[Politics] Brexit

[studio150]

, I cannot see why or how we are bound to be in a worse position economically outside rather than within,

most political and financial commentators agree that our economy has been a success story whilst those perhaps with a greater intimacy to the EU such as France and Italy and others within the Eurozone are failing economically, there seems very little evidence that our success is down to primarily to being within the EU otherwise why arent others enjoying similar successes ?

.

For the economic success you need to look at those in the eurozone and those outside of the euro, rather than a straight in or out of the EU.

We will be poorer going forward outside f the EU. There are a lot of Directives which directly impact on jobs which could see firms moving from the UK (as outside the EU) to Europe. There have already been reported stories of companies who handle data on a European basis from the UK will need to relocate as the data is not allowed to leave the EU so job losses
Much reduced foreign investment as companies looking to build new bases will locate in the EU to ensure that they have access to the EU market as opposed to the UK.
A lower pound with predictions of settling at $1.24 which means higher oil costs, so higher fuel, higher distribution costs, more expensive imports
The downgrading of London as the financial capital, so more job losses
Do we get access to the free market at existing terms, or are tariffs imposed thereby hitting exports
and the list goes on.

Why you have such confidence in a rosy future is beyond me

 

[Baldseagull]

Thanks very much.
I said that we'd be talking behind closed doors before it's invoked. I'm yet to see that isn't the case.
I didn't say they'd make it sweet, but they have a lot to lose so I imagine they'll want a deal done. But hey, I would right.

You have surprised me Trig, I expected the Resident Pedant to not be able to resist telling me that you were stupid, rather than gullible, as you reached these conclusions on your own rather than naively accepting what someone else said.
Just kidding with you.
I think Merkel will make, all the right noises in public, to suggest that she wants the E.U. to go easy on us, but privately will be looking for ways to make it hurt us a bit without hurting Germany. Bad sentiment will do more to damage Germany's exports to Britain than a few extra quid a month on a car lease.

 

[Triggaaar]

I think Merkel will make, all the right noises in public, to suggest that she wants the E.U. to go easy on us, but privately will be looking for ways to make it hurt us a bit without hurting Germany.

Surely it's her job to get the best deal for Germany, and linked with that the best deal for the EU.

I don't really understand the 'go easy on us' concept. We are not the EU's problem, I don't expect them to 'go easy', but then I don't expect us to roll over either, so I expect the EU to have no choice but do a deal that works for everyone. It's our leaders job to play hard but fair.

 

[BigGully]

For the economic success you need to look at those in the eurozone and those outside of the euro, rather than a straight in or out of the EU.

We will be poorer going forward outside f the EU. There are a lot of Directives which directly impact on jobs which could see firms moving from the UK (as outside the EU) to Europe. There have already been reported stories of companies who handle data on a European basis from the UK will need to relocate as the data is not allowed to leave the EU so job losses
Much reduced foreign investment as companies looking to build new bases will locate in the EU to ensure that they have access to the EU market as opposed to the UK.
A lower pound with predictions of settling at $1.24 which means higher oil costs, so higher fuel, higher distribution costs, more expensive imports
The downgrading of London as the financial capital, so more job losses
Do we get access to the free market at existing terms, or are tariffs imposed thereby hitting exports
and the list goes on.

Why you have such confidence in a rosy future is beyond me

You seem to be saying that we wish to withdraw from trading with the EU countries, we do not nor them us, the rest is tittle tattle and political posturing some from our side some from theirs.

We will no longer be part of the EU get over it, your statement could be spun round and redirected to the EU member states, how will Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Germany let alone the recently accessed countries prosper without trade with the UK, we were the second largest economy and a net importer of European goods, the clamber for doom doesnt make much business sense, its a new relationship not a dissolved one.

 

[Seagull58]

I think there is a lot at stake with any potential deal we may make. The last thing Germany will want is a deal that encourages other states to exit the EU with the potential for the EU to essentially collapse in the process.

Whatever your views of the EU, such a collapse would very definitely not benefit the ordinary man in this country IMO.

Surely, the last thing Germany wants is a deal that doesn't protect and encourage German trade with the UK? That is why Merkel has already decided that Juncker must go, plus the fact that he apparently drinks cognac for breakfast and was off his head when welcoming leaders at a recent EU meeting.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Surely, the last thing Germany wants is a deal that doesn't protect and encourage German trade with the UK? That is why Merkel has already decided that Juncker must go, plus the fact that he apparently drinks cognac for breakfast and was off his head when welcoming leaders at a recent EU meeting.

I think Juncker's had a problem for a while.

 

[Seagull58]

EU plenary session this morning - Juncker and Tusk seemed to be very bullish about the EU standing together as one with no indication that they're that bothered by UK's Brexit.

That's Juncker whose head is already on the block and Merkel has the axe in her hands.

 

[symyjym]

I think Juncker's had a problem for a while.

Brilliant

 

[pb21]

Agreed.
Well they wouldn't want to encourage others to leave, but I'm not sure it's the last thing they want. I'd think no trade with the UK is close to the last thing they want, I don't think that would be good for Germany or the rest of the UK.

Of course I totally agree. We want all of Europe to be a success.

Surely, the last thing Germany wants is a deal that doesn't protect and encourage German trade with the UK? That is why Merkel has already decided that Juncker must go, plus the fact that he apparently drinks cognac for breakfast and was off his head when welcoming leaders at a recent EU meeting.

I do wonder if Germany will only accept an agreement, which we may consider strict, in order to prevent the collapse of the EU?

