[Politics] Tory voters- where do you go from here?

[A1X]

Let’s be brutally honest, from today it only gets slowly better for the Tories, equally as of today it will slowly get worse for the Labour Party.

Not necessarily, look at Labour 1979 to 1983…

 

[Rookie]

In terms of the overall vote and how little a % of the country voted things could be very different in 5 years. If the conservatives get a semi electable leader and perform well in opposition (far from guaranteed!) the next election could be an interesting one.
Seems a general apathy towards labour / Starmer so wouldn’t be surprised if they only last 1 term as the majority.

 

[fly high]

Not necessarily, look at Labour 1979 to 1983…

Really don't think they have the same quality plus, at the time, Blair was popular where people don't seem very keen on Starmer, his main positive is he's not Tory.

 

[heathgate]

Interesting as a similar question was asked about Labour on that Friday in December 2019, 5 years is a long time in Politics and no one could have predicted last night all those years ago

Whilst yesterday Labour only increased its vote share by 1.6%.... yet gained 211 seats.. ( 95% increase)... as I said in the last two elections when seeing the disproportionate SNP votes Vs seats equation... something needs to change.... ( Not partisan observation)

 

[birthofanorange]

Let’s be brutally honest, from today it only gets slowly better for the Tories, equally as of today it will slowly get worse for the Labour Party.

That's probably the most sensible thing that I've ever seen you post.
Is it the results, today, which gave you such clarity?

 

[alanfp]

the Labour Party did their best to appeal to the more right of centre voters, not those on the left.

VAT on private school fees, taxes more likely on savings (the promise not to tax 'working people'), giving votes to schoolchildren, no commitment not to tax the state pension, no plan to discourage illegal immigrants.
I don't think that was "appealing to the right of centre voters".

 

[Flounce]

Before gloating too much let’s see how the Toolmaker’s son does?

He deserves a go, I accept, but he does not fill me with confidence. Time will tell

 

[chickens]

Sane and not a racist? - Liberal Democrats

Bitter disenfranchised racist? - Reform

If someone could turn this into a flowchart and pin it to the top I’d be much obliged.

 

[The Grockle]

Keir Starmer's government will spend the next 4 yesrs blaming the tories for the mess they left without much changing.The tories will regroup and look to appeal to the traditional right, focusing on immigration while appointing a shaddow cabinet of traditionalist, socially conservative high tories and win back a few million Reform voters.

The tories will be bruised but the country is very divided and after a term of centre left politics they'll be 10 million voters clambering for a return to the right. Politics has become very presidential, with charismatic leader they'll win by a landslide

 

[A1X]

Really don't think they have the same quality plus, at the time, Blair was popular where people don't seem very keen on Starmer, his main positive is he's not Tory.

Blair wasn’t Labour leader in 1979.

 

[Eeyore]

Is it down to the lake I fear?

Damn, I knew someone would get there before me.

 

[Sorrel]

VAT on private school fees, taxes more likely on savings (the promise not to tax 'working people'), giving votes to schoolchildren, no commitment not to tax the state pension, no plan to discourage illegal immigrants.
I don't think that was "appealing to the right of centre voters".

They promised things that appealed to both sides, of course, but in the final days Starmer was saying “we’ll won’t rejoin the EU in my lifetime” and similar things designed to reassure voters in non-city-centre constituencies - not to fire up his core voters.

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

The Tories and Reform will unite as the Reformatory Party and Farage will be PM in 2029. (that’s what he thinks)

 

[Weststander]

Damn, I knew someone would get there before me.

I rushed to post it before @El Presidente .

 

[Eeyore]

correct- and Labour lost a lot of votes both to the left and towards the right in 2019, having been caught between a rock and a hard place. A lot of parallels with last night really just on the other side of the spectrum

In response Labour had two options really, going with a fairly left leaning leader again like Rebecca Long-Bailey or moving to the centre with Starmer

Except that:

2019 Labour: 10,269,051 (32.1%)
2023 Labour: 9,712,011 (33.8%)

Labour really haven't moved much. In fact less turned out for them. Which brings me to my point.

Reform won this election for Labour. And, for what my uninformed opinion is worth, it means we will see a merger of views between them and the Tories. The eye will be on the 2029 election and there only being a handful of Refrom MPs makes no odds. The Tories will have the fact that Reform are second in around 100 seats in mind. And, more importantly, they wooed their hardcore.

So I give you- Suella Braverman who will be chomping at the bit for the chance. A person of colour with right wing views. The perfect candidate. The darling of the haters.

No more wishy washy centre ground. The media will be on board, the culture war explodes. Labour was to be the end of it. Wrong, it's the start.

JRM was asked about Farage early this morning. Would the Tory party join with Reform ? He batted off the question and instead of 'Mr Farage' it was 'Nigel'. That was enough for me. The Tories didn't attack him personally in the campaign, they just (rightly) said a vote for him was a vote for Labour. But now they need him. Or, perhaps, need to become like him. Or he will destroy them.

Red wall example of my point:

The combined Reform and Conservative vote is 50%.

 

[Eeyore]

The 2019 election was an outlier, in the sense that it was really a single issue election.

Everyone was sick of Brexit negotiations. Johnson came in hammering home "Get Brexit Done!"

Labour were busy dillydallying and infighting and didn't present any coherent vision.

The wishy washy stance on Brexit was what did for them, and why Starmer is still now so petrified to say that Brexit has gone badly. But to be fair to him, he has managed to secure the vote from both working class leave voters and metropolitan remainders and that's no mean feat.

Remain got the working class leavers and Labour already had the metropolitan remainers.

Remember, Labour's vote went up by only 2% yet the Tories dropped by 20%

 

[zefarelly]

Let’s be brutally honest, from today it only gets slowly better for the Tories, equally as of today it will slowly get worse for the Labour Party.

I've been thinking exactly the opposite. . . .

SKS may not come accross as a charismatic chancer/crook, which is clearly what many warm to. This is the first prime minister in my lifetime who's actually a decent intelligent talented human being, with an exemplary career record.

As opposed to a career politician, the vast majority of whom, in recent decades, have been shown up to be weapons grade shysters. That's as polite as I can be about the last 14 years. And to a lesser extent 40 years.

We now have a Chancellor who is qualified to do the job ( imagine that. . . . An 'expert' )

I expect the opposing press will be making shit up and scaremongering already

£2000!!!!

 

[Stato]

Late to this. Opened the thread, hoping for the open goal to be tucked away. First post! Top marks @Weststander .

NSC can be relied upon to hold the ring in a changing world.

 

[Surrey Phil]

Congrats KS (yawn)! Can we now focus on the Albion and upcoming tour and new season!

 

[portslade seagull]

It depends on how Reform work out over the next 5yrs. A fair few could go back to the Tory fold if they implode