[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

[dsr-burnley]

Read an interesting article that pointed out the tories lost more votes to the Lib Dem’s than reform. However i feel that the right of the party will win the internal battle and thus for the next election cycle they will remain wholly unelectable.
Remember labour after Brown’s defeat, lurched left with the wrong milliband and then went even further left with Corbyn before realising being in opposition is a bit crap.

That article was false. (I know this post was a good while ago, but I hate bogus statistics.) The Lib Dem vote went up by 0.6%, the Reform vote went up by 12% (compared with Brexit Party last time).

If three quarters of the LibDem vote went elsewhere and if the Lib Dems made no gains from tactical voting, then it would be theoretically possible. But only theoretically.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

they continue to support pointless EU rules such as the one that makes it illegal for a vet to prescribe medicines that are used on humans if the same product is licensed for animals

Do you mean not licensed for animals?

 

[WATFORD zero]

That article was false. (I know this post was a good while ago, but I hate bogus statistics.) The Lib Dem vote went up by 0.6%, the Reform vote went up by 12% (compared with Brexit Party last time).

If three quarters of the LibDem vote went elsewhere and if the Lib Dems made no gains from tactical voting, then it would be theoretically possible. But only theoretically.

That 'last time' will be where Farage's Brexit party withdrew most of their candidates, but the Reform vote was actually only 1.4% up on Nigel Farage's UKIP party in 2015, where he didn't

Lies, damn lies and statistics

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Read an interesting article that pointed out the tories lost more votes to the Lib Dem’s than reform. However i feel that the right of the party will win the internal battle and thus for the next election cycle they will remain wholly unelectable.
Remember labour after Brown’s defeat, lurched left with the wrong milliband and then went even further left with Corbyn before realising being in opposition is a bit crap.

I can’t really see any way forward for the Tories at the moment. Move further to the right to encourage Reform voters back and they will alienate their more centrist voters to Lib Dem and Labour as well as lose a lot of their “city” donors which will not want to be associated with such a toxic rabble. Move towards the central ground and more will leave to Reform, splitting their vote.

I presumed the party would have taken a breather and had an existential discussion to reconsider what it exactly stands for…..but they’re ploughing on with a new leader who will most likely be chosen from the cabinet which did so much damage over the past 14 years and which the country has already voted on.

TL DR Tories are f***ed.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I can’t really see any way forward for the Tories at the moment. Move further to the right to encourage Reform voters back and they will alienate their more centrist voters to Lib Dem and Labour as well as lose a lot of their “city” donors which will not want to be associated with such a toxic rabble. Move towards the central ground and more will leave to Reform, splitting their vote.

I presumed the party would have taken a breather and had an existential discussion to reconsider what it exactly stands for…..but they’re ploughing on with a new leader who will most likely be chosen from the cabinet which did so much damage over the past 14 years and who the country has already voted on.

TL DR Tories are f***ed.

Yes, all of this. It seems the party has been taken over by those who were left standing after Johnson cleared out all the Brexit-skeptic centrists.

Those too stupid to realize they are digging in tainted earth
And those too venal to care what claptrap they spout as long as it gets them elected.

Totally f***ed.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yes, all of this. It seems the party has been taken over by those who were left standing after Johnson cleared out all the Brexit-skeptic centrists.

Those to stupid to realize they are digging in tainted earth
And those too venal to care what claptrap they spout as long as it gets them elected.

Totally f***ed.

There’s no way back for them over the next two terms.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I don't see how the Tories can move further to the left. They are already in favour of higher taxes than any Labour government has ever dared (though that record won't last long) and higher immigration than any Labour government has ever dared (that record may stand for a while, though probably not.) The spend more on the NHS and on welfare than any previous government, they continue to support pointless EU rules such as the one that makes it illegal for a vet to prescribe medicines that are used on humans if the same product is licensed for animals, they continue to support red tape and quangos. I don't see that adapting even more Labour policies will help.

