Recession CONTINUES

[beorhthelm]

No disrespect Max mate but this is what I mean. Self employed people have had a pay cut off 25-75% generally in the last 2 years. The self employed and employed laid off have been the casaulties bearing the brunt. Those employed good luck to you. No offense meant or intended I was just stating pretty basic facts and certain people went off the deep end. Have a good weekend.

do you care to point to a single reference to these "facts", or are they just inference from your own experience? for instance, do self employed accountants or plumbers see this sort of paycut? or is it just those operating in the finance industry? From the IT consultants i know, they have not taken any hit during the recession (and as not on the pay roll, though more expensive, seem to miss staffing culls). so i do know for a FACT that not all self-employed have been feeling the worse impact.

 

[Uncle C]

US, if being self employed is so bad, why did you take it?

Although the unemployment figures are bad and for every person that is on the dole, then its a nightmare, but actually I'm amazed that despite the length of this recession unemployment hasn't gone through the roof.

I know its nearing 3m, but if you compare the recession with the 1980/90's when there were less people of working age in the country and they had 3m plus unemployed, I would have thought in a deeper recession that we have now then we would have at least 4m already.

I think there are several reasons so far;

1. Unemployment figures lag up to 6 months behind the economy.
2. (Most) workers are being realistic about their salary and terms and are therefore preserving their jobs.
3. Quantitative Easing (never used on this scale) has pumped money into the economy, keeping some firms/businesses more buoyant than they might otherwise be.
4. Cuts to the public sector have hardly begun. It is reported that up to an additional 700,000 jobs may have to be lost in order to help pay the national debt.

You ain't seen nothing yet! All the savings widely publicised by the Conservatives at their conference make up a meagre one fifth of the money that needs to be raised to pay off the additional National Debt raised by the current Government.

Unemployment will continue to rise, and house prices will once again progress down wards.

 

[coventrygull]

I think there are several reasons so far;

1. Unemployment figures lag up to 6 months behind the economy.
2. (Most) workers are being realistic about their salary and terms and are therefore preserving their jobs.
3. Quantitative Easing (never used on this scale) has pumped money into the economy, keeping some firms/businesses more buoyant than they might otherwise be.
4. Cuts to the public sector have hardly begun. It is reported that up to an additional 700,000 jobs may have to be lost in order to help pay the national debt.

You ain't seen nothing yet! All the savings widely publicised by the Conservatives at their conference make up a meagre one fifth of the money that needs to be raised to pay off the additional National Debt raised by the current Government.

Unemployment will continue to rise, and house prices will once again progress down wards.

Good points. Its looking very grim

 

[Robbie G]

You ain't seen nothing yet! All the savings widely publicised by the Conservatives at their conference make up a meagre one fifth of the money that needs to be raised to pay off the additional National Debt raised by the current Government.

Unemployment will continue to rise, and house prices will once again progress down wards.

What level is suitable? 10%, 20%, 40% (as is/was golden rule).

Even if GDP figures today said there was positive growth, there is a long way to go until the economy goes back to 'normal'.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

I think there are several reasons so far;

1. Unemployment figures lag up to 6 months behind the economy.
2. (Most) workers are being realistic about their salary and terms and are therefore preserving their jobs.
3. Quantitative Easing (never used on this scale) has pumped money into the economy, keeping some firms/businesses more buoyant than they might otherwise be.
4. Cuts to the public sector have hardly begun. It is reported that up to an additional 700,000 jobs may have to be lost in order to help pay the national debt.

You ain't seen nothing yet! All the savings widely publicised by the Conservatives at their conference make up a meagre one fifth of the money that needs to be raised to pay off the additional National Debt raised by the current Government.

Unemployment will continue to rise, and house prices will once again progress down wards.

All very good points. There was I trying to find some light in these bad figures.

 

[simmo]

I think there are several reasons so far;

1. Unemployment figures lag up to 6 months behind the economy.
2. (Most) workers are being realistic about their salary and terms and are therefore preserving their jobs.
3. Quantitative Easing (never used on this scale) has pumped money into the economy, keeping some firms/businesses more buoyant than they might otherwise be.
4. Cuts to the public sector have hardly begun. It is reported that up to an additional 700,000 jobs may have to be lost in order to help pay the national debt.

You ain't seen nothing yet! All the savings widely publicised by the Conservatives at their conference make up a meagre one fifth of the money that needs to be raised to pay off the additional National Debt raised by the current Government.

Unemployment will continue to rise, and house prices will once again progress down wards.

Pretty much agree with everything you say but on a more optimistic note.

When the FTSE collapsed about 12 months ago it took 3/6 months for job losses to really kick in. The FTSE is now at its highest point since then and has very much been on an upward curve in the last 2 months.

Eventhough we are not out of recession, a lot of our trading partners globaly are coming out of it, suggesting potentially more exports with them (especially as the £ is so low) i.e if everyone was in the soup the situation would be far worse.

Maybe the situation with the majority of banks is not as bad as it first seemed in Sep 2008.

This is on the very optimistic side of things though and who knows what will happen even tomorrow, yet alone 6 months down the line

 

[pork pie]

Britain is finished, we will never recover from this.

Yes we will. But it will take a truely great leader like Maggie Thatcher to turn things around like she did!

 

[Chicken Runner61]

The Quantative Easing thing is a real poisoned chalice, every pound printed is going to cost £1.25 loaned to banks at .3% for them to pass on to anyone borrowing money for 7-30%. The end result will be that more money will need to be printed to loan money to cover the last loan you got.

And all the banks lead you in to further loans like the balloon payments of vehicles that mean that virtually everyone that takes one ends up having to get another bigger loan to get a new car.