Yanis Varoufakis wrote:

...the disintegration of this frustrating alliance (the EU) will create a vortex that will consume us all – a postmodern replay of the 1930s.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/05/yanis-varoufakis-why-we-must-save-the-eu

That is taken slightly out of context, but I agree with the point.

I suspect Germany and the rest of the EU would be of a similar opinion and therefore going into any negotiations this will be the last thing they want.

 

[marshy68]

But the EU perspective is now just a viewpoint no longer needed to be adhered to, like any other Country or bloc anywhere in the world we do not have an obligation towards it, its like every view from any other country anywhere, it will be discussed and agreed or not.

I cannot see how we could even consider free movement of people as a prerequisite to some kind of trade deal, can you imagine our smaller economy demanding something similar to say the USA, of course not, ultimately they need to trade with us and us with them, get talking and strike a deal.

PS: If you think lots of member states would also like to limit freedom of movement, then why arent they doing it

the don't have the small island big ego mentality?

 

[Triggaaar]

I do wonder if Germany will only accept an agreement, which we may consider strict, in order to prevent the collapse of the EU?

A fair agreement need not lead to the collapse of the EU. What if we will only accept a fair agreement? I believe that not trading with the UK (tariffs that make trade impractical) would lead to the collapse of the EU, so they will have to accept a fair agreement, or the EU will collapse.

 

[Seagull58]

Do you think the EU will budge on free movement of people? Genuine question. It seems to me that this is fundamentally core to the EU. If they give us access to the single market and we don't have to sign up to free movement of people I think lots of EU member states would try to leave to get the same deal, I just don't see that being allowed to happen from an EU perspective. If we sign up to a deal that allows free movement of people don't we have the same deal as now but with no influence at the EU table?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

How many of these free trade deals involve free movement of people?

 

[marshy68]

You seem to be saying that we wish to withdraw from trading with the EU countries, we do not nor them us, the rest is tittle tattle and political posturing some from our side some from theirs.

We will no longer be part of the EU get over it, your statement could be spun round and redirected to the EU member states, how will Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Germany let alone the recently accessed countries prosper without trade with the UK, we were the second largest economy and a net importer of European goods, the clamber for doom doesnt make much business sense, its a new relationship not a dissolved one.

not when it directly affects your life your partner and your children.

 

[studio150]

You seem to be saying that we wish to withdraw from trading with the EU countries, we do not nor them us, the rest is tittle tattle and political posturing some from our side some from theirs.

We will no longer be part of the EU get over it, your statement could be spun round and redirected to the EU member states, how will Greece, Spain, Italy, France, Germany let alone the recently accessed countries prosper without trade with the UK, we were the second largest economy and a net importer of European goods, the clamber for doom doesnt make much business sense, its a new relationship not a dissolved one.

I am not saying that we wish to withdraw from trading with the EU, merely that it wont be on the same terms and given that we are outside of the EU overseas countries such as China, japan and others who want to trade with the EU are more likely to set up new manufacturing centres inside the EU than in the UK which is outside.

Yes it a new relationship but are more expensive one in terms of job losses and the impact of devalued pound

 

[ManOfSussex]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

How many of these free trade deals involve free movement of people?

How many of those free trade deals involve full access to the single market as we have now though? How many potential new trade deals with Non EU countries are dependent on them knowing what level of access we will have to the single market in the future?

 

[marshy68]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

How many of these free trade deals involve free movement of people?

I think we are a different kettle of fish don't you? Leave and give us a great deal without free movement of people would in my opinion be the end of the EU and they wont want that.

 

[Seagull58]

I think we are a different kettle of fish don't you? Leave and give us a great deal without free movement of people would in my opinion be the end of the EU and they wont want that.

It could conceivably be the end of the EU only if other EU members want the same deal. Are the majority of EU states against free movement of people?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

How many of these free trade deals involve free movement of people?

Do you appreciate the difference between a trade deal and access to the single market?

 

[biddles911]

We cannot be sure, I cannot see why or how we are bound to be in a worse position economically outside rather than within, most political and financial commentators agree that our economy has been a success story whilst those perhaps with a greater intimacy to the EU such as France and Italy and others within the Eurozone are failing economically, there seems very little evidence that our success is down to primarily to being within the EU otherwise why arent others enjoying similar successes ?

I am not too sure away from the 'toxic revenge' deals and the inevitable short term uncertainty fluctuations why our position is likely to change too much, with a relatively succeeding economy negotiating with a group of failing economies it seems logical that we can negotiate something that is more positive than some expect.

I hope you're right but it depends on your definition of short term uncertainty. It's going to take (many?) years to negotiate new deals with all and sundry. In the meantime companies will move to Europe, investment will fall and jobs will be lost.

Don't buy your point about the EU economies. Whatever their current situation, combined they're a lot bigger than us and politics is likely to dictate a tough deal with the U.K. to discourage other potential backsliders.


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[Pavilionaire]

What the EU are singularly failing to consider with free movement of labour is what happens to the countries like Romania and Bulgaria that lose their young workforce and graduates? What economic hope have these countries got without those that create jobs and fill jobs?

Our NHS has failed to train UK citizens to become nurses and doctors - we simply recruit from overseas. It saves us having to spend money training them, let's get some other poor ******* to pay those bills. However, for every Romanian builder and Hungarian doctor than comes over here those countries will suffer with labour shortages.

What we're already seeing is Russia reasserting their strength in the former Iron Curtain countries by taking control of energy supplies. If things carry on like this in 20 years time Russia will have us over a barrel.