Who do you consider Brighton's biggest rival for second spot?

[hans kraay fan club]

Villa will suffer in January from the loss of Kodija and Ayew off to the African Cup, a bit like us losing Murray and Knockaert for a month.

Ghana have qualified too. Might Albert Adomah also be off?

 

[Giraffe]

Reading but only because of the massive points deficit that Villa have to overcome.

Villa are a better team but have too big a gap to narrow.

 

[mothy]

Newcastle - if we come top

 

[Triggaaar]

Regardless of Albion's final position, I'd be surprised if Reading were promoted automatically simply because they were so poor last season (17th). It would be an incredible turnaround. Compare that to ourselves who were desperately unlucky not to finish top 2

...after being so poor the previous season (20th)?

So on that basis, I don't see the long term threat coming from the plastics.

I don't particularly disagree, just not sure about your method

personally I still think the threat will come from Norwich. They are on a dreadful run of form, yet they still have more points than both Derby and Villa.

Is it really just a poor run of form? They're a mess, it's difficult to see them turn it round completely without changing manager, and they're only two points ahead of Villa.

I'm thinking the biggest threat is Villa or Derby.

 

[Triggaaar]

We are about to find out whether Reading are the real deal.

Indeed, and I think they're not. Check https://experimental361.com/2016/11/27/e-ratings-update-championship-26-nov-2016/

They have played all of the bottom half, bar Blackburn, and have played less of the top half than anyone. They are quite literally us from last season.

You flatter them / insult us.

 

[Ernest]

Ghana have qualified too. Might Albert Adomah also be off?

Like us losing Skalak or Murphy as well then

 

[Wardy's twin]

If I had to pick one it would be villa because of a) strength of squad b) their manager c) their resources d) Playing them away on last day of the season good be a 6 pointer , that said lets not write off our own title aspirations.

 

[beefypigeon]

I think we are better equipped to deal with the promotion push compared to all of the teams listed, purely due to our experience of getting so close last year.

Of the teams listed, only Norwich, Derby and Villa (and maybe Sheff Wed) have more strength in depth in the squad, but they all have a lot of ground to catch up. Each of these three are capable of going on long winning streaks, but Norwich are in disarray at the moment.

I see Reading very much like we were last year, I wouldn't be surprised if they last the distance.

So I think Reading, Villa and Derby will make up the top 5 with ourselves and Newcastle come the end of the season.

 

[Rugrat]

Indeed, and I think they're not. Check https://experimental361.com/2016/11/27/e-ratings-update-championship-26-nov-2016/

Interesting read that. Big downgrade for Reading based on number of penalties they've been awarded, 9 vs ave of 2.5. I think they'll fall away now they've got a tough schedule coming up so perhaps the gap to Brum might be more of an indication of where we are vs the pack .......... let's hope so anyway!

 

[Triggaaar]

If we remain in 2nd place our biggest rivals for that place will be the team in 3rd place.

So, currently, Reading.

 

[Audax]

I voted for the Super Rams in hope more than expectation - That said we're developing a bit of a winning habit, and nowhere near the levels of 2 years ago yet. If we can get George Thorne back maybe we can do something. The chronology of transfer window, Pearson sacked, return of the Mac certainly didn't help.

Is that the Rams being dealt with by the Albion in your sig?

Reading have played a lot of average teams recently (although I'm not suggesting that five wins is anything other than impressive). Let's see how they do when they have a run like we've just had:

Beat a side who only lost one game away (Fulham)
Drew with one of the form teams (Villa)
Comfortable away win against a very strong home side (Brizzle)
Slaughtered team in 2nd (Norwich)

They played Rotherham, Forest, Wigan, Burton and Bristol (who have gone off the boil with three defeats)

Relevant to look at for sure, but then a lot of folks were saying that about us last season at this point as well. In the end it was a run of injuries that set us back, and then we surged back to contention again once we cleared the dip. We're deep enough into the season now that (even with the 5 they still need to play) I think they've genuinely established themselves as one of the potential players. That could all change rapidly if their next 5 are poor, but equally they could continue their run. As it stands *right now*, though, they're third on the ladder and the stats suggest they deserve to be there.

Based my vote, and commentary, on one assumption: that we continue to hold consistent form through the rest of the season. That when we have a bad game, we salvage at least a point, and that when we're on song we take the 3. If we're staying on Newcastle's tail and keeping ourselves in the running for the second auto throughout the season, then teams like Villa, Derby, and Norwich have a *lot* of work to do to catch us. Whereas Reading, assuming they can keep their form, are already keeping us honest.

Having said that ... I'd love to see them fall away, as if my assumption holds true that will see us establish a nice buffer to 3rd.

 

[Triggaaar]

Just got to concentrate on ourselves, as CH said concentrating on the table will drive you mad!

Chris and the team need to concentrate on themselves and not the table. That's not us, we're allowed to look at everything else. They can't take their eye off the ball, we can, we're not playing.

 

[Triggaaar]

Interesting read that.

It is indeed. What it does is rate teams on how well they've played so far - what it doesn't seem to do is take into account how a team's performances have changed, either following a change in manager of players. I don't think those predictions would notice if a team suddenly lost their star player for a season through injury. It doesn't take account of the depth of the squad, their ability to cope when players do get injured. And it doesn't take into account a team that was under-performing, but now has a new manager and is on the up.

That doesn't mean it's useless, it's just another tool to help with predictions.

 

[Triggaaar]

Relevant to look at for sure, but then a lot of folks were saying that about us last season at this point as well.

I think they were wrong (and it was mostly Middlesbrough fans anyway). We'd beaten top of the table Ipswich, we'd drawn away at Burnley (should have won), and we were top of the table, not third.

We're deep enough into the season now that (even with the 5 they still need to play) I think they've genuinely established themselves as one of the potential players.

Agreed, they've obviously got something about them, and getting points doesn't just mean against the top teams anyway. But one of the potentials is perhaps all they are, not necessarily one of the favourites.

Based my vote, and commentary, on one assumption: that we continue to hold consistent form through the rest of the season. That when we have a bad game, we salvage at least a point, and that when we're on song we take the 3.

No offence, but if we do that, we'll definitely finish top two.

 

[Don Tmatter]

Derby for me. Strongest squad they've had in a while and McLaren has sorted them out now it seems.

Yes but being Derby & McLaren, they'll hit a bad spell and implode, hopefully around end of March/beginning of April

 

[KingstonSeagull]

Newcastle

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes but being Derby & McLaren, they'll hit a bad spell and implode, hopefully around end of March/beginning of April

Hopefully at the begging of March, when we play them.

 

[smeg]

I cab't bring myself to vote on this thread, it's way too presumptuous for me and I'll feel like i'm jinxing us a bit. My heart says going up as champions but my head says playoffs and disappointment.

 

[FatSuperman]

Breakdown of our next 5 and Reading's next 5. Showing the e-ratings from experimental 361, the current league position, and the predicted finishing position as per the bookie's pre-season. Red are promotion candidates and blue are relegation contenders (according to the model).

Interestingly (perhaps), Leeds, Cardiff and Birmingham are shown as out of place according to their underlying e-rating performances. Cardiff arguably should be harder than their League position would have us expect and Leeds & Birmingham should be easier.

 

[B.W.]

Too early to say...