[Politics] Brexit

[BigGully]

Regardless of rhetoric, that can't true in reality because the minute that clause is invoked, our negotiating position is massively weakened. I do agree with you that we might get some sensible behaviour once the leadership is sorted out. Until then, it's all just posturing.



No you're absolutely right. Let's just abide by the result of a ridiculously tight referendum voted on by 34m voters who didn't have the facts at hand even though there is no way of reversing it if it transpires that this country has made an absolutely massive mistake.

It might not be a mistake of course, but how can we possible KNOW that until an exit deal has been negotiated?

Those that voted Leave had different reasons for doing so, but it seems obvious it was to sever the ties with the political union, no doubt and irrespective of any perceived risk to the economy, it is the majority of the Remainers that perhaps felt their own comfortable position financial or otherwise wasnt worth that perceived risk, it isnt obvious to me that a Remain vote was a vote to validate our membership other than consequence of leaving it.

I think medium term, if we prosper outside of it many Remainers will have absolutely no regrets that the Brexiteers won, whereas if we had Remained the Leavers would still be ideologically opposed to the EU without any significant reform of it.

It is for this reason that the referendum is to me a clear message of intent that our own association with the continued progression of political union has run its course and if as I suspect we can thrive outside of it, the majority of Remainers will quickly accept it.

 

[Jim in the West]

this is because remainers and EU have taken a big position of "no negotiation before Article 50", which cuts off this avenue. prehaps once the leadership is resolved there can be a grown up conversation with Merkel about just what can be discussed in advance to allow such a scenario.

That would be good - but now we have the prospect of Leadsom becoming the next PM, which would surely scupper that very sensible proposal.

 

[nicko31]

Those that voted Leave had different reasons for doing so, but it seems obvious it was to sever the ties with the political union, no doubt and irrespective of any perceived risk to the economy, it is the majority of the Remainers that perhaps felt their own comfortable position financial or otherwise wasnt worth that perceived risk, it isnt obvious to me that a Remain vote was a vote to validate our membership other than consequence of leaving it.

I think medium term, if we prosper outside of it many Remainers will have absolutely no regrets that the Brexiteers won, whereas if we had Remained the Leavers would still be ideologically opposed to the EU without any significant reform of it.

It is for this reason that the referendum is to me a clear message of intent that our own association with the continued progression of political union has run its course and if as I suspect we can thrive outside of it, the majority of Remainers will quickly accept it.

The here and now is another 31 year low for sterling. The ship needs a rudder and a pilot

 

[BigGully]

The here and now is another 31 year low for sterling. The ship needs a rudder and a pilot

You can cherry pick any good or bad news in the financial and currency markets and it seems thats what you have done ..........

 

[Jim in the West]

The here and now is another 31 year low for sterling. The ship needs a rudder and a pilot

Indeed - but Sterling is just a miniscule part of the problem. Carney is remaining outwardly calm, but we are gradually being immersed in a huge financial crisis. I don't think Joe Public has any idea of the extent of the economic challenges we now face. There will be less money for the NHS, schools, other public services, state pensions, etc, etc. There will be more unemployment, fewer houses built, and reduced opportunities. The man in the street will lose out. Perhaps - eventually - maybe 10 to 20 years from now, things may be back on track, but they are highly unlikely to be anywhere as positive as if we were remaining in the EU. The Brexit camp will obviously dismiss all this as "Project Fear", but it's already happening, and starting to get nasty.

 

[Jim in the West]

You can cherry pick any good or bad news in the financial and currency markets and it seems thats what you have done ..........

I must have missed the good news!

 

[BigGully]

I must have missed the good news!

No you just havent looked for it, its probably on the same site that informed you/us of sterling's fall in value .....

 

[Notters]

It won't be anything like as black and white as that. For a start, the majority is paper thin - 52-48 - and we're talking about a fundamental, risky change. Remember, unlike a GE, we can't unwind this decision once made. Secondly, this campaign has been fought with lies and mistruths. It's been underhand. Thirdly, the electorate haven't really been told what they were voting for when they voted Brexit. We have no idea what the deal is going to look like.

