Would you take a place in the PO Final now...

[Seasidesage]

But you've not added the 25% chance that we'd have from reaching the play offs in the first place, meaning that it's better to go for auto with the fall back of the play off semis if we fail.

True although there would not be a 25% chance as that doesn't allow for form, final position and therefore home advantages, not making them etc etc. We could even have a greater than 25% chance or of course a lesser one or none at all. Straight shoot out between two teams v a wide variety of possible outcomes including not making the play offs which is still possible I know which one I would take.

 

[Seasidesage]

Probability doesn't quite work like that.

Assume your probabilities are correct. Assume there are 100 possible outcomes. 25 are automatic promotion, then 75 are playoffs. We then have 1 in 4 of the playoff outcomes that get us promoted. So there are 25 + (75/4) = 43.75% chance of promotion. This is because finishing top 2 and qualifying for the playoffs are not independent events

The way to intuitively realise this is correct is to take Burnley's position. Assume they have an 80% chance of promotion, 20% chance of making playoffs. You wouldn't then add a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs, else they would have a total probability of being promoted of 80 + 25 = 105%! They actually have 80% + (20/4) = 85% chance.

So, I would go for the guaranteed playoff final.

PG

Somebody who know's what he is talking about explaining what I couldn't

 

[Mackenzie]

Yes.

 

[Megazone]

A play-off final isn't 50/50. It's all about recent form.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Probability doesn't quite work like that.

Assume your probabilities are correct. Assume there are 100 possible outcomes. 25 are automatic promotion, then 75 are playoffs. We then have 1 in 4 of the playoff outcomes that get us promoted. So there are 25 + (75/4) = 43.75% chance of promotion. This is because finishing top 2 and qualifying for the playoffs are not independent events

The way to intuitively realise this is correct is to take Burnley's position. Assume they have an 80% chance of promotion, 20% chance of making playoffs. You wouldn't then add a 25% chance of being promoted through the playoffs, else they would have a total probability of being promoted of 80 + 25 = 105%! They actually have 80% + (20/4) = 85% chance.

So, I would go for the guaranteed playoff final.

PG

Yes...

That's exactly why I said it was QUITE close, but you'd be daft NOT to take the (slightly better) chance offerdd by the 50% in the guaranteed play-off final.

 

[nwgull]

True although there would not be a 25% chance as that doesn't allow for form, final position and therefore home advantages, not making them etc etc. We could even have a greater than 25% chance or of course a lesser one or none at all. Straight shoot out between two teams v a wide variety of possible outcomes including not making the play offs which is still possible I know which one I would take.

My original calc was wrong anyway it's:

0.33 + 0.67x.25 = 49.75

So more or less the same as 50%

 

[highflyer]

I reckon as well as 25% chance of getting automatic, there would still be a 5% chance of dropping out of play-off places altogether

25 + (70/4) = 42.5%

play-off final looking better and better. Plus we get to go to Wembly. Yay.

 

[Hamilton]

All in for me too. Play off schmayoff.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

My original calc was wrong anyway it's:

0.33 + 0.67x.25 = 49.75

So more or less the same as 50%

Your original calculation was wrong regardless, because it assumes that a. there is ZERO chance of Burnley slipping up, and that b. there is ZERO chance of a team outside the current top four sneaking in.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I reckon as well as 25% chance of getting automatic, there would still be a 5% chance of dropping out of play-off places altogether

25 + (70/4) = 42.5%

play-off final looking better and better. Plus we get to go to Wembly. Yay.

True. Play-offs ALMOST nailed on, but not just yet.

 

[Triggaaar]

Would you take a place in the PO Final now...

Yes. We're currently 5/2 to get promoted. Being in the final we'd be close to evens, so yep, that sounds like a good deal.

 

[Peter Grummit]

My take on the actual chances are 20% automatic and 5% missing the playoffs, which suggests 38.75% chance of promotion. This broadly aligns with the best odds you can get (5/2).

Before the weekend, I only had us with a 10% chance automatic and 3% chance of missing playoffs, suggesting a 31.75% chance.

PG

PG

 

[KingstonSeagull]

Yeah go on then, would love a day at wembley. Cardiff is one of my greatest memories...

 

[sir albion]

Na thanks

 

[Triggaaar]

That's exactly why I said it was QUITE close, but you'd be daft NOT to take the (slightly better) chance offerdd by the 50% in the guaranteed play-off final.

It's not a slightly better chance, it's not quite close. We're 5/2 against getting promotion - that's not nearly evens.

 

[TheDuke]

Probability wise its quite close.

The play off final would represent an approx. 50% chance of success.

The alternative is ABOUT a 25% chance of top two as things stand, but with the fall-back of a further 25% chance of play-off success.


I'd take the guaranteed play-off final if that were offered. You'd be daft not to, I think.

Mister Kraay...spot on feller

 

[BensGrandad]

As others have said I would go for auto as we have the fallback for the play offs if that fails. Mind I think that we shall go to Middlesbro needing a point to ensure automatic a head of Hull in 3rd and Middlesbro established as 4th and in the play offs.

 

[Triggaaar]

Mister Kraay...spot on feller

Except that it's not. We aren't close to a 25% chance of top 2. You can get 15/2 with Betfair, so less than 12% chance.

 

[Sheebo]

On the whole, those saying yes will take setbacks much better than those saying no - they're more likely to be the toy throwers when we lose the odd game... Just an opinion

 

[kevo]

My take on the actual chances are 20% automatic and 5% missing the playoffs, which suggests 38.75% chance of promotion. This broadly aligns with the best odds you can get (5/2).

Before the weekend, I only had us with a 10% chance automatic and 3% chance of missing playoffs, suggesting a 31.75% chance.

PG

PG

Why has the chance of missing the play-offs increased? Cardiff won, Birmingham drew and Ipswich lost. IF Ipswich and Brum win their games in hand they'll be on the same points as Baaaadiff. The position in terms of making the play-offs really hasn't changed, if anything it's got slightly better (would have been worse if Ipswich had won - or Brum).