[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Triggaaar]

The problem is that same voice was constantly repeating that Russia wasn't going to invade. And then it did.


Let's see Putin making good on the first statement by withdrawing troops before believing the second.

Well of course - obviously Ukraine aren't going to say 'oh ok, then we'll stop fighting'.

One of Putin's demands is the demilitarisation of Ukraine. It goes without saying that Ukraine will never agree to that. If they did, then the government will obviously be replaced by Putin (who will just say that the Ukrainians demanded it).

I have no idea whether comments coming out of the Kremlin are a sign of them realising things aren't going their way, or just BS to encourage the West to go easy on sanctions etc.

 

[Triggaaar]

Good God.

I'm polite to you and simply say I disagree, and you come back with insults. Nice.

 

[Baldseagull]

Have all weapons that have been sent to Ukraine been disassembled before being sent? I didn't know that.

Still, I like to think that the main reason these jets aren't being sent is simply because the military advisors don't think they're particularly needed. We're either sending weapons to help Ukraine defend or we're not, it shouldn't matter what they are.

I thought this, then realised that anti tank missiles and ground to air missiles are obviously defensive weapons against an attack. Migs could be used aggressively in Russian air space, we are not going to supply anything with long range, i.e. could be launched inside Ukraine to attack targets in Russia, border areas obviously excluded.

 

[happypig]

Well of course - obviously Ukraine aren't going to say 'oh ok, then we'll stop fighting'.

One of Putin's demands is the demilitarisation of Ukraine. It goes without saying that Ukraine will never agree to that. If they did, then the government will obviously be replaced by Putin (who will just say that the Ukrainians demanded it).

I have no idea whether comments coming out of the Kremlin are a sign of them realising things aren't going their way, or just BS to encourage the West to go easy on sanctions etc.

Putin doesn't give a shiny shite what the rest of the world think of him (maybe China ?) but he does care what the Russian people think of him and, to their perception, he has to come out of this as a winner.

 

[birthofanorange]

I'm polite to you and simply say I disagree, and you come back with insults. Nice.

It's not an insult, but do carry on.

 

[Triggaaar]

I thought this, then realised that anti tank missiles and ground to air missiles are obviously defensive weapons against an attack. Migs could be used aggressively in Russian air space

I don't think there's any way that Ukraine would fly aggressively into Russian airspace, because it would give Russia an excuse to be even more brutal. And if that is what Ukraine wanted to do, they do already have jets to do it with. Of course we can't know all the reasons, that's only my view.

we are not going to supply anything with long range, i.e. could not be launched inside Ukraine to attack targets in Russia, border areas obviously excluded.

Well I'd agree that we won't supply things that are primarily used for firing long distance into another country, and Ukraine wouldn't want those sort of weapons anyway. Any jets would be armed with weapons to destroy Russian military equipment, and that's all in Ukraine anyway (ie, they've not got any left of the border - it wouldn't make any sense for Ukraine to be engaging the Russian troops that aren't fighting Ukraine).

 

[raymondo]

Well it wouldn't be much use firing them over

Well that does seem to be the artificial idea the west has made up. I personally can't see the logic. The jets wouldn't be used to fly into Russia, they'd be used for the same purpose as they anti-tank and stinger missiles, plus possibly bombing Ukrainian bridges (which is less lethal than the other weapons being used).

For now I'm going to keep hoping that they aren't needed.

I agree, it seems an artificial idea to me too - fighter jets supplied would clearly be used for defensive measures, they are not going to fly to the Kremlin (unfortunately)

 

[Triggaaar]

I agree, it seems an artificial idea to me too - fighter jets supplied would clearly be used for defensive measures, they are not going to fly to the Kremlin (unfortunately)

You jest I trust. The whole situation is worrying enough without any jets bombing the Kremlin (no matter how much they deserve it).

 

[Triggaaar]

It's not an insult, but do carry on.

Ah, so "Good God. " isn't an insult, it's just part of your debate. My bad.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

You jest I trust. The whole situation is worrying enough without any jets bombing the Kremlin (no matter how much they deserve it).

Hmm, if I was a Ukranian fighter pilot i'd be sorely tempted to go for the "blow up the death star" moment. Though i'd appreciate in practice one, person wouldn't be able to go rogue and do this.

But I think it does make military sense to use migs to attack inside Russia.

Vehicles, supplies and barracks are massed just inside the Russian border. Attacking the logistics and breaking supply lines makes complete sense

 

[LamieRobertson]

Nothing like a bit of music to lift spirits

https://twitter.com/cristinamas_/status/1501188967961669638?s=21

 

[raymondo]

I thought this, then realised that anti tank missiles and ground to air missiles are obviously defensive weapons against an attack. Migs could be used aggressively in Russian air space, we are not going to supply anything with long range, i.e. could be launched inside Ukraine to attack targets in Russia, border areas obviously excluded.

Probably correct - Stinger anti-tank missiles have an effective range of up to 2 miles

 

[raymondo]

Hmm, if I was a Ukranian fighter pilot i'd be sorely tempted to go for the "blow up the death star" moment. Though i'd appreciate in practice one, person wouldn't be able to go rogue and do this.

But I think it does make military sense to use migs to attack inside Russia.

Vehicles, supplies and barracks are massed just inside the Russian border. Attacking the logistics and breaking supply lines makes complete sense

True, but Ukraine aren't doing it so far, even though they have their jets. Maybe they know the Russian air defense systems in place are solid.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

True, but Ukraine aren't doing it so far, even though they have their jets. Maybe they know the Russian air defense systems in place are solid.

