[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Neville's Breakfast]

Not must of a strategists are you? The bottom line is Western Europeans feel Ukraine is still a distant land and semi- Russian anyway, they will be worried but not scared at this point. Russians will begin to scare Western Europe when NATO countries come under attack, or, worse still, vulnerable EU countries are targeted.

I'm sure there is a timetable and targeted cyberattacks will bring pressure on political leaders. Western forces will need to flood NATO coutries to stop Russian expansion and some sort of retaliatory cyber attacks will be necessary.

I apologize for my deficiencies as a strategist. NSC is very lucky to be benefitting from your military experience and expertise.

 

[Poojah]

Following the Ukraine invasion there will be a massive build up of Nato troops to protect those countries. It's a different starting point. Putin knows that but has decided to risk this invasion based on the West's current weakness today. That weakness won't be there tomorrow.

That’s a very precarious situation in itself, though, isn’t it. NATO and Russian troops in shooting distance of one another is a global disaster only one itchy trigger finger away.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Agree, if they attack the Baltic States it will be the 1939 Poland moment.

I'd expect him to halt at Ukraine for now, meddle like f**k to get Trump back in and go again.

What has happened today is huge, history will judge the inaction of 2014 very badly. The West sat back is did nothing....

Well, the number of times the West has acted and will be judged very badly probably outweighs all the times it hasn't. Let's not forget the West has recent history itself with unlawful invasions.

 

[Since1982]

Worst PM and worst President.

Both weak

Don't disagree but at least Biden is no Putin fanboy like Trump.

 

[Dibdab]

Well, the number of times the West has acted and will be judged very badly probably outweighs all the times it hasn't. Let's not forget the West has recent history itself with unlawful invasions.

Shhhh, those invasions that destabilised the entire middle east and killed millions don't count and it's only Putin who is a bad person.

 

[Bodian]

No point hitting just one NATO member as the rest will fire back, possibly all at once. It would have to be a multi-targeted strike.

This has actually made me stop and think. Maybe he will just stop at Ukraine, as one step further sees the destruction (in theory) of Russia, and probably most of the civilised world. He may not care about anyone else, but his ego might stop him from becoming the man that destroyed Russia.

How do you get that buffer though when NATO members Latvia and Estonia already border Russia?

do you have any grounds to support that view? NATO is dead if a single state is not fully defended, and there's an awful lot of defense to bring to bear. lets not over reach and get ahead of ourselves.

I would imagine military thinking will be along the lines of ; Forget Ukraine. It’s gone. It belongs to Russia for now.

They will be manoeuvring ordinance and troops to NATO borders in anticipation of a move against those territories.

Agree, if they attack the Baltic States it will be the 1939 Poland moment.

I'd expect him to halt at Ukraine for now, meddle like f**k to get Trump back in and go again.

What has happened today is huge, history will judge the inaction of 2014 very badly. The West sat back is did nothing....

Not an expert in this by any means - but I do think I agree roughly with what's being said here. Putin pretty much knows he can get away with invading Ukraine without others getting directly involved - but he must also know it would be totally different if he started invading NATO countries. I do wonder whether he is just 'taking' what he can - but won't go further?

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

All possible, which is why we MUST stand up strong today, this gets worse, much worse if we bottle it now

Are you signing up in the near future

Regards
DF

 

[A1X]

That’s a very precarious situation in itself, though, isn’t it. NATO and Russian troops in shooting distance of one another is a global disaster only one itchy trigger finger away.

Indeed it is. All we'll have to show for 30 years of relative peace is that we've just moved the Berlin Wall a thousand miles or so to the east.

 

[Dibdab]

Wonder if the same organisations are funding both sides of the war effort like in most conflicts?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I’m not claiming expertise or any special foresight but ….

I don’t expect Putin to attack a NATO country any time soon. I think he’s been hamming up whole insanity look.

But I do expect to see massed ranks of Russian soldiers and massed ranks of NATO forces lined up on the borders of Baltic countries. When this is the case, anything can go wrong.

Putin’s calculations will change if Trump gets back into the White House, in which case he’ll walk through Eastern Europe near unopposed.

 

[A1X]

Not an expert in this by any means - but I do think I agree roughly with what's being said here. Putin pretty much knows he can get away with invading Ukraine without others getting directly involved - but he must also know it would be totally different if he started invading NATO countries. I do wonder whether he is just 'taking' what he can - but won't go further?

I don't think Putin has any intention (at least right now) of being "king of the rubble". For a start he has two primary motivations (power and money), and that might suit one but definitely doesn't suit the other.

 

[clapham_gull]

I see all of the virologists on here have changed vocation to military leaders.

Wait till Matt Le Tissier wades in.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1496829415145160707[/tweet]

 

[A1X]

[tweet]1496830841946837004[/tweet]

Further to the idea Russians aren’t wholesale buying into this conflict

 

[portslade seagull]

[tweet]1496829415145160707[/tweet]

Most of our new recruits are 18yrs old so would probably not look much different. Although it wouldn't surprise me if the Russians had younger juveniles in their ranks.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Well done to Seb Vettel. Another German taking the lead.

 

[1066familyman]

[tweet]1496829415145160707[/tweet]

Whereas we wouldn't dream of setting up Armed Forces recruitment stalls in shopping centres to snare youngsters with promises of seeing the world

 

[1066familyman]

Shhhh, those invasions that destabilised the entire middle east and killed millions don't count and it's only Putin who is a bad person.

No, no, we were bringing freedom and democracy to poor oppressed people remember.

It certainly had nothing to do with big business and oil. Honest.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Well done to Seb Vettel. Another German taking the lead.

His words are more relevant than his nationality.

https://www.racefans.net/2022/02/24/vettel-will-not-race-russian-gp/

Good man. We need more of the same.

It’s a shame about this;

https://motorsports.nbcsports.com/2...-start-times-tv-schedules-streaming-2022/amp/

 

[southstandandy]

I see queues are now starting to reappear again at Petrol stations. 3 garages in Worthing now out of fuel and a couple with big(ish) queues this morning.