I'll repeat what I think is the only solution - that as winners of the referendum, senior Brexit campaigners are handed the negotiating reigns and they are held responsible for the exit deal, which is then put to a second referendum. Brexit people ought to have nothing to fear if they are convinced this is the way to go. Equally, remain people should accept it if the referendum produces the same result because by then, everything will have come out in the wash and we'll all know exactly where we stand.

I actually find it hard to accept this hasn't already been proposed. Then again, the number of Brexiters who have washed their hands of this mess they created pretty much shows exactly the sort of people we're dealing with. They are all gutless career politicians.

Agree with everything you say, though not sure the other EU countries would take kindly to us changing our minds. We've already muddied the waters. The referendum should have required a larger majority for such a fundamental change - as they do in Ireland. But I guess the reason it didn't is because it wasn't binding. But then this should have been explained from the outset - i.e. if it's only 55% one way or the other, then the opposite may happen.

 

[Notters]

Shall we just keep having referendums until the losers in the first referendum finally get their way. Will save more protests and whining in the long run.

There are no winners and losers, as it was only an informative referendum.

 

[Jim in the West]

No you just havent looked for it, its probably on the same site that informed you/us of sterling's fall in value .....

Have you seen what's happening out there? If you can find any genuinely good economic news for the UK economy, please let us know!

 

[BigGully]

Agree with everything you say, though not sure the other EU countries would take kindly to us changing our minds. We've already muddied the waters. The referendum should have required a larger majority for such a fundamental change - as they do in Ireland. But I guess the reason it didn't is because it wasn't binding. But then this should have been explained from the outset - i.e. if it's only 55% one way or the other, then the opposite may happen.

I think you would have some people closer to home that might have something to say about it also ...................

 

[Notters]

I think you would have some people closer to home that might have something to say about it also ...................

 

[Baldseagull]

I have to pick this claim up - one I've heard time and time again. Firstly, Remain didn't tell us what the EU would look like in 2030 either. The idea that in 14 years there wouldn't be further integration would be foolish - so what WAS going to be the outcome if we stayed ? We'll put aside that the remain campaign did very little to suggest the positives of staying - only the negatives of leaving.

Regardless, how would it be possible for Leave to lay out what the outcome would be when the EU won't negotiate until Article 50 is enacted ?

If closer political union was your fear, you should have payed attention to what Cameron came back from Brussels with in February.

The campaign to remain was poor, because the people leading the campaign were also in the position of wanting reform of the E.U., it is difficult to promote something as wonderful one minute, and then insist it needs massive change the next.
£350 million could be spent on the NHS was a lie top to bottom though, the other claims you could argue were aspirational, although there was an awful lot of backtracking on being able to achieve those aspirations the day after the vote. Almost everyone agrees, that full free access to the single market will involve free movement of labour, this is not a revelation from the E.U., everyone in the leave campaign knew then what they know now. The difference will be, migrants will not be entitled to the benefits of free healthcare and state financial support, which incidentally Cameron also got concessions on for Britain in February.

There is only one "good" reason for leave, if you voted to return the supremacy of UK courts for UK citizens, you will get that, no redress to the European Court for us, anything else will be at best a compromise of the the leave campaign promises, and will in some cases likely be the opposite.

 

[biddles911]

Those that voted Leave had different reasons for doing so, but it seems obvious it was to sever the ties with the political union, no doubt and irrespective of any perceived risk to the economy, it is the majority of the Remainers that perhaps felt their own comfortable position financial or otherwise wasnt worth that perceived risk, it isnt obvious to me that a Remain vote was a vote to validate our membership other than consequence of leaving it.

I think medium term, if we prosper outside of it many Remainers will have absolutely no regrets that the Brexiteers won, whereas if we had Remained the Leavers would still be ideologically opposed to the EU without any significant reform of it.

It is for this reason that the referendum is to me a clear message of intent that our own association with the continued progression of political union has run its course and if as I suspect we can thrive outside of it, the majority of Remainers will quickly accept it.

