[Politics] Brexit

[cunning fergus]

Most food sold in shops in the UK is exempt from VAT. Or at least "zero-rated", which amounts to the same thing.

Only "luxury foods" are liable.

True, but I think that is a UK exemption under review (till the referendum is complete no doubt) and not the case in the wider EU?

In any event the key question is; are all the services and materials required to get the food from the farm to the shop exempt from EU VAT?

If the answer is no, prices are higher due to the EU........FACT.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

My preference is not to find a recession, unemployment, and a weaker pound post-Brexit.

The study looks at wages and seems to find a small drop in the wages of the least-skilled workers. I wonder if this is replicated across the whole economy and skill-sets. It has a very narrow focus so doesn't consider that extra jobs created through extra demand or say anything to say that migrants are not a benefit to the wider economy.

As you say the study looked at The impact of immigration on occupational wages so why would it say anything about the wider impact. It flatly contradicts your previous claim EU migrants do not push down wages though, the bit I highlighted/underscored. You believe Bank of England speculation about the future, the question is do you believe their findings after analysing hard evidence?

 

[melias shoes]

As you say the study looked at The impact of immigration on occupational wages so why would it say anything about the wider impact. It flatly contradicts your previous claim EU migrants do not push down wages though, the bit I highlighted/underscored. You believe Bank of England speculation about the future, the question is do you believe their findings after analysing hard evidence?

Don't be silly JC. They don't listen to hard facts but they love the word could.

 

[brighton fella]

Your mileage may vary but....


"Given that EU immigrants are making net contributions, there is no reason to think that they
should crowd out any public services. In fact, they are bringing extra resources that could be
used to increase spending on local health and education for the UK-born. In other words,
reducing EU immigration would generate the need for greater austerity. This would magnify
the need for cutbacks caused by the slower growth of the economy due to reduced trade and
investment identified by Dhingra et al (2016a, 2016b).
Although the fact that the government has been cutting back on public services cannot therefore
be blamed on immigrants, it is still interesting to see whether immigration has led to worse
local services.
If immigrants cause social disruption, we would expect this to be reflected in crime rates. Bell
et al (2013) find no effect of the big 2004 increase in immigration from East European countries
on crime.
Geay et al (2013) find no effect of immigration on aspects of educational attainment and
actually some positive effect from Polish children on UK-born pupils. The disadvantage in
having English as a second language seems to be outweighed by a stronger immigrant push to
work hard at school.
For the NHS, Wadsworth (2013) finds no greater usage of doctors and hospitals by immigrants
relative to the UK-born; and Giuntella et al (2015) find little effect on NHS waiting times.
These studies do not distinguish between EU and non-EU immigrants, but since EU immigrants
are younger than non-EU immigrants, they are less likely to use health services, so the results
are likely to be stronger. "


I'm not saying there are zero problems but lack of investment in infrastructure is a part of a government policy of austerity, a difference in your pocket is due to the financial crisis which has seen wages freeze. EU migrants do not push down wages.

What the financial crisis that the very same economists of who you expect me to put my trust in all failed to see coming ?
If we are to believe that mass immigration is so beneficial then by rights it should withstand a financial crisis.. not to mention the fact that the government wouldn't have any need to introduce austerity cuts.
mass immigration (the economists answer to prosperity)came along way before austerity cuts were being introduced so why then now almost 20 years on are we not seeing the benefits..either in our pockets or in our dilapidated under funded health service..?

 

[Soulman]

 

[GT49er]

The Bank warned a vote to leave the EU could:
Push the pound lower, “perhaps sharply”.

Good to have the cast-iron certainty of 'could' and 'perhaps' eh?

Prompt households and businesses to delay spending.

Reducing demand.......

Increase unemployment.

Reducing demand........

Hit economic growth.

Reducing demand..........

Stoke inflation.

....and lo and behold, prices rise as demand drops. Or could do. Perhaps.

 

[Steve in Japan]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-leaning-towards-brexit-guardian-poll-reveals

I find this a bit surprising given how the bookies are viewing the odds.

 

[5ways]

As you say the study looked at The impact of immigration on occupational wages so why would it say anything about the wider impact. It flatly contradicts your previous claim EU migrants do not push down wages though, the bit I highlighted/underscored. You believe Bank of England speculation about the future, the question is do you believe their findings after analysing hard evidence?

Yes it seems to push down wages very marginally for those on the lowest rung. But how marginal is marginal?

"And how small is small? Well, the first thing to note is that a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of migrants working in a sector – the amount needed to generate the “nearly 2 percent” wage impact is very large. Indeed, it is larger than the entire rise observed since the 2004-06 period in the semi/unskilled services sector, which is about 7 percentage points.

Moreover the estimated impact is partly simply a compositional one – reflecting the fact that migrants earn less, as well as the impact on native wages. Allowing for this, we can calculate that the new paper implies that the impact of migration on the wages of the UK-born in this sector since 2004 has been about 1 percent, over a period of 8 years. With average wages in this sector of about £8 an hour, that amounts to a reduction in annual pay rises of about a penny an hour."

