[Politics] Brexit

[Maldini]

you can skip to about 3:30 - one of my favourite youtube channels sets it out quite clearly.

It doesn't tell me if migrant tax is EXTRA or REPLACES so I don't know what the economic benefit is.It doesn't tell me if there is an economic benefit
if this is wiped out by the cost of new housing,schools,hospitals,police,transport,general infrastructure needed.It doesn't explain to me
why it is that I speak to people through my work who tell me wages within their companies are being driven down by migrants.
It doesn't tell me what will be the percentage of migrants in the UK in 20/30 years.It doesn't tell me how to ignore our loss of sovereignty.
It doesn't tell me I should accept more and more laws will be made by the EU thus I will no longer be living in a democracy.

As I said there are plenty of google reports for and against.

 

[Maldini]

you can skip to about 3:30 - one of my favourite youtube channels sets it out quite clearly.

What's your ceiling?How many migrants will you accept?
Are you happy to lose sovereignty,the ability for us to be a total democracy if we stay in the EU?

Your question to me would be something like am I prepared to have an economic downturn should we leave?
Yes I am.

 

[Maldini]

----------

 

[Maldini]

From the actual abstract of the report, rather than filtered through jaundiced Daily Express eyes: "We also investigate if there is any differential impact between immigration from the EU and non-EU, and find that there is no additional impact on aggregate UK wages as a result of migrants arriving specifically from EU countries."

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefingPaper/document/235

'1.1 House of Lords Report
In 2008 the report of the Economic Affairs Committee of the House of Lords concluded (Abstract summarizing the key conclusions of the report) (Click here):
Overall GDP, which the Government has persistently emphasised, is an irrelevant and misleading criterion for assessing the economic impacts of immigration on the UK. The total size of an economy is not an index of prosperity. The focus of analysis should rather be on the effects of immigration on income per head of the resident population. Both theory and the available empirical evidence indicate that these effects are small, especially in the long run when the economy fully adjusts to the increased supply of labour. In the long run, the main economic effect of immigration is to enlarge the economy, with relatively small costs and benefits for the incomes of the resident population'


Now you're supposed to come back with a report that says there will be no increase in migrants over the next,say,20 years,
that EU will make none of our laws and we won't lose our sovereignty.

 

[cunning fergus]

You think I'm a tory!!!!!!!

Remove the subsidy from farmers then they will put their prices up who suffers then? The worst affected will be the poor. At the moment, the low paid don't pay much tax so they probably contribute very little to the subsidy, and rightly so. Your plan will see them have to fork out for higher prices.

Of course you are, listen to yourself.........do you disagree with the following 2 statements?

The working class poor in this country will be served best by their elected Government regaining control of the labour market, so that over supply can be managed to stabilise labour rates.

UK Taxpayers will be served best by having their tax contributions spent in this country not being handed over to foreign farmers not to grow stuff courtesy of an unelected capitalist cabal.

If we have to subsidise, we can subsidise our own in the short term and still have money left over, plus the consumer will benefit from the UK opening up its markets to food grown in developing economies that are currently denied access to the UK because of EU rules. Win win.

 

[cunning fergus]

That vastly over simplifies CAP subsidies. In some cases farmers are paid NOT to produce anything - it was the EU's 'clever' plan to stop the infamous EU 'butter mountains'. In other cases farmers are given subsidies to plant hedges etc. It's not all about producing food.

It doesn't matter.....the UK is not subsidising itself, we are paying other countries farmers.

If it was just the UK you may have a point, but even then it is not right to have subsidies for farmers, plus have food prices artificially high.

This is not a sign that the EU is working, CAP is a disgrace and frankly an insult.

 

[5ways]

What's your ceiling?How many migrants will you accept?
Are you happy to lose sovereignty,the ability for us to be a total democracy if we stay in the EU?

Your question to me would be something like am I prepared to have an economic downturn should we leave?
Yes I am.

These are fair questions. I don't know what the ceiling is but I actually think we've hit it. The big waves of migration happened when Eastern bloc countries first joined the EU. Those who wanted to move did, and now it fluctuates based on opportunities and economic strength. This seems okay to me.

The idea of total and relative democracy is intruging but of course we are not a 'total democracy' anyway, we do not vote on every issue. We elect people to do this for us. We do this in Westminster and the EU. It could be more democratic and more transparent yes, but this also requires engaging with European institutions - something few have bothered with. The more people care the more democratic it will become. Hopefully this referendum will energise people to think about the EU parliament more after the remain vote.

Sovereignty is also relative. Sovereignty is your ability to act on your own volition. What determines this ultimately is how strong you are. Greece is less sovereign than Germany because Germany is much stronger. Greece is still sovereign but its ability to do as it pleases is strongly curtailed. Our ability to do as we please if we left would be diminished because we would have to accept the rules rather than write them, we would be subject to nearly all EU law but have no recourse to amend or change this law. We would therefore be less sovereign outside of the EU.

 

[brighton fella]

we are subsidising the cost of food by subsidising Farmers? Without Farm Subsidies food costs would have to rise.

And where do you think these subsidies come from ...indirectly our own pockets. so subsequently providing the government plays fair it would make no odds to us if the farms do decide to put a rise on their products.
.

 

[drew]

And where do you think these subsidies come from ...indirectly our own pockets. so subsequently providing the government plays fair it would make no odds to us if the farms do decide to put a rise on their products.
.

It's taxation that pays for the subsidies. You are aware that the low paid will pay less tax due to tax allowances however, if prices rose, then they would pay the same as everyone else.

 

[drew]

It doesn't matter.....the UK is not subsidising itself, we are paying other countries farmers.

If it was just the UK you may have a point, but even then it is not right to have subsidies for farmers, plus have food prices artificially high.

This is not a sign that the EU is working, CAP is a disgrace and frankly an insult.

Where is your evidence that food prices are artificially high? If anything, the expansion of the likes of Aldi and Lidl have driven down prices over the last few years.

 

[brighton fella]

you can skip to about 3:30 - one of my favourite youtube channels sets it out quite clearly.

What a complete load of tosh.
Lets just pretend that this was true it still fails to point out the problems that mass immigration bring with it .. like the added pressure it puts upon it's infrastructure..and the growing tensions it creates within communities among'st it's so many different cultures. .

If the country benefits so much from mass immigration then why haven't we seen new hospitals new schools etc propping up all over the country and why haven't we felt a difference in our pockets, instead our health service is in a f*cking shambles and our country is in f*cking dept. . .

 

[5ways]

What a complete load of tosh.
Lets just pretend that this was true it still fails to point out the problems that mass immigration bring with it .. like the added pressure it puts upon it's infrastructure..and the growing tensions it creates within communities among'st it's so many different cultures. .

If the country benefits so much from mass immigration then why haven't we seen new hospitals new schools etc propping up all over the country and why haven't we felt a difference in our pockets, instead our health service is in a f*cking shambles and our country is in f*cking dept. . .

Your mileage may vary but....


"Given that EU immigrants are making net contributions, there is no reason to think that they
should crowd out any public services. In fact, they are bringing extra resources that could be
used to increase spending on local health and education for the UK-born. In other words,
reducing EU immigration would generate the need for greater austerity. This would magnify
the need for cutbacks caused by the slower growth of the economy due to reduced trade and
investment identified by Dhingra et al (2016a, 2016b).
Although the fact that the government has been cutting back on public services cannot therefore
be blamed on immigrants, it is still interesting to see whether immigration has led to worse
local services.
If immigrants cause social disruption, we would expect this to be reflected in crime rates. Bell
et al (2013) find no effect of the big 2004 increase in immigration from East European countries
on crime.
Geay et al (2013) find no effect of immigration on aspects of educational attainment and
actually some positive effect from Polish children on UK-born pupils. The disadvantage in
having English as a second language seems to be outweighed by a stronger immigrant push to
work hard at school.
For the NHS, Wadsworth (2013) finds no greater usage of doctors and hospitals by immigrants
relative to the UK-born; and Giuntella et al (2015) find little effect on NHS waiting times.
These studies do not distinguish between EU and non-EU immigrants, but since EU immigrants
are younger than non-EU immigrants, they are less likely to use health services, so the results
are likely to be stronger. "


I'm not saying there are zero problems but lack of investment in infrastructure is a part of a government policy of austerity, a difference in your pocket is due to the financial crisis which has seen wages freeze. EU migrants do not push down wages.

 

[Murray 17]

I think if Remain wins the vote, it will only be a matter of time before we pull back or leave Europe. People will see the effects of the new countries joining, and the drive to closer union/one state, and want out. Maybe not in the next year or two, but it will come.

The Scottish Referendum is a good example of the people driving towards independence. The rise of the SNP is a strong show of nationalism - if they held a vote today I think it could be as much as 70:30 in favour of leaving the UK.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Your mileage may vary but....


"Given that EU immigrants are making net contributions, there is no reason to think that they
should crowd out any public services. In fact, they are bringing extra resources that could be
used to increase spending on local health and education for the UK-born. In other words,
reducing EU immigration would generate the need for greater austerity. This would magnify
the need for cutbacks caused by the slower growth of the economy due to reduced trade and
investment identified by Dhingra et al (2016a, 2016b).
Although the fact that the government has been cutting back on public services cannot therefore
be blamed on immigrants, it is still interesting to see whether immigration has led to worse
local services.
If immigrants cause social disruption, we would expect this to be reflected in crime rates. Bell
et al (2013) find no effect of the big 2004 increase in immigration from East European countries
on crime.
Geay et al (2013) find no effect of immigration on aspects of educational attainment and
actually some positive effect from Polish children on UK-born pupils. The disadvantage in
having English as a second language seems to be outweighed by a stronger immigrant push to
work hard at school.
For the NHS, Wadsworth (2013) finds no greater usage of doctors and hospitals by immigrants
relative to the UK-born; and Giuntella et al (2015) find little effect on NHS waiting times.
These studies do not distinguish between EU and non-EU immigrants, but since EU immigrants
are younger than non-EU immigrants, they are less likely to use health services, so the results
are likely to be stronger. "


I'm not saying there are zero problems but lack of investment in infrastructure is a part of a government policy of austerity, a difference in your pocket is due to the financial crisis which has seen wages freeze. EU migrants do not push down wages.

The Bank of England says they do. Both EU and non EU migrants do have a negative effect pushing down wages. Especially in semi/unskilled services.

This paper asks whether immigration has any impact on wages. It answers this question by considering the variation of wages and immigration across regions, occupations, and time.Occupations turn out to be a relatively important dimension. Once the occupational breakdown is incorporated into a regional analysis of immigration, the immigrant-native ratio has a significant small impact on the average occupational wage rates of that region.
Closer examination reveals that the biggest effect is in the semi/unskilled services sector, where a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 2 percent reduction in pay...

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf

 

[cunning fergus]

Where is your evidence that food prices are artificially high? If anything, the expansion of the likes of Aldi and Lidl have driven down prices over the last few years.

The EU's own VAT rate is levied on top of national members states own VAT which means everything is more expensive where VAT is charged.

Therefore farmers and consumers should get an immediate reduction in costs on everything that is EU VAT-able on Brexit lowering prices all round.

Great news for the poor.

 

[5ways]

The Bank of England says they do. Both EU and non EU migrants do have a negative effect pushing down wages. Especially in semi/unskilled services.

This paper asks whether immigration has any impact on wages. It answers this question by considering the variation of wages and immigration across regions, occupations, and time.Occupations turn out to be a relatively important dimension. Once the occupational breakdown is incorporated into a regional analysis of immigration, the immigrant-native ratio has a significant small impact on the average occupational wage rates of that region.
Closer examination reveals that the biggest effect is in the semi/unskilled services sector, where a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 2 percent reduction in pay...

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf

Always happy to listen to what the BoE has to say. This is what they said about Brexit:


The Bank warned a vote to leave the EU could:

Push the pound lower, “perhaps sharply”.
Prompt households and businesses to delay spending.
Increase unemployment.
Hit economic growth.
Stoke inflation.

 

[Trufflehound]

The EU's own VAT rate is levied on top of national members states own VAT which means everything is more expensive where VAT is charged.

Therefore farmers and consumers should get an immediate reduction in costs on everything that is EU VAT-able on Brexit lowering prices all round.

Great news for the poor.

Most food sold in shops in the UK is exempt from VAT. Or at least "zero-rated", which amounts to the same thing.

Only "luxury foods" are liable.

 

[Bakero]

What a complete load of tosh.
Lets just pretend that this was true it still fails to point out the problems that mass immigration bring with it .. like the added pressure it puts upon it's infrastructure..and the growing tensions it creates within communities among'st it's so many different cultures. .

If the country benefits so much from mass immigration then why haven't we seen new hospitals new schools etc propping up all over the country and why haven't we felt a difference in our pockets, instead our health service is in a f*cking shambles and our country is in f*cking dept. . .

When was our country not in debt?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Always happy to listen to what the BoE has to say. This is what they said about Brexit:


The Bank warned a vote to leave the EU could:

Push the pound lower, “perhaps sharply”.
Prompt households and businesses to delay spending.
Increase unemployment.
Hit economic growth.
Stoke inflation.

I thought you would be delighted having that Remain study contradicted. Happy to listen and change your mind?

Brexit - predictions aren't the same as analysing something that has already happened - findings.

 

[5ways]

I thought you would be delighted having that Remain study contradicted. Happy to listen and change your mind?

Brexit - predictions aren't the same as analysing something that has already happened - findings.

My preference is not to find a recession, unemployment, and a weaker pound post-Brexit.

The study looks at wages and seems to find a small drop in the wages of the least-skilled workers. I wonder if this is replicated across the whole economy and skill-sets. It has a very narrow focus so doesn't consider that extra jobs created through extra demand or say anything to say that migrants are not a benefit to the wider economy.