glenn murray

[Tony Meolas Loan Spell]

He snubbed the fans who were (even in jest) chanting for him to leave his wife, when he was clearly already really struggling at the club with personal issues etc?

What a terrible bloke, eh? He shouldn't have done it but it's completely understandable that he did.

Nope thats completely fair to say that!

 

[Hotchilidog]

He's got 31 goals in 76 league games for us and got 20 in 42 for Rochdale. I'd suggest in a team that isn't rubbish (as we have been since he's been here) and creating chances he'd get 20 goals easily.

I'm not sure about easily, but essentially I agree. I see no reason why Murray cannot be our main source of goals this season. I am not sure how many "proven" 20 a year strikers we could realistically be in the market for. I do however expect us to be able to get a decent 10-15 a year support striker in.

The key for this team is to create enough chances in the first place. I think Barnes is a more instinctive finisher than Murray and given good service could well rack up a decent number of goals next season.

 

[Easy 10]

Personally I think Barnes and Murray could form quite a potent partnership, if we can get enough games out of Glenn.

 

[B.W.]

He's got 31 goals in 76 league games for us and got 20 in 42 for Rochdale. I'd suggest in a team that isn't rubbish (as we have been since he's been here) and creating chances he'd get 20 goals easily.

... maybe, if he can avoid injuries / stupid suspensions, but a HUGE gamble...

 

[B.W.]

Oh, and Barnes another gamble, although if he continues like he did at the end of last season, he probably has about the same chance as Murray to get 20... the problem is that we have effectively ALMOST ZERO cover if EITHER get injured or suspended...

Therefore, logically, if we are serious about promotion, we need to invest NOW in a first-choice striker, or an extremely good backup AT THE VERY LEAST...

Sorry rose-tinted optimists...

 

[Hotchilidog]

Oh, and Barnes another gamble, although if he continues like he did at the end of last season, he probably has about the same chance as Murray to get 20... the problem is that we have effectively ALMOST ZERO cover if EITHER get injured or suspended...

Therefore, logically, if we are serious about promotion, we need to invest NOW in a first-choice striker, or an extremely good backup AT THE VERY LEAST...

Sorry rose-tinted optimists...

And that is why need to strengthen in this position urgently. I'm quite happy with Murray and Barnes but I don not think we can get through the season with just Holroyd and Hart in reserve.

Also looking for the midfield to chip in with 10-15 goals aswell.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Position, Team, Scored More, Conceded Less
1 Norwich City (C) (P) 33 13
2 Leeds United (P) 21 16
3 Millwall (P) 20 16
4 Charlton Athletic 17 3
5 Swindon Town 15 12
6 Huddersfield Town 26 4
13 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0

If we look at last season as a benchmark, we need to score something like 20 more goals than last season (making the total required 76) and we need to concede perhaps 15 less.

I'm convinced we'll concede fewer goals, but where will we find our 76 goals? Assuming Glenn stays (and stays fit/on the pitch), we might get:

GM - 18
AB - 12
Other attack - 5
Midfield - 20
Defence - 6
OGs - 3

Making 64 goals. Just a few more than last year, but 12 shy of promotion levels. To get promoted we need two players up front scoring 15+ each and they need to be backed up by strikers who can come in and score. Midfield looks more potent this year so maybe can generate 5 or 6 more than I guessed above. With one more striker, you might optimistically predict 74 goals, which would put is in the mix. So I'm not convinced we need a 20 goals a season guy - we need a 10 goals a season from the bench or when key strikers are injured:

GM - 18
AB - 12
Other attack - 10
Midfield - 25
Defence - 6
OGs - 3

 

[Acker79]

Position, Team, Scored More, Conceded Less
1 Norwich City (C) (P) 33 13
2 Leeds United (P) 21 16
3 Millwall (P) 20 16
4 Charlton Athletic 17 3
5 Swindon Town 15 12
6 Huddersfield Town 26 4
13 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0

If we look at last season as a benchmark, we need to score something like 20 more goals than last season (making the total required 76) and we need to concede perhaps 15 less.

