Who do you consider Brighton's biggest rival for second spot?

[Geestar]

Newcastle

Sent from my SM-A510F using Tapatalk

 

[Triggaaar]

Too early to say...

 

[FatSuperman]

And the previous 5...

 

[FatSuperman]

They don't get it do they? Thread's like these keep the debate going and is part and parcel of the fun of the whole thing. I don't believe any fan if they say they aren't considering anything past the next game. It's always around halfway point that we start thinking seriously about who are the contenders and who are the also-rans.

Of course there is a long way to go yet, we all know that. It should go without saying frankly!

 

[Triggaaar]

They don't get it do they?

Can you imagine if they were football pundits at the start of the season:
"So, who's your tip for the title this year?"
"Too early to say"

 

[Rugrat]

They don't get it do they? Thread's like these keep the debate going and is part and parcel of the fun of the whole thing. I don't believe any fan if they say they aren't considering anything past the next game. It's always around halfway point that we start thinking seriously about who are the contenders and who are the also-rans.

Of course there is a long way to go yet, we all know that. It should go without saying frankly!

Very true ... and I get to roll this out after Xmas for which I will no doubt be vilified

Ignore the content btw ... work in progress

 

[FatSuperman]

[MENTION=18774]Rugrat[/MENTION] Ahhh love it. I looked at it many times last season! Shame aren't up there for the smiley. Maybe they'll catch up

 

[Rugrat]

[MENTION=18774]Rugrat[/MENTION] Ahhh love it. I looked at it many times last season! Shame aren't up there for the smiley. Maybe they'll catch up

Ha ... well I think both Wednesday and Derby will be there but not sure at the expense of who. Right now I'd go for Brum and Reading but it's a moving target which is the fun part.

Sod the miseries!

 

[Audax]

It is indeed. What it does is rate teams on how well they've played so far - what it doesn't seem to do is take into account how a team's performances have changed, either following a change in manager of players. I don't think those predictions would notice if a team suddenly lost their star player for a season through injury. It doesn't take account of the depth of the squad, their ability to cope when players do get injured. And it doesn't take into account a team that was under-performing, but now has a new manager and is on the up.

That doesn't mean it's useless, it's just another tool to help with predictions.

I suspect it's also prone to poor calculations when it comes to outliers. How well does it handle, for example, an otherwise poor offensive team playing against Norwich while they're so out of sorts defensively that anything that's on target seems to go into the net? Or how well does it handle teams that have that little something that means they can scrape points that the model says they shouldn't. If you look at the actual GD chart so far, there's two teams that stand out as doing great (us and Newcastle), and two teams that are poor (Cardiff, Rotherham). Everyone else falls into the range +6 to -7, and even one of the top 6 teams has a negative GD.

I wonder if where the model is struggling is the midfield. Looks like the model is entirely fed by chances created, and conversion rate of those chances. But what if a team finds itself constantly playing in the midfield - not creating many chances, but not allowing many - and how does the model account for that? I'm also a little wary of how they're handling penalties: by definition when a penalty is awarded that team has created a scoring opportunity. It's a relatively easy one to score from once the penalty is given. I just wonder whether the model is downplaying the value of the penalties a bit too much, and that this is causing Reading's rating to be suppressed; especially given the model is assuming that they won't continue to receive penalties at the same rate. That may or may not be a safe assumption - Reading may well have found a way of playing that's more likely to lead to them getting a penalty (either fairly or unfairly I couldn't say, I've not watched any of them), in which case the model should maybe actually be rewarding them for those pens rather than punishing. Food for thought there.

No offence, but if we do that, we'll definitely finish top two.

Agreed, which makes the entire conversation moot. But, in my defense, if we do continue on our current form that doesn't necessarily mean we're guaranteed first or second. Reading could still go on the worlds longest run of wins and pip us even if our second half of the season is identical to our first half (in terms of win/draw/loss). Much, much harder for Villa, Derby, Norwich to do that from their current points disadvantage. I might come back to that at half season and do a spreadsheet analysis...

 

[Triggaaar]

But, in my defense, if we do continue on our current form that doesn't necessarily mean we're guaranteed first or second.

