, making the false (and own financial preservation argument) that they need to maintain some leverage...... thats BS, you hammer them with everything, and you can then remove some things like swift only if they de-esculate.

What price 1000's of dead ukrainians and a modern day Hitler invading a european neighbour. Germany, Italy and Cyprus know theirs.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Another really really encouraging development if true.

Ukrainian news has just reported that around 60 Russian advanced spy/espionage troops, literally just surrendered themselves to the Ukrainian military having received new orders, citing they had no idea they had been sent to kills fellow slavs, which they simply cannot do.

I hope its true, i hope it could become a trend.

I’ve copied this from a Reuters Report

and a platoon from Russia's 74th Motor Rifles Brigade has surrendered, she said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrai...nians-will-fight-russian-invasion-2022-02-24/

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

@HWT, may I have your opinion on something?

I came across this on my travels:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...n-aspergers-syndrome-study-pentagon/22855927/

A Pentagon study dating back to 2008 suggests that Putin may have Asperger's. What do you make of it?

Just had a look. It's 110% nonsense.

Tagging [MENTION=34242]Neville's Breakfast[/MENTION] who seemed interested.

 

[dejavuatbtn]

If anyone hasn’t seen The Death Of Stalin, I would recommend watching this more than ever, not least because it’s a brilliantly funny film.

I expect this war to go a similar way. Putin is Beria and he will eventually be taken out by his own people who will come to their senses.

I’ll have a little pray about that one before I go to bed.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

I’m not convinced any level of sanction will stop Putin in carrying out his intentions, whatever they are. Russia is in Ukraine and going through it like a knife butter, with a great many civilian lives list along the way. To have gone ahead with this, he’s committed to being in it for the long run.

The issue that frightens me is once Ukraine is completely under Russian control, then what? Putin today has said that “Russia remains part of the global economy and isn't going to hurt the system that it is part of, as long as it remains in it”. That’s an inference that they will not extend their invasion further into Europe if the west plays nicely, but also sets up the narrative that in ordering sanctions the west has, again, forced Russia’s hand to push on and protect its own interests and security.

Contrast his words to those of Biden, who went to great lengths to reaffirm that the US will not be setting foot in Ukraine. Putin meanwhile, is happy to aggressively issue threats of nuclear strikes.

Perhaps it’s bluster, but Putin strikes me as a man who, like Hitler, is hell bent on seeing out his vision and has no qualms about the massive loss of life globally that would be required for it to even stand a chance of coming to fruition.

Question is, will Putin get Ukraine completely under control? Much now depends on how willing the Ukrainians are to keep fighting to the bitter end. The longer the conventional forces hold out, the harder Putin will find it, even if he does eventually win, as he will then be in charge of a territory whose population is opposed to him as well the possibility of having access to weapons to continue localised armed resistance. The current war may well be short, Ukraine lacks any real geopgraphical features to assist in its defence, but the long term prospects could end up becoming a festering sore for Putin.

 

[Weststander]

Not tangled. We can all see who the ****s are.

Unfortunately they have a following.

Behind it all, however, is an assumption the Putin has only limited ambition which stops, for example, short of the white cliffs of Dover, and the shining entrance to Trump Tower.

It is a pity that the noisiest and most strident of the talking heads are the most shameless .

Farrage. I mean, really. But come on, let's defund the BBC!

Farrage is a traitor who should be hanged. There, I said it!

Although a Remainer, I can see why millions of perfectly sane and normal people voted the other way, I recognise their justification.

But that’s a million miles away from supporting the likes of Putin, the dictator who stole the Belarus election, Trump’s attempted coup.

Makes one wonder what goes through the small mind of Farage and their like in the UK. In another era he would’ve worn a black shirt and tried to take Cable Street (whilst hiding behind a man).

 

[brighton_dave]

Agreea

 

[Poojah]

Question is, will Putin get Ukraine completely under control? Much now depends on how willing the Ukrainians are to keep fighting to the bitter end. The longer the conventional forces hold out, the harder Putin will find it, even if he does eventually win, as he will then be in charge of a territory whose population is opposed to him as well the possibility of having access to weapons to continue localised armed resistance. The current war may well be short, Ukraine lacks any real geopgraphical features to assist in its defence, but the long term prospects could end up becoming a festering sore for Putin.

I hope you’re right, but the consensus seems to be that Kyiv will have fallen to the Russians by tomorrow. I’m no expert, but the notion of the country’s capital falling within 48 hours of the invasion doesn’t suggest the resistance is going to be particularly strong in relative terms.

 

[A1X]

Makes one wonder what goes through the small mind of Farage and their like in the UK. In another era he would’ve worn a black shirt and tried to take Cable Street (whilst hiding behind a man).

I think it’s pound signs.

 

[brighton_dave]

I respectfully disagree. It would instantly stop them from being able to sell their gas or oil, it would send their markets into a total freefall.

Even if they could find a new system later, the time is right now, the window to stop him small, do everything to collapse the russian economy in the hope that may enable a palace coup.

Yes thats painful for us, but let him off the hook or his sanctions planning to beat this, and he comes back again, making veiled nuclear threats if we intervene.

Germany, Italy and Cyprus railed against swift in the EU allegedly, making the false (and own financial preservation argument) that they need to maintain some leverage...... thats BS, you hammer them with everything, and you can then remove some things like swift only if they de-esculate.

What price 1000's of dead ukrainians and a modern day Hitler invading a european neighbour. Germany, Italy and Cyprus know theirs.

Unfortunately self interests are what it is about here. Why take all the measures available when you can instead allow innocent people to be slaughtered by a murderer. Let's hold some bargaining chips while we sit back and watch. The response I find upsetting although not surprising.