But once you pass the jets over, you can't stop the Ukrainians from changing their tactical approach and going on the offensive.

Personally I'm disappointed in the US decision, but I understand it.

 

[raymondo]

Yep, hard to see this as anything other than the start of a climbdown, and presumably an admission that the Russians don't think they can take and hold Kyiv.

I don't trust anything they say. I believe the Russians ARE capable of taking and holding Kyiv.
- they have the firepower from aerial bombardment, over time
- their forces have an almost half circle around Kyiv already
- I don't think they'd worry much about destroying a number of beautiful churches, as the Ukrainian orthodox church split from the Russian church ( and Lavrov's chat with the Pope didn't seem to change anything...)
- getting there would cost enormous damage to the Russian military machinery and troops, costly and time consuming to rebuild
- Russian bonds are heading to junk status in a couple days...I'm no economist but that's' probably not great for them to borrow funds

If Russia are concerned about anything, maybe it's the last two points

 

[rogersix]

Hmm, if I was a Ukranian fighter pilot i'd be sorely tempted to go for the "blow up the death star" moment. Though i'd appreciate in practice one, person wouldn't be able to go rogue and do this.

But I think it does make military sense to use migs to attack inside Russia.

Vehicles, supplies and barracks are massed just inside the Russian border. Attacking the logistics and breaking supply lines makes complete sense

From the little I know, the anti aircraft missile systems are winning this war, hence neither side is using their airforce much

 

[highflyer]

I don't trust anything they say. I believe the Russians ARE capable of taking and holding Kyiv.
- they have the firepower from aerial bombardment, over time
- their forces have an almost half circle around Kyiv already
- I don't think they'd worry much about destroying a number of beautiful churches, as the Ukrainian orthodox church split from the Russian church ( and Lavrov's chat with the Pope didn't seem to change anything...)
- getting there would cost enormous damage to the Russian military machinery and troops, costly and time consuming to rebuild
- Russian bonds are heading to junk status in a couple days...I'm no economist but that's' probably not great for them to borrow funds

If Russia are concerned about anything, maybe it's the last two points

My uninformed guess would be that you are right.

He can still 'win' in pure military terms. But it seems that the longer this goes on the harder it will be for Putin to stop the tide of public opinion turning against him. Russia isn't North Korea, people are used to connecting with the rest of the world in different ways. It will be impossible to shut off the flow of information completely. Putin has only been able to operate as he has because he has had the majority of Russia behind him. And while he probably still has that now (who the hell really knows), the harder he pushes, the quicker public opinion may shift.

If that is the case, then he needs to find (and to be given) a way to get out while claiming some element of success.

That may save him in the short term (he would then be able to blame any continued sanctions on the West and thus try and rebuild his popularity).

But longer term he will probably be toast anyway. The Russian economy is screwed and the truth about what is happening now in Ukraine will leak out into wider Russian society in time. Which is why (in addition to the far more important benefit of stopping the war and avoiding the risk of nuclear annihilation) it may be a good strategy to give him just enough room to retreat with some 'dignity' now and work on a long term strategy, given his weakened position, to support the Russian people to oust him in their own time.

Hopefully he will come to face justice for his crimes. But even if he does end up escaping that, my view is that stopping the war as quickly and completely as possible is the number one priority. Pushing him to his limit, with no way out, is too dangerous. Certainly for ordinary Ukrainians and potentially for the rest of us as well.

 

[Triggaaar]

But I think it does make military sense to use migs to attack inside Russia.

Vehicles, supplies and barracks are massed just inside the Russian border. Attacking the logistics and breaking supply lines makes complete sense

If they really are massed there, they I can understand your argument. But didn't Russia have something like 150,000 troops on the border, with just about all of them now in Ukraine (report on the news was that something close to 100% of them were now in Ukraine)? And if so, doesn't that mean that the troops inside Ukraine are actually a bigger target, and a more pressing target, than the ones in Russia?

 

[Eric the meek]

For a different perspective (Russians are victims as well), take a look at this:

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/worl...ldiers-loved-ones-marquardt-pkg-ac360-vpx.cnn

(Warning: it's a difficult watch).

That's right. Ukraine, the invaded country, has got a hotline for missing Russian troops, who are the ones invading.
Meanwhile, the invading country has no information about its missing troops.
Indeed, they may have been killed in action, incinerated in Russia's mobile crematoria, and their fate kept from the poor wives, girlfriends and mothers.

You really couldn't make it up.

 

[Triggaaar]

But longer term he will probably be toast anyway. The Russian economy is screwed and the truth about what is happening now in Ukraine will leak out into wider Russian society in time. Which is why (in addition to the far more important benefit of stopping the war and avoiding the risk of nuclear annihilation) it may be a good strategy to give him just enough room to retreat with some 'dignity' now and work on a long term strategy, given his weakened position, to support the Russian people to oust him in their own time.

The big question is what exactly is 'enough room to retreat with some dignity'?

It's difficult to imagine Ukraine accepting much that isn't basically a complete defeat for Putin.

But I think that's ok, Putin will just lie and tell the people it was a great success. FFS when Russian people in Ukraine are phoning their parents to say they're being bombed by Russia, their parents don't believe them. They've been so brainwashed they've lost the ability to think for themselves.