Not an expert, but it's something to do with the logarithmic scales used on the chart. Almost all the other countries have a concave downward curve - that is the rate of increase (not pure numbers) slowing down over time. But the US is more of a straight line, if not a slightly upward curve - which implies no slowing in the rate of increase.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Not an expert, but it's something to do with the logarithmic scales used on the chart. Almost all the other countries have a concave downward curve - that is the rate of increase (not pure numbers) slowing down over time. But the US is more of a straight line, if not a slightly upward curve - which implies no slowing in the rate of increase.
A question about antibody testing, I've heard that it's supposedly the next big thing which will drive the response to the virus, I've tried to avoid the news recently so was wondering if there was any sort of timescale put about as to when it'll be starting?
Bob'n'weave
Well-known member
Difficult to tell what timeline/issue they are going prioritise, safety gear, respirators, a bloody vaccine or mass testing. Germany are testing 500,000 people a week to get a handle on this and are doing well keeping the death toll low. Some countries are setting up 'drive through' test centres for the public. Also, we need both 'have you got it' and 'have you had it and beat the f*cker', tests. I would hope for mass availability for both within the next 2--3 weeks.
Not all that keen on the flow charts knocking around as these seem to be based on numbers recorded via test results and hospital-recorded deaths. How these figures are collated differs from country to country so comparisons are ball-park at best.
You said that looking at the graph confirmed your fear for the US
A massive international festival a few weeks ago is another issue that causes concern, but not something that's shown in the graph. NY is the main area of infection in the US at the moment, just like other countries have had their epicentres. Again, it's not something that's showing in the graph.
Which was too little too late. On 19 February 40,000 Atalanta supporters travelled from Bergamo to the San Siro for a CL match. Now highlighted by Italian politicians and epidemiologists as a biological bomb.
Other countries also had more of a straight line, which later fell. The US line is in an earlier stage, and would likely also fall if the US were to take the same measures as other countries. Of course the number of deaths in the US would pass the likes of Italy before the numbers fell, but that's because the US has a larger population. If you put the European countries into one line, it would look quite different.
As I've already posted, I too am concerned that the US has poor leadership, which could well lead to a lot more deaths, and that same graph could look a whole lot worse in a month's time.
Deportivo Seagull
I should coco
Any graph needs to be taken in context with actions put in place as a function of time. Lockdown, social distancing, etc.
If no countries had introduced any form of response then direct comparisons would be valid but even then social norms etc would have an effect.
Trump is (sadly) the perfect storm ....
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Machiavelli
Well-known member
You said that looking at the graph confirmed your fear for the US
Note to [MENTION=4019]Triggaaar[/MENTION]: fears are not exclusively directed towards the present*
* and that graph doesn't even refer to the present, it refers to the past moving towards the very recent past. As others have pointed out on here including me, the issue is not what the data indicate about the past, it's about the trajectory and, if you've followed things, you'll find that the trajectory for the US is extremely alarming.
From the Guardian's live Coronavirus feed...
"An investigation has been launched after pictures of a British footballer surfaced online following an incident in which a Range Rover crashed into parked cars.
West Midlands police said they were called to the Dickens Heath area of Solihull on Sunday just before 10am where the two parked cars suffered minor damage. The force said the driver left his details with a member of the public before leaving on foot.
Images surfaced online on Sunday of a damaged white Range Rover as well as a picture that appeared to show the Aston Villa midfielder Jack Grealish in slippers and a bright blue hoodie.
Less than 24 hours before the incident, the midfielder launched a video appeal for people to stay at home during the government-enforced lockdown. In the video, he said: “To help save lives you must stay at home. Only leave your house to buy food, buy medicine or to exercise and always remember to stay at least two metres apart. This is urgent, protect the NHS, stay home, save lives.”
In keeping with the general tone of NSC during this crisis, I am being kind. He probably needed toilet paper.
"An investigation has been launched after pictures of a British footballer surfaced online following an incident in which a Range Rover crashed into parked cars.
West Midlands police said they were called to the Dickens Heath area of Solihull on Sunday just before 10am where the two parked cars suffered minor damage. The force said the driver left his details with a member of the public before leaving on foot.
Images surfaced online on Sunday of a damaged white Range Rover as well as a picture that appeared to show the Aston Villa midfielder Jack Grealish in slippers and a bright blue hoodie.
Less than 24 hours before the incident, the midfielder launched a video appeal for people to stay at home during the government-enforced lockdown. In the video, he said: “To help save lives you must stay at home. Only leave your house to buy food, buy medicine or to exercise and always remember to stay at least two metres apart. This is urgent, protect the NHS, stay home, save lives.”
