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Trump



Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,658
The Trump people can tell themselves anything they like, he's going to lose the popular vote for a second time and this time he's not going to get out of jail with tiny majorities in places like Florida this time around. He's been totally exposed by his awful campaign which can only appeal to the same core he appealed to before but without the majority of swing voters who make their decision based on the current circumstances of the time. He's lost support from casual people as a result of his Dollar store performance in his term. If Coronavirus hadn't happened he probably would have swept to a second term but people can see how poorly he's handled the crisis and it's finally been the straw to break the back of that awful man.
 




stewart12

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2019
1,920
the two months or so in between the election and the inauguration will be absolutely MAD if trump loses

he's not going to go quietly is he
 


Mellor 3 Ward 4

Well-known member
Jul 27, 2004
10,233
saaf of the water
No...it won't be.
At this stage in 2016, Trump had 16% of the projected vote and was 11/2 against with the bookies. Hilary Clinton had 84% of the projected vote and was 1/5 on to win. Now, Trump is 2/1 against but narrowing ( a few days ago he was 9/4 ) and Biden is 1/2 on. Interestingly, more money has been waged on Trump than Biden ( £65m v £51m )
Expect Trump to keep narrowing the gap up to polling day. Its gonna be close.

He's behind in all of the battleground States he needs to win (well behind in some)

Trump won't win.
 








stewart12

Well-known member
Jan 16, 2019
1,920
How will you tell the difference between the current madness, and that madness?

ha, good point

but he's a narcissist- they tend not to cope well with rejection or their ego being damaged
 




nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
No...it won't be.
At this stage in 2016, Trump had 16% of the projected vote and was 11/2 against with the bookies. Hilary Clinton had 84% of the projected vote and was 1/5 on to win. Now, Trump is 2/1 against but narrowing ( a few days ago he was 9/4 ) and Biden is 1/2 on. Interestingly, more money has been waged on Trump than Biden ( £65m v £51m )
Expect Trump to keep narrowing the gap up to polling day. Its gonna be close.

At this stage in 2016, the average of the polling companies gave Clinton a lead of about 5% in the popular vote, and Trump was getting low 40s.
 




Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,274
Withdean area
The Trump people can tell themselves anything they like, he's going to lose the popular vote for a second time and this time he's not going to get out of jail with tiny majorities in places like Florida this time around. He's been totally exposed by his awful campaign which can only appeal to the same core he appealed to before but without the majority of swing voters who make their decision based on the current circumstances of the time. He's lost support from casual people as a result of his Dollar store performance in his term. If Coronavirus hadn't happened he probably would have swept to a second term but people can see how poorly he's handled the crisis and it's finally been the straw to break the back of that awful man.

Not forgetting “Republicans against Trump”.

He’s so nasty, even some conservatives have ditched their normal partizan principles.
 








Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,468
Brighton
The situation isn’t similar to 2016, going on all reliable metrics.

Biden is going to win. He might win quite bigly.
 




Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,658
I think Trump will resign, to allow Pence a few months as president in order to pardon the entire administration for crimes committed in office.
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
32,468
Brighton
I think Trump will resign, to allow Pence a few months as president in order to pardon the entire administration for crimes committed in office.

Won’t cover State crimes. SDNY are waiting for him.
 


nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
The situation isn’t similar to 2016, going on all reliable metrics.

Biden is going to win. He might win quite bigly.

In a fair fight I would agree: Biden will win this. However, when you factor in the fact that Trump will try every dirty trick in the book to suppress or discount votes in blue areas, it does add a bit of uncertainty. Hopefully the large turnout of early votes is a good indicator of the overall picture.
 




CHAPPERS

DISCO SPENG
Jul 5, 2003
45,092
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/california-gop-drop-boxes.html

The California Republican Party has admitted responsibility for placing more than 50 deceptively labeled “official” drop boxes for mail-in ballots in Los Angeles, Fresno and Orange Counties — an action that state officials said was illegal and could lead to voter fraud.

The dark gray metal boxes have been popping up over the past two weeks near churches, gun shops and Republican Party offices, mostly in conservative areas of a deep-blue state, affixed with a white paper label identifying them as either an “Official Ballot Drop off Box” or a “Ballot Drop Box.”

To the average voter, they are virtually indistinguishable from drop-off sites sanctioned by the state, which are governed by strict regulations intended to prevent the partisan manipulation of ballots.
 




highflyer

Well-known member
Jan 21, 2016
2,553
In a fair fight I would agree: Biden will win this. However, when you factor in the fact that Trump will try every dirty trick in the book to suppress or discount votes in blue areas, it does add a bit of uncertainty. Hopefully the large turnout of early votes is a good indicator of the overall picture.

Yup. Given the polls, there is no way he'd still be getting the betting odds he is (2/1?) if people were assuming it was going to all run 'free and fair' from here. The betting looks like it is based on a fairly widespread expectation he won't fight clean.

I'm guessing he'll be given little choice but to go. If not quietly, at least fairly quickly. I'm hoping Florida goes Democrat with a clear majority, as that would make it very difficult for him to claim victory early with anything approaching credibility, even in the eyes of his supporters. Florida goes blue, and it's game over.
 


Fungus

Well-known member
NSC Patron
May 21, 2004
7,155
Truro
I think Trump will resign, to allow Pence a few months as president in order to pardon the entire administration for crimes committed in office.

Can he be pardoned for crimes he hasn't yet been charged with? Wouldn't the prosecutors just wait until he's out of office?
 


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