Same with leasing - I still cannot see how its better than buying it on a loan in the first place. I just think its another way of making sure people have to get another loan at the end of the agreement.

DEBT = SLAVERY

 

[tedebear]

Recent banking empirical evidence would suggest otherwise.

Well we've all debated this one before on here but I believe that the government should have had the balls to let a few banks go, and to step out of the boardroom discussions between Lloyds and HBOS.

I think we should dictate how much risk banks should be able to take (ie regulate against allowing triple b- debt, or at least saying a bank must hold cash on deposit = to those loans) but I don't think governments should have a hand in how they run nor run them. Its a ludicrous conflict of interest.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

Yes we will. But it will take a truely great leader like Maggie Thatcher to turn things around like she did!

Don't be silly it was her that sold all the countries silver in the first place.

She started the whole thing off, we used to only have to worry about paying our energy bills from just one supplier, now we have to worry if we are on the right tariff, with the right supplier ( from about eight) getting all our discounts and how much its going to be next year.

Its the same with everything - phone contracts, bank loans, motor insurance its all a con to confuse everyone so they can make money out of you

 

[Chicken Runner61]

Well we've all debated this one before on here but I believe that the government should have had the balls to let a few banks go, and to step out of the boardroom discussions between Lloyds and RBS.

I think we should dictate how much risk banks should be able to take (ie regulate against allowing triple b- debt, or at least saying a bank must hold cash on deposit = to those loans) but I don't think governments should have a hand in how they run nor run them. Its a ludicrous conflict of interest.

They couldn't do that (unfortunatley) - we are three meals away from civil unrest let alone if people miss xfactor.

 

[tedebear]

They couldn't do that (unfortunatley) - we are three meals away from civil unrest let alone if people miss xfactor.

I know, still would have preferred it though.

 

[Don Quixote]

We used to have so many companies. What have we got now?! A big oil company, wow that will create jobs in this country! We have a music industry! I don't think the Beatles will keep us afloat somehow. What else?! Oh yeah the banks! RBS really did well didn't it. We are f***ed, this is it for us. Might as well move to France, they are already out...

 

[Chicken Runner61]

We used to have so many companies. What have we got now?! A big oil company, wow that will create jobs in this country! We have a music industry! I don't think the Beatles will keep us afloat somehow. What else?! Oh yeah the banks! RBS really did well didn't it. We are f***ed, this is it for us. Might as well move to France, they are already out...

Well at least they own our utilities (electric & water) Funny that another country can own OUR vital resources.

Mind you they are trying to sell EDF

 

[Robbie G]

The Quantative Easing thing is a real poisoned chalice, every pound printed is going to cost £1.25 loaned to banks at .3% for them to pass on to anyone borrowing money for 7-30%. The end result will be that more money will need to be printed to loan money to cover the last loan you got.

And all the banks lead you in to further loans like the balloon payments of vehicles that mean that virtually everyone that takes one ends up having to get another bigger loan to get a new car.

Same with leasing - I still cannot see how its better than buying it on a loan in the first place. I just think its another way of making sure people have to get another loan at the end of the agreement.

DEBT = SLAVERY

Where does the £1.25 cost come from?

I was under the impression that the newly printed money was swapping illiquid assets for liquid (money) ones.

 

[pork pie]

Don't be silly it was her that sold all the countries silver in the first place.

She started the whole thing off, we used to only have to worry about paying our energy bills from just one supplier, now we have to worry if we are on the right tariff, with the right supplier ( from about eight) getting all our discounts and how much its going to be next year.

Its the same with everything - phone contracts, bank loans, motor insurance its all a con to confuse everyone so they can make money out of you

In my opion, that was a very good thing! Breaking up any monopoly, and state-run organisation can only ever be good for the consumer.

If only we had someone like her to smash these ***** from the Post Office!

Even if you do believe that she "sold the county's silver", at least she did not sell-off our gold reserves for peanuts and sell-out to the IRA!

 

[Uncle C]

The Quantitative Easing thing is a real poisoned chalice,

I agree. The Labour Party is shit scared of what will happen when it stops underpinning our economy.

Soon they will have to face the end of Quantitative Easing, the end of 15% VAT and the reinstatement of Stamp Duty. Then things will really start to rock.

Look how they chickened out of ending the cash for scrapped cars.

It seems the whole shaky UK economy is built on shifting sand.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

Where does the £1.25 cost come from?

I was under the impression that the newly printed money was swapping illiquid assets for liquid (money) ones.

You cant print money without it costing in inflation somewhere along the line and the BOE will charge interest on it when it loans it. The tax payer make have swapped money for assets but when it gets paid back (if it gets paid back) I bet they will write some of the loan off.

And what assets? Bank premises? A loan book of debtors that can't pay? It can't be worth that much as they almost went bust owing it

 

[Robbie G]

You cant print money without it costing in inflation somewhere along the line and the BOE will charge interest on it when it loans it. The tax payer make have swapped money for assets but when it gets paid back (if it gets paid back) I bet they will write some of the loan off.

And what assets? Bank premises? A loan book of debtors that can't pay? It can't be worth that much as they almost went bust owing it

The whole point of them printing money is to get inflation. The Bank of England wants inflation expectations to be positive with the corresponding low nominal interest rate, so real interest rates become negative. The hope is then spending will increase in the economy.

The assets bought were predominantly gilts (secondary market government bonds)

 

[Barrel of Fun]

And your choice to be self employed and reap the benefits in good times so you can't have your cake and eat it

All of them? Every single self-employed person? Laughable. There are plenty of self-employed people that do something just to make ends meet or provide a service or do something that they love, without wishing to be the next Branson.