Fair point(s).

The question is how long and how much we might have to "suffer" before coming out the other side. It defies logic to assume that the economy won't get worse before it gets better (but by how much?).

As a Remainer, I certainly had my reservations about the EU "project" though we do have an opt-out over "ever closer union", of course, which seems to have escaped many Brexiteers?

Can't say sovereignty ever caused me sleepless nights either. Any Brexiteer care to suggest an EU-inspired law or two that worried them that much?

And yes, unbridled immigration did concern me too but I felt it was a price worth paying for free access to the market.

So I suppose I'm saying that both Remainers and Brexiteers had a multiplicity of competing issues to consider and without a further multiple choice referendum we're never going to know what either side considered really important or what shape of Brexit was required.

Rather demonstrates the stupidity of calling a referendum in the first place really!?

My major concern now is that the Government is going to be fully occupied with the consequences of Brexit for many years to come, including the possible break up of the Union, to the exclusion of pretty much anything else.

Hope it's all worth it?!


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[CHAPPERS]

Pound lower than $1.31 for the first time since 1985. This is going just great.

Mark Carney is not painting a great picture of things. The weak pound may not increase output as the UK is shunned.

Here's the Sun's political editor who backed Brexit...


Tom Newton Dunn Verified account
‏@tnewtondunn

So; banks' capital reserves to be spent, deficit to go back up, AAA credit rating lost. Six years of economics reversed in 12 days #Brexit

 

[marshy68]

I have to pick this claim up - one I've heard time and time again. Firstly, Remain didn't tell us what the EU would look like in 2030 either. The idea that in 14 years there wouldn't be further integration would be foolish - so what WAS going to be the outcome if we stayed ? We'll put aside that the remain campaign did very little to suggest the positives of staying - only the negatives of leaving.

Regardless, how would it be possible for Leave to lay out what the outcome would be when the EU won't negotiate until Article 50 is enacted ?

It still amazes me how people could vote leave for something they had no idea what the outcome of that vote would be. At least a remain vote meant the status quo would be maintained. I voted remain because my partner is French and now thanks to democracy our future is very uncertain and she feels shattered that a country she has lived in for 20 years (longer than she has lived in France) has rejected her right to remain here. I am thankful that our 18 month old daughter will be able to get a French passport and travel freely throughout Europe and have the opportunities that were offered to my generation. I have to respect the democratic process and we will have to wait and see what "deal" we can hammer out with Europe, however it wont be easy and I cant see Europe giving us free access to the single market without free movement of people. Sad and worrying times for my family and even more gauling that the people who got us into this mess have all now just happily walked away. Shambles doesn't even come close.

 

[Pavilionaire]

EU plenary session this morning - Juncker and Tusk seemed to be very bullish about the EU standing together as one with no indication that they're that bothered by UK's Brexit.

 

[Baldseagull]

this is because remainers and EU have taken a big position of "no negotiation before Article 50", which cuts off this avenue. prehaps once the leadership is resolved there can be a grown up conversation with Merkel about just what can be discussed in advance to allow such a scenario.

It is a sensible position for the E.U. to take, and predictable, it is not a decision at all of remain campaigners or voters though.
The E.U. could find itself in constant negotiations with other members if there is a risk free, take a look negotiation option to leaving.

 

[beorhthelm]

If closer political union was your fear, you should have payed attention to what Cameron came back from Brussels with in February.

we did. he came back with nothing tangible, and had rowed back from previous positions on the issues that where raised. he asked for little and got less.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Pound lower than $1.31 for the first time since 1985. This is going just great.

Mark Carney is not painting a great picture of things. The weak pound may not increase output as the UK is shunned.

Here's the Sun's political editor who backed Brexit...


Tom Newton Dunn Verified account
‏@tnewtondunn

So; banks' capital reserves to be spent, deficit to go back up, AAA credit rating lost. Six years of economics reversed in 12 days #Brexit

You see he is claiming he never backed it?