[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Brian Fantana]

it's very much changing isn't it. I do think that the divide isn't as clear cut as class. Our major cities have some of the most deprived areas in the country with large working class populations but are almost exclusively voting Labour, whereas smaller, (historically) working class towns with ageing populations have voted blue- and towns that surround cities (historically hardcore conservative) are seeing a move towards labour/lib dems and greens as young people begin to move from the city to the neighbouring towns due to cost

appears to me that the bigger divide in this country is by age than anything else

Age certainly comes into it - no doubt. The other factor is visibility. Johnson has been far more visible on the campaign trail in the North East (both in this election and the last GE) than Starmer/Corbyn were. I'm not sure if previously that was because these areas were so safe for Labour that it didn't warrant regular visits, but it is certainly something that is remarked upon. A final factor I'd reference specifically for Teesside/surrounding areas has been the popularity and success of the Tory metro mayor, Ben Houchen. He's into his second term and he's been absolutely brilliant for the local area in terms of jobs and investment secured,.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Not so sure it is.

If found innocent, Starmer is on a winner, if it’s found he has a case to answer and he is fined, he then resigns , as a man of principal, and as he said he would, piling huge pressure on Johnson.

The only way I can see a downside for the Labour Party, is if Starmer refused to resign.

Under this scenario, Boris would be bricking it if Rayner then took leadership. From what I've seen, she rattles him more than Starmer does.

Johnson can't handle strong women. He likes them biddable and doing as they're told.


[tweet]1522573567724068865[/tweet]

From the same tweeter -

1/2 Any re-investigation must commence with a review of the original investigation. That will require all of the policy decisions of the original Senior Investigating Officer (SIO) being scrutinised by the Review Officer (also an SIO). If there are concerns about the conduct of

2/2 the original investigation. The Force will have to consider whether there could have been misconduct committed by the original SIO. If so they should refer the matter to the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC).

 

[Jim in the West]

it's very much changing isn't it. I do think that the divide isn't as clear cut as class. Our major cities have some of the most deprived areas in the country with large working class populations but are almost exclusively voting Labour, whereas smaller, (historically) working class towns with ageing populations have voted blue- and towns that surround cities (historically hardcore conservative) are seeing a move towards labour/lib dems and greens as young people begin to move from the city to the neighbouring towns due to cost

appears to me that the bigger divide in this country is by age than anything else

Yes, age is a big factor (as is education)....the thing I find odd about the Oldies who vote Tory is generally they really need the services that the Tories trash (the NHS, BBC, social care, public transport, etc). It seems that the over-65s are quite happy to vote against their own interests. Again, I'm baffled...

 

[Audax]

Given the usual mid-term kicking that incumbent parties usually get, coupled with the absolute cluster**** that has been the government, I think Labour will probably be fairly disappointed with their performance. Results in the north and midlands would suggest that the Brexit issue is still coming into force at the ballot box. In my own area (Hartlepool pretty much), the Tories have gained councillors and are closer to the overall control of the council. Chatting to a few people in the pub last night, the issue of partygate etc hasn't really resonated up here. I appreciate this is wholly anecdotal, but from my discussions with friends and work colleagues up here, Starmer is less liked than Johnson.

Disagree. What these results are actually showing:

- Support for Labour in the former "red wall" areas is recovering. Not all the way there yet, but definitely on the up again. Any losses have been small, and the Conservatives have struggled to pick anything much up - the odd seat here and there, but nothing significant IMO. For Labour to be close to matching the 2018 results in those red wall seats, when in 2019 their vote collapsed, is a "win" in my mind.

- Meanwhile, elsewhere, Labour have taken a handful of councils away from the Conservatives that even in 2018 held firm against a strong Labour result.

- Labour vote up in Scotland, Conservative vote down (and a long way down in some places).

- Some strong vote share improvements for Lab in the SE. This is Conservative heartland, for them to be losing seats and even councils in this area is a good sign for Labour.

- And ... Lib Dem vote share up in areas that are strong Con and weak Lab. That's positive for Lab if replicated at a GE.

To be honest, I think Labour might be looking at this as a strong result. Not a headline-producing smashing of the Tories, sure, but this is still a much stronger showing than 2019. In fact, it's been reported as their strongest LE result since 2012.

 

[Audax]

Rayner is also caught up in the same investigation, I think.

IIRC, later in the evening - so would depend a lot on the specifics. If Rayner was only there during a purely work portion of the evening, she'll be in the clear to run for leader.

 

[stewart12]

Yes, age is a big factor (as is education)....the thing I find odd about the Oldies who vote Tory is generally they really need the services that the Tories trash (the NHS, BBC, social care, public transport, etc). It seems that the over-65s are quite happy to vote against their own interests. Again, I'm baffled...

quite

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Talking of historic elections

[tweet]1522467317422206976[/tweet]

 

[Medwayseagull]

Worthing a Labour gain.

When I was young, and they used to weigh the Tory votes here, this is a day I never thought I would see.

Not only a gain but a clearcut win. Also starting to filter into Adur as well with a couple of gains and close run contests.

 

[BBassic]

Worthing turning Red means this is the first time in my voting life that something I voted for actually came to pass.

I'm going to have a celebratory pizza.

 

[Bozza]

Worthing a Labour gain.

When I was young, and they used to weigh the Tory votes here, this is a day I never thought I would see.

It's been a fascinating watch and listen, largely care of [MENTION=2223]e77[/MENTION], who has been working hard on the campaign trails for Labour in and around Worthing for a number of years now.

 

[Bodian]

I've done a search for Tory gains and the only one (up to now) is in Amber Valley (East Derbyshire) They gained two seats (so not exactly a Labour or LibDem stronghold)

[tweet]1522584269188706305[/tweet]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-61343125

What - you mean our Prime Minister might not be telling the truth?? I can't believe that.....

 

[Papa Lazarou]

It's been a fascinating watch and listen, largely care of [MENTION=2223]e77[/MENTION], who has been working hard on the campaign trails for Labour in and around Worthing for a number of years now.

Being a mutual friend of [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] and [MENTION=2223]e77[/MENTION] I've met a few of the local labour people (as a Lib Dem member) and they're all decent people. It will be interesting to see how they change Worthing and also how the Adur & Worthing relationship develops across the divide.

 

[Bozza]

Being a mutual friend of [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] and [MENTION=2223]e77[/MENTION] I've met a few of the local labour people (as a Lib Dem member) and they're all decent people. It will be interesting to see how they change Worthing and also how the Adur & Worthing relationship develops across the divide.

I do wonder how many people were protesting at the absolute cluster**** of the bin collections over the last couple of months. It cetainly won't have done the Tory chances any good at all as a lot of people were seriously pissed off with it and an immediate outlet to vent their frustrations.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1522592762041933824[/tweet]

 

[Barnet Seagull]

The demographics of voting are interesting in terms of education and age.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election

I wonder if a portion of this change is a natural evolution based on the above.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Talking of historic elections

[tweet]1522467317422206976[/tweet]

It's worth noting that NI have a SFV method of voting so not the final results yet.

 

[Bodian]

Only 18 Conservative Councillors in Cumbria's two new unitaries. Out of 111.

There were 37 out of 84 county councillors previously.

 

[TomandJerry]

Tory MP Roger Gale says he no longer thinks Ukraine war reason not to remove Johnson



Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Bodian]

300 councillors down now.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1522575060267147264[/tweet]