In keeping with the general tone of NSC during this crisis, I am being kind. He probably needed toilet paper.
studio150
Well-known member
After 25 minutes of news this morning I'm starting to believe I'm in more danger from Government catch phrases than the virus.
I lost count of the number of times 'ramping up' was used to cover for the PPE shortfall.
It's almost as if the Government believe catch phrases save lives.
I lost count of the number of times 'ramping up' was used to cover for the PPE shortfall.
It's almost as if the Government believe catch phrases save lives.
Anyone would think they have been ignoring their own guidance.
How will BJ cope without Cummings telling him what to say?
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,398
Any chance of this thread not being a political minefield of point scoring? Stick to the relevant thread 
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Any chance of this thread not being a political minefield of point scoring? Stick to the relevant thread
This. I care not a hoot who is leading the country right now, Boris, Corbyn whoever, as long as they are listening to advice and trying their best in such a difficult time.
Increasingly happy with the direction Sweden took.
One week ago I was desperate for a lockdown etc, now I'm of the opposite opinion.
While our curve has been excellent so far, our strategy will probably cost a few hundred (or thousand) lives in the nextcoming month but when the virus returns in the fall we'll be in a very good position with high levels of immunity.
I also sort of agree with the state epidemiologist (who is running the show, the politicans just do what him and his colleagues are saying), you only have one chance for lockdown. If you lock down too early you get little effect. If you go into lockdown, life resumes, and then you shortly have to lock people up again - you get chaos. So we're saving that for if/when its really, really needed.
Swedens have in the last week or so realised how dangerous this pandemic could be and despite not lockdown, more or less everyone is living like it. Bars and restaurants are still open but empty. As for the elders, we've ignored spending time with them since the 1960's and are happy to continue. Streets are empty. Our number of new ICU cases are increasing, but very slowly and this weekend we even had a decrease in new serious cases.
Very optimistic about how things are going here.
One week ago I was desperate for a lockdown etc, now I'm of the opposite opinion.
While our curve has been excellent so far, our strategy will probably cost a few hundred (or thousand) lives in the nextcoming month but when the virus returns in the fall we'll be in a very good position with high levels of immunity.
I also sort of agree with the state epidemiologist (who is running the show, the politicans just do what him and his colleagues are saying), you only have one chance for lockdown. If you lock down too early you get little effect. If you go into lockdown, life resumes, and then you shortly have to lock people up again - you get chaos. So we're saving that for if/when its really, really needed.
Swedens have in the last week or so realised how dangerous this pandemic could be and despite not lockdown, more or less everyone is living like it. Bars and restaurants are still open but empty. As for the elders, we've ignored spending time with them since the 1960's and are happy to continue. Streets are empty. Our number of new ICU cases are increasing, but very slowly and this weekend we even had a decrease in new serious cases.
Very optimistic about how things are going here.
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,398
Is this not a bit of an oxymoron? You say most people are living life like it’s a lockdown already, so how will herd immunity be achieved? Seems to me, like it’s just an unofficial lockdown and if a high amount of people are living like that, you could get a half way house situation and have a lot of people dying but over a longer period. Hope it works for you, but I think the Herd immunity idea will cost a lot of lives myself, time will tell!
Living like it's a lockdown but without workers and businesses getting the financial support they need. How are the bar and restaurant owners, for example, doing without customers? I imagine they'll be laying off staff.
Well, like a lockdown but slightly less restricted - like the "half way house" thing you mentioned.
I also hope it will work but its going to be impossible to tell before the whole pandemic is over. I also believe that it is going to cost a lot of lives now (could see us being very high in deaths per capita when we reach the expected drop in May/June) but save us a lot of lives in the very likely second wave of the pandemic and in the possible third.
ManOfSussex
We wunt be druv
I'm currently on hold to my work's IT help desk to get a laptop to work, that I was issued with earlier and is the only thing I can use to WFH, that doesn't have any power or even the right charger in the bag with it, whilst typing this on a desktop PC that works fine. For an old school, proud, out of the closet, technophobe such as myself, this is pure farce. Apparently I've got to download something onto my personal phone too, but I don't know what or even how. A bit presumptuous to think I would actually have a smartphone in the first place I think.
20 minutes on hold so far, it'll be well over an hour at least, maybe even two, until I speak to someone who doesn't work in my office that's now closed anyway, who won't be able to help me.
20 minutes on hold so far, it'll be well over an hour at least, maybe even two, until I speak to someone who doesn't work in my office that's now closed anyway, who won't be able to help me.