You seem to be confusing the reality of government with aspirational policies and beliefs.
Of course the Tories believe in low taxes and immigration numbers. But any sensible politician will assess the state of the world economy etc and cut their cloth accordingly.

For the two to meet when the conditions are not favourable, or in other words, when some of the richest investors (who love money more than you love Burnley) are liable to fly off in a panic like a flock of pigeons if you start cutting tax for the very richest, you need one of the most out of touch, bizarre, inane and fantasist MPs to have ever existed to become PM and to pull it off. I’m sure Liz Truss will happily give you a hand with that!

 

[Iggle Piggle]

There’s no way back for them over the next two terms.

I wouldn't be so confident. Public service needs to be rebuilt and there is no money to do it. Sooner or later that narrative will be turned against Labour. Spend the money and it'll be "The party of high taxes" don't and it's "Look at this shitshow" Everyone wants improved services but no one wants to pay for them.

If the Tories can do something about Reform it'll be all to play for in 5 years. I'd be very surprised if KS had any kind of popularity in 2/3 years time as everything he has to do will largely be unpopular. With no easy way to turbo charge the economy it's a very tough gig.

 

[WATFORD zero]

From the moment 'Call me Dave' decided he had a brilliant idea to cover up the cracks in the party, it has been a suicide note for the Conservative party in weekly episodes. Even at the actual referendum, less than half of Tory MPs backed Brexit, and they were the only significant group that did.

May tried to hold it together for a bit before Johnson came bumbling in, got rid of the sensible half of the party, appointed a completely inexperienced and useless (but pro-Brexit) cabinet from what was left, and engaged in Cumming's infamous 'narcissistic orgy'. That same bunch of incompetents then re-arranged themselves under two more useless Prime Ministers for the next three years to bring us to here.

I really can't see any group within the party currently that could get them back to any sort of sensible position, particularly as the results of their last five years 'Governing Britain' become clearer day on day.

And that really isn't good for democracy

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I wouldn't be so confident. Public service needs to be rebuilt and there is no money to do it. Sooner or later that narrative will be turned against Labour. Spend the money and it'll be "The party of high taxes" don't and it's "Look at this shitshow" Everyone wants improved services but no one wants to pay for them.

If the Tories can do something about Reform it'll be all to play for in 5 years. I'd be very surprised if KS had any kind of popularity in 2/3 years time as everything he has to do will largely be unpopular. With no easy way to turbo charge the economy it's a very tough gig.

It’s a huge majority, and I believe those who rejected the Tories did so with their eyes open. I don’t agree Starmer will have pretty much zero popularity in 2/3 years time.

What do you think the Tories can do about Reform then? This particular genie is now well and truly out of the bottle now.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

There’s no way back for them over the next two terms.

I hope you're right. I'm hoping for quiet, even dull times ahead, governmentally.

(I'll probably give opposition politics a swerve for a bit, given the absolute spasms of pure Trumpery we can expect from the Farage gang and its effect in triggering the Tory residue into aping them, with 'we-can-try-a-bit-of-that' thinking.

This will all all be clear if they start describing Starmer as an "extreme left wing" slave of the EU, or some-such.)

 

[CheeseRolls]

Labour will make plenty of mistakes, given the size of the challenge and will also come under constant media pressure as always. The tories if they can reform as a more centerist and outward looking group could easily win the next election. I just don't see who can lead them in this direction. The obsession with the European Court of Human Rights just keeps echoing the inward looking ideology of a dying party. I think perhaps Clerverly gets this, but I very much doubt he has the personality or intellect to capture public support.

 

[amexer]

Look how media said Labour were finished after Blair election. It will take at least 2 terms for them to be taken seriously again. On basis of what has gone on in last 5 years Labour will practicaly be beyond any criticism in first term.. After that up to them because oppositions dont win elections Governments lose them. Just hope they have a 2nd term free of things like Brexit and Covid to deal with and hopefully Russian situation has got better and not worse.

