[Politics] 2020 US election - Joe Biden vs Donald Trump

[Machiavelli]

AZ & PA seem critical... is that right? Just getting up to speed with what’s been going on.

Here's my summary from c45 minutes ago:
-- massive spike in turnout not translating into blue wave
-- Pennsylvania suggesting they are unlikely to declare until Friday. Michigan and Wisconsin won't for a while too
-- Those three are the ones most likely to determine the contest
-- Other potential Biden gains of Ohio, North Carolina and Florida look as though they're staying for Trump [think they've all been declared for Trump now]
-- Arizona looking very positive for Biden though. Nebraska might go his way too, which wasn't called as a swing state
-- Another bad night for the pollsters

 

[highflyer]

But the Democrats don't have to do a single thing to shift their position though do they.

They can rely on their large cities to carry them and do sweet FA for much of rural America.

If the democrats position currently appeals to a majority then why would they change? It shows that they should win. Why should the interests of any one group be more important than another? That's how democracy works.

In reality of course it wouldn't be as simplistically static as you paint it. The republicans might try and shift position, to keep as much of their current vote as possible while also capturing enough of the current democrat vote (always responding to changing context and changing demographics). Or they may choose another option, to try and moblize current non-voters who do not feel represeneted by either party. In response the democrats would probably need to change as well in order to try and retain an advantage in the popular vote. In a different system, voters may behave differently (eg more people may vote if they feel their vote actually counts) so that would also need to be taken into account by both parties.

It certainly would NOT automatically mean one party in power forever. It would mean politics becoming more responsive to the majority of citizens.

 

[Bakero]

I think it's two.

PA and one other (Michigan or Wisconsin)

 

[Machiavelli]

To add:
-- Trump calling shenanigans already
-- in Biden's speech, he seemed less confident about Pennsylvania than he did about Michigan and Wisconsin
-- when speaking about Georgia, [MENTION=12101]Mellotron[/MENTION] has it as I do, but also to add to that the rationale he offers for that is what I've expected to play out in the other key swing states

 

[Is it PotG?]

Trump 8/11
Biden 11/10

 

[Goldstone1976]

-- when speaking about Georgia, [MENTION=12101]Mellotron[/MENTION] has it as I do, but also to add to that the rationale he offers for that is what I've expected to play out in the other key swing states

Which, in a nutshell, is...?

 

[Machiavelli]

I think it's two.

Here's my maths on it:
-- in 2016, it was 306 to 232
-- you need 270 to get The White House, so Biden needs 38
-- Arizona still to call, but in the lead, that's 11 (so, if this comes in, another 27 needed)
-- the three rust-belt states are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
-- two unexpected potential Biden gains are Georgia (16) and Nebraska (5)

So, if Arizona comes in, he needs 27 from those five states last mentioned

 

[Eeyore]

Isn't it straightforward ? It's close. You wait till all the votes are counted

 

[Machiavelli]

Which, in a nutshell, is...?

See post 374, but I'll go with the last votes to be counted are those in Democrat-leaning areas

 

[Machiavelli]

Isn't it straightforward ? It's close. You wait till all the votes are counted

It is, but I'm not sure that helps our quest for certainty, nor our urge to speculate. Both of these are in evidence, I'm guilty of them, and they hardly sit comfortably alongside one another.

 

[Goldstone1976]

See post 374, but I'll go with the last votes to be counted are those in Democrat-leaning areas

Thanks. I hadn’t realised that the 300k lead referred to GA.

The next few days (weeks if the lawyers get involved) are going to be pretty ugly.

 

[Machiavelli]

Thanks. I hadn’t realised that the 300k lead referred to GA.

The next few days (weeks if the lawyers get involved) are going to be pretty ugly.

The last five years have been pretty ugly (and I'm probably being generous there). I don't see it coming to an end any time soon either.

 

[Bakero]

Here's my maths on it:
-- in 2016, it was 306 to 232
-- you need 270 to get The White House, so Biden needs 38
-- Arizona still to call, but in the lead, that's 11 (so, if this comes in, another 27 needed)
-- the three rust-belt states are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
-- two unexpected potential Biden gains are Georgia (16) and Nebraska (5)

So, if Arizona comes in, he needs 27 from those five states last mentioned

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and its one vote, projected to go for Biden, meaning Az, Wisconsin and Michigan would be enough even if he loses PA.

 

[Machiavelli]

Here's my maths on it:
-- in 2016, it was 306 to 232
-- you need 270 to get The White House, so Biden needs 38
-- Arizona still to call, but in the lead, that's 11 (so, if this comes in, another 27 needed)
-- the three rust-belt states are Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
-- two unexpected potential Biden gains are Georgia (16) and Nebraska (5)

So, if Arizona comes in, he needs 27 from those five states last mentioned

Correction (I think -- please confirm on this if you know the situation):
-- Nebraska's electoral college is 'disaggregated', and the potential is that those 5 votes are split between the candidates

 

[nicko31]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and it's one vote, projected to go for Biden, meaning Az, Wisconsin and Michigan would be enough even if he loses PA.

Could be incredibly close. Poles (Trump spelling) so wrong

 

[Machiavelli]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and its one vote, projected to go for Biden, meaning Az, Wisconsin and Michigan would be enough even if he loses PA.

Thanks. Can you clarify the question in 394 (which would require a little more than you've provided in this post)?

 

[Eeyore]

Well, it's lovely how civil this thread has been overnight. One suspects we should enjoy that for now.

 

[Bakero]

Thanks. Can you clarify the question in 394 (which would require a little more than you've provided in this post)?

Nebraska gives 2 votes to the state winner and one vote to the winner of each of the 3 districts.

 

[Machiavelli]

Well, it's lovely how civil this thread has been overnight. One suspects we should enjoy that for now.

The brutality of numbers can prove somewhat sobering. I know this, because they've generated disappointment throughout most my life.

 

[Wellesley]