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-small-small-impact-immigration-uk-wages#.V03JrvnhBhE

This should not obscure the wider point that this effect, less than one percent reduction over eight years, seems limited to only one part of the economy, that migrants create whole new jobs through new demand and are a net benefit to the Treasury.

 

[5ways]

Good to have the cast-iron certainty of 'could' and 'perhaps' eh?


Reducing demand.......


Reducing demand........


Reducing demand..........


....and lo and behold, prices rise as demand drops. Or could do. Perhaps.

We don't have a crystal ball, which is clearly about the only thing that might convince you. We only have practically every economist in the UK and abroad telling us that there are serious and deep consequences of Brexit to the prosperity and economic security of the country.

 

[gregbrighton]

The U k will implode if we Brexit. I don't think we should risk it.

 

[GT49er]

We don't have a crystal ball, which is clearly about the only thing that might convince you. We only have practically every economist in the UK and abroad telling us that there are serious and deep consequences of Brexit to the prosperity and economic security of the country.

You seriously think I would be more influenced or convinced by a crystal ball?

 

[5ways]

You seriously think I would be more influenced or convinced by a crystal ball?

Dr Who popping by to warn us all of Brexit induced stagnation?

 

[Soulman]

We don't have a crystal ball, which is clearly about the only thing that might convince you. We only have practically every economist in the UK and abroad telling us that there are serious and deep consequences of Brexit to the prosperity and economic security of the country.

You seem to be very hung up on prosperity, profit and economic security, which COULD be the case under Brexit.
It has also been stated by other "economists" and indeed the top man of the Swiss that we would have a tough couple of years but would benefit in the long term with Brexit.
This brings me back to my first point re your prosperity, profit and economic security, not any mention of our sovereignty our culture our traditions,laws etc...... you just seem to see the pound signs and to hell with other matters that are important, reasons why many favour Brexit.

 

[Soulman]

The U k will implode if we Brexit. I don't think we should risk it.

Really...... bit dramatic, maybe the EU (with a bit of luck) will implode if we Brexit..... hope so.

 

[GT49er]

Dr Who popping by to warn us all of Brexit induced stagnation?

He warned us about Daleks, and that never happened...............

...so, no.

 

[Soulman]

 

[beorhthelm]

You think I'm a tory!!!!!!!

Remove the subsidy from farmers then they will put their prices up who suffers then?

the uneconomical farmer. i dont think you understand how the CAP subsidies work, they are not there to lower prices for the consumer, they are intented to keep farmers, in particular small farmers, afloat against the backdrop of world wide industrialistion of argriculture which suppress prices. the French didnt want to see their little quaint farming methods replaced by run by US/Soviet style prairies, and there was a mood that Europe should keep a strategic argi-business viable. honourable intentions, but not for the purpose of keeping the end product cheap. with tariffs on food imports, the EU does the opposite keeping prices higher in the the EU than they would otherwise be.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

the uneconomical farmer. i dont think you understand how the CAP subsidies work, they are not there to lower prices for the consumer, they are intented to keep farmers, in particular small farmers, afloat against the backdrop of world wide industrialistion of argriculture which suppress prices. the French didnt want to see their little quaint farming methods replaced by run by US/Soviet style prairies, and there was a mood that Europe should keep a strategic argi-business viable. honourable intentions, but not for the purpose of keeping the end product cheap. with tariffs on food imports, the EU does the opposite keeping prices higher in the the EU than they would otherwise be.

And all this at our expense and more importantly at the expense of poor African farmers who cannot compete with the subsidised prices. But the remainers don't care about the poor in Britain so why would we expect them to care about poor African farmers priced out by the CAP?

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[portslade seagull]

The U k will implode if we Brexit. I don't think we should risk it.

Says who?

 

[beorhthelm]

i'm reminded to day of the contradictions behind the remain campaign championing the case to protect The City and finance industry. it wasnt long ago they were arguing over regulations from bestowed from the EU to restrict various areas of trading and finance, and how many businesses are setup in the UK rather than Frankfurt or Paris precisely because we have a lighter regulation than they do, which they seek to adress through imposing their regulation upon us. tens of thousands of the jobs the remainers seek to protect by staying in will be underthreat if we stay in.

one particularly onerous set of of regulations still being considered on the quiet is the financial transaction tariff, or robin hood tax as people who think its a good idea like to call it, which will increase the cost of all financial products including your mortgage, loans, pension, currency exchange, insurance, and banking. its been viewed as counter productive by an EU report, it was viewed as a potential disaster for the City by PwC (the same PwC saying how bad the economy will be if we leave EU), but it hasn't gone away and is scheduled for further discussion this summer having been postponed until after some awkward referendum is over. there's few things postponed like that, its as if they are concerned it might sway the vote... a vote to remain is for a different set of changes