Would you take a place in the PO Final now...

[gripper stebson]

...or take our chances on top two?

Well?

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

Take our chances.. Could be the best chance we have to go up automatically for a long time to come.

 

[skipper734]

No. I'm all in.

 

[Megazone]

It's a no brainer.







Play off final all day long.

 

[gripper stebson]

Take our chances.. Could be the best chance we have to go up automatically for a long time to come.

I'm with you I think.

 

[sparkie]

Go for top 2.

 

[DavidRyder]

I'm going to say 'yes' to the PO Final, but that's just because I'm a natural pessimist! Can we finish top 2 though - of course!

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Probability wise its quite close.

The play off final would represent an approx. 50% chance of success.

The alternative is ABOUT a 25% chance of top two as things stand, but with the fall-back of a further 25% chance of play-off success.

I'd take the guaranteed play-off final if that were offered. You'd be daft not to, I think.

 

[pb21]

I would say the odds are lower than 50/50 at the moment for finishing in the top 2, which is pretty much what the final gives, so on that basis I would say the PO final is the best bet, so I cant see a logical reason for not, irrational maybe!

 

[Eeyore]

Probability wise its quite close.

The play off final would represent an approx. 50% chance of success.

The alternative is ABOUT a 25% chance of top two as things stand, but with the fall-back of a further 25% chance of play-off success.

I'd take the guaranteed play-off final if that were offered. You'd be daft not to, I think.

Saved me my summary.

 

[Bombadier Botty]

I've never placed a bet in my life, don't understand the appeal of gambling at all, but no way would I take a play off final on this one. To quote some X-Fighter pilot (who I think dies seconds later) during the 1977 Star Wars film Death Star run scene when they were getting strafed by Imperial Tie Fighters: "Stay on target, Stay on target"

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I would say the odds are lower than 50/50 at the moment for finishing in the top 2, which is pretty much what the final gives, so on that basis I would say the PO final is the best bet, so I cant see a logical reason for not, irrational maybe!

In terms of the odds, remember that if you miss out on top two, you then get a fall-back chance in the play-offs, to ADD to your probability.

 

[Seasidesage]

Given that Burnley are probably going to win it. That means we have less than a 33% chance of the last auto place given Boro still have a 2 point advantage and Hull a 2 game one. So I would take the 50% option of the play off final without hesitation...

 

[nwgull]

Given that Burnley are probably going to win it. That means we have less than a 33% chance of the last auto place given Boro still have a 2 point advantage and Hull a 2 game one. So I would take the 50% option of the play off final without hesitation...

But you've not added the 25% chance that we'd have from reaching the play offs in the first place, meaning that it's better to go for auto with the fall back of the play off semis if we fail.

 

[Phat Baz 68]

No chance not now

 

[glasfryn]

top two

 

[LlcoolJ]

Given that Burnley are probably going to win it.

Wish people would stop saying this. They're on a great run but have had the rub of the green quite a few times and there's a long way to go.

When Boro were about 12 points ahead of us with games in hand, loads of people were saying they were "gone" and would walk to the title. Now look.

It's all conjecture but if you've learnt anything this season then surely it's that nothing is a given.

 

[Peter Grummit]

Probability wise its quite close.

The play off final would represent an approx. 50% chance of success.

The alternative is ABOUT a 25% chance of top two as things stand, but with the fall-back of a further 25% chance of play-off success.

I'd take the guaranteed play-off final if that were offered. You'd be daft not to, I think.

Probability doesn't quite work like that.

Assume your probabilities are correct. Assume there are 100 possible outcomes. 25 are automatic promotion, then 75 are playoffs. We then have 1 in 4 of the playoff outcomes that get us promoted. So there are 25 + (75/4) = 43.75% chance of promotion. This is because finishing top 2 and qualifying for the playoffs are not independent events

The way to intuitively realise this is correct is to take Burnley's position. Assume they have an 80% chance of promotion, 20% chance of making playoffs. You wouldn't then add a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs, else they would have a total probability of being promoted of 80 + 25 = 105%! They actually have 80% + (20/4) = 85% chance.

So, I would go for the guaranteed playoff final.

PG

 

[DavidRyder]

Wins against Reading and MK and I think our top 2 assault will look much stronger

 

[LlcoolJ]

But yes, at this stage I would take the 50/50 shot because it's logical (and nothing to do with thinking Burnley have the title in the bag).