I'm convinced we'll concede fewer goals, but where will we find our 76 goals? Assuming Glenn stays (and stays fit/on the pitch), we might get:

GM - 18
AB - 12
Other attack - 5
Midfield - 20
Defence - 6
OGs - 3

Making 64 goals. Just a few more than last year, but 12 shy of promotion levels. To get promoted we need two players up front scoring 15+ each and they need to be backed up by strikers who can come in and score. Midfield looks more potent this year so maybe can generate 5 or 6 more than I guessed above. With one more striker, you might optimistically predict 74 goals, which would put is in the mix. So I'm not convinced we need a 20 goals a season guy - we need a 10 goals a season from the bench or when key strikers are injured:

GM - 18
AB - 12
Other attack - 10
Midfield - 25
Defence - 6
OGs - 3

Those look like words and numbers, yet they make little sense...

What do you mean "scored more" "scored less"?

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Sorry - didn't annotate, was rushing. Scored More is the number of goals more that the team scored than BHA last season. Conceded less means the number of goals they conceded less than BHA.

So Norwich scored 33 more than us and conceded 13 fewer goals.

 

[Acker79]

Sorry - didn't annotate, was rushing. Scored More is the number of goals more that the team scored than BHA last season. Conceded less means the number of goals they conceded less than BHA.

So Norwich scored 33 more than us and conceded 13 fewer goals.

Ah. Well that makes a lot more sense now. I guess if you were in a rush with that, you probably won't have time to look over the last few seasons to see if these results are an anomaly, unusually high or low?

How does goal difference factor in?



I've mentioned before, one of my problems with the team last year was that when we were trailing, desperate for goals, the defence and midfield didn't get forward enough, they'd work the ball to the front line and let them take care of it. If we have a midfield that get forward, and a defence that are willing to push up and can get their share, I think we could easiuly get another 20 out of the non-strikers in the team. But I am being exceedingly positive in this post, I guess.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Correct - it's just a snapshot and merely giving an indication of the job we are likely to need to do - scoring 20 more and conceding 15 less doesn't sound too far out to me.

Goal difference tends to be a very good predictor of a teams final place - certainly in terms of approximate position in the league. I've never plotted it but the correlation last season was quite close bar a few explainable anomalies (eg Southampton last season).

 

[Foolg]

1 Leicester City 46 27 15 4 84 39 +45 96
2 Peterborough United 46 26 11 9 78 54 +24 89
3 Milton Keynes Dons 46 26 9 11 83 47 +36 87
4 Leeds United 46 26 6 14 77 49 17 2 4 49 +28 84
5 Millwall 46 25 7 14 63 53 +10 82
6 Scunthorpe United 46 22 10 14 82 63 +19 76


Thats the 08/09 Statistics, same as what TRHK posted, goals for in red and goals against in bold. Your looking in that season at about 75 goals scored and 50 or so conceded, very similar to this seasons stats.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Nice info Foolg. So probably we do need to find 20 more goals and tighten up by 15 at the back and we'll be somewhere close. A big ask, but doable - esp if we get another experienced striker (Nicky Forster esque?)

 

[Foolg]

Nice info Foolg. So probably we do need to find 20 more goals and tighten up by 15 at the back and we'll be somewhere close. A big ask, but doable - esp if we get another experienced striker (Nicky Forster esque?)

If we can get 10-15 goals out of Barnes, and 15+ out of Murray i think we still need another who can get 10 goals coming off the bench with the odd start (Dickinson IMO could have been that man). When you consider how we played for half a season, thats easily do-able, and i presume since Gus took over if we looked at the stats we may have been on track to get close to those figures needed. We conceeded 7 at Huddersfield which took those figures down quite a bit remember.

 

[CrumplinIsGod73]

We do need a proven striker, someone who can link well with, the obvious first choice fwd, (GM), for next season. Bringing in another fwd this late into the transfer window can only serve to give the doubters fuel, about a disjointed attack who have never played together. They way the current line up looks is fairly encouraging, Gus has made some decent signings and a few informed guesses (argies) but the weak link in the team ( for want of a better word) is the front line.
I just cant see barnes and Murray getting 30 between them!