If we continue our current form AND get at least a point when we have a bad game AND take the 3 when on song, I guarantee you that we'll finish top two.

 

[Audax]

If we continue our current form AND get at least a point when we have a bad game AND take the 3 when on song, I guarantee you that we'll finish top two.

Not guaranteed if Reading have a 100% win record and Newcastle also match their current results. Even if we convert those 2 losses into draws instead, that's still 4 points dropped and Reading are only 4 points back. Just one more draw (another two dropped), and a 100% winning Reading pips us. So yes, we can achieve everything I hope we achieve and still not get an auto. The odds are pretty jolly remote though, I'll give you that.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Not guaranteed if Reading have a 100% win record and Newcastle also match their current results. Even if we convert those 2 losses into draws instead, that's still 4 points dropped and Reading are only 4 points back. Just one more draw (another two dropped), and a 100% winning Reading pips us. So yes, we can achieve everything I hope we achieve and still not get an auto. The odds are pretty jolly remote though, I'll give you that.

To be fair, a 100% winning Rotherham may well pip us.

 

[Triggaaar]

Not guaranteed if Reading have a 100% win record

But I can guarantee you that Reading won't have a 100% win record.

Please be aware that to guarantee something will happen does not mean it's impossible for it not to happen. You seem to be saying that's it's mathematically possible we wouldn't finish top two, even under the conditions given. That's not relevant. Reading won't win every game.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

But you've gone for sheffield lol, and they're just 3 points ahead of Villa, with a worse goal difference, and they're on the way down while Villa are on the way up. Having watched Villa play recently, seeing the talented squad they have, and how their fortunes have changed since bringing in a new manager, I think it's easy to see why people think they're the main threat.

Good point. So really the answer can only be Reading.

 

[Triggaaar]

Good point. So really the answer can only be Reading.

I'm emailing Chris now.

 

[Audax]

But I can guarantee you that Reading won't have a 100% win record.

Please be aware that to guarantee something will happen does not mean it's impossible for it not to happen. You seem to be saying that's it's mathematically possible we wouldn't finish top two, even under the conditions given. That's not relevant. Reading won't win every game.

Selective quoting is a great way to win a discussion that wasn't even about winning...

Everything I said is relevant to my original post back where I indicated Reading are currently the biggest threat to us finishing top 2. I'm explaining my reasoning behind that, and I stand by it. It's all conjecture anyway - we all know that things can turn upside down in a hurry (just look at how many teams stole a 5+ point lead in the Championship last season, including us, only to squander it hitting a poor patch). Reading just strike me as being this seasons version of us last season. They're right up there, but being underestimated because they were poor last season and there's a feeling that they'll tank when they hit the "top" teams. I think that's risky. Villa, Norwich, and Derby are still potential threats that we'll need to watch out for (unless Norwich continue to fall away for a few more games). But Reading are the team that's right there keeping us honest as things stand right now.

To be fair, a 100% winning Rotherham may well pip us.

Not if we continue to perform to the same level we have so far, they can't. Which is the assumption I was working with: that Brighton's performance remains constant, with some slight improvements (ie the two losses are draws instead, and a couple of draws are wins instead).

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Reading may have had an easy run of wins but they can *only beat what is in front of them.*

I'll be happier to write them off after they lose a few rather than dismiss them now.

 

[Seagull Mags]

Reading may have had an easy run of wins but they can *only beat what is in front of them.*

I'll be happier to write them off after they lose a few rather than dismiss them now.

True - I am sure Newcastle had Blackburn down as an "easy game" can only beat who is in front of you, but we will certainly know more about Readings promotion credentials after the next 5 games!

 

[LlcoolJ]

Ha ... well I think both Wednesday and Derby will be there but not sure at the expense of who. Right now I'd go for Brum and Reading but it's a moving target which is the fun part.

Sod the miseries!

I love all this shit. Keep it up!

 

[LlcoolJ]

I'm willing to go out on a limb here and say that there's no way that Reading will be challenging for top two at the end of the season.

My only reasoning is that they are the most tinpot club in the division and therefore their inherent tinpotness will ensure that they balls things up Royally at some point. Hopefully hilariously like the 7th place pitch invasion.