[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[KZNSeagull]

Perhaps, but I struggle to believe in 2016-19 Hull would have voted en masse for the (then) pro-Remain Lib Dems. In any context.

And if national politics doesn't matter, what is the value of voting for UKIP / Brexit Party (the ultimate single-issue parties) at a local level, as many did in 2018 and 2019? Unless they expected to see their local council area removed from the EU unilaterally.

Ultimately there is no point voting for single national issue parties in local elections unless it is to register a protest, which is fine if people want to do that. Doesn't make that person a competent local councillor which is what they are actually voting for. Hence my point, local votes rarely end up being reflected in the next GE and parties need to be careful not to read too much into LE results, particularly when there are low turnouts.

 

[Seagull27]

It's certainly not what Labour might have been hoping, but it would be unwise of the Tories to take comfort from that - if I were them I'd be very concerned about the loss of their more traditional voters to the Lib Dems. And you'd expect that if those results extrapolated into a GE which ended up with a hung parliament, LD would almost certainly not go into coalition with the Tories this time.

 

[Audax]

Something else for Boris to think about:

The Tories held on to the Hillingdon council, but the reality is they took a battering from Labour there. Enough of a battering, I'd suggest, that he may find his own seat in jeopardy at a GE if that swing is given time to move even more towards Labour.

On the surface, it's a safe Tory seat (Boris won with over 50% in 2019). But with a big swing towards Labour in the area, it doesn't take much to see a scenario where he loses. It would be a great seat for the Lib Dems and Greens to not contest and allow Labour a free run at de-seating Boris.

 

[Bodian]

Interesting. London aside, disappointing for Labour?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61347764

However, the loss of support for the Conservatives did not simply translate into Labour advance. A one-point advance in Labour's vote share in London was accompanied by a three-point fall in the north of England. Indeed, across England as a whole, Labour failed to advance in wards where it faced competition from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Although Labour have recorded a four-point improvement on what was a poor performance in last year's local elections, the party has not recorded the kind of consistent advance that demonstrates that it has now reached new levels of popularity.

The 33 net gains of seats it has registered so far (all of them in London) is a consequence of the decline in Conservative support rather than any electoral advance by Labour themselves since the seats were last fought in 2018, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.

In fact, the Conservative decline has thus far helped the Liberal Democrats more than Labour. Coupled with the modest two point increase in Lib Dem support since 2018, the party has so far enjoyed a net gain of 58 seats and gained control of Kingston-upon-Hull from Labour.

And this is the trouble with our two-party dominated FPTP system. Maybe Labour haven't 'gained' a huge amount - but the big picture (which will be obscured by the media) is that the Tories have lost a lot. One-in-five of sitting councillors gone. That's quite a big drop.

The fact that this vote has been dispersed around the other parties is and therefore not bringing about headline changes, is, I think, a reflection of our need for a better system - more PR basically.

 

[zefarelly]

[tweet]1522532074422521856[/tweet]

Landslide

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Landslide

In one ward!

Funnily enough, the LibDems are doing very well, which is strange because they are the only party (apart from Green) who are very pro EU.

 

[KZNSeagull]

In one