 

[Bodian]

Labour will make plenty of mistakes, given the size of the challenge and will also come under constant media pressure as always. The tories if they can reform as a more centerist and outward looking group could easily win the next election. I just don't see who can lead them in this direction. The obsession with the European Court of Human Rights just keeps echoing the inward looking ideology of a dying party. I think perhaps Clerverly gets this, but I very much doubt he has the personality or intellect to capture public support.

And those two sentences sum it up really.

They could win the next election, if they changed - but there's no-one who will change them enough to enable them to do so.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

And those two sentences sum it up really.

They could win the next election, if they changed - but there's no-one who will change them enough to enable them to do so.

Indeed, and if my old mum had had a cock and balls (you can guess the rest).

It is odd. The Tories always styled themselves as the pragmatic party of 'natural' government. Perhaps it is the product of the Johnson purges that has resulted in an apparent damaged phenotype.

The understandable (but pathetic, in a non-pejorative sense) straw-clutching of the old middle ground Tories on here is testament to the malaise. I would suggest these sorts need to mobilize and take over their party, not keep looking at Labour and getting excited every time Labour do something that cannot be traced back directly to a line in their manifesto.

There will be no Tory come back if their core sensible supporters don't grasp the nettle - and change the party. It can be done. Look how Starmer has managed it with his shower (as they were when Corbyn was squatting over the piece). He did it almost without anyone noticing.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

It’s a huge majority, and I believe those who rejected the Tories did so with their eyes open. I don’t agree Starmer will have pretty much zero popularity in 2/3 years time.

What do you think the Tories can do about Reform then? This particular genie is now well and truly out of the bottle now.

Huge majority in seats I'd agree but only 34% of the vote compared to 44% in 1997. I don't think it's a cast iron foundation and we tend to forget about the SNP implosion as well which gifted Labour Scotland. Well see how popular Labour is mid term (and I hope I'm wrong) but they can't really borrow much and taxes are mega high as it is. Where does the money come from? Someone's going to be upset and ill bet its not Amazon.

The Tories could kill Reform overnight if they bought Farage into the camp and made him Shadow Home Secretary.

 

[happypig]

The next Tory leader isn't likely to be PM; it'll probably be the next but one (maybe next but two) and they all know that. The next Tory PM might not even be an MP yet.
Those with ambition, and relative youth, will be eying up the leadership after the next election. Of the current crop I could see maybe Dowden, Coutinho, Philp but it's a very shallow talent pool they have to pick from.

Which is nice...

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The Tories could kill Reform overnight if they bought Farage into the camp and made him Shadow Home Secretary.

Which will never happen in a million years. Realistically, how do you think the Tories will deal with Reform at the next election?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Huge majority in seats I'd agree but only 34% of the vote compared to 44% in 1997. I don't think it's a cast iron foundation and we tend to forget about the SNP implosion as well which gifted Labour Scotland. Well see how popular Labour is mid term (and I hope I'm wrong) but they can't really borrow much and taxes are mega high as it is. Where does the money come from? Someone's going to be upset and ill bet its not Amazon.

The Tories could kill Reform overnight if they bought Farage into the camp and made him Shadow Home Secretary.

I don't think @Herr Tubthumper is saying anything of the sort.

(And there has never been a government that made itself 'cast iron' - only oppositions that made themselves cast out.)

The point (and I agree with it) is it does not look as if the Tories are in a fit state to realize they are not in a fit state to sort themselves out.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I don't think @Herr Tubthumper is saying anything of the sort.

(And there has never been a government that made itself 'cast iron' - only oppositions that made themselves cast out.)

The point (and I agree with it) is it does not look as if the Tories are in a fit state to realize they are not in a fit state to sort themselves out.

Quite. This thread is about the Tories and their supporters and what they both do next. I struggle to see a way forward for the reasons I have given.

Another idea I have is that as people now know Reform is a realistic option, they might get more votes and seats next time….further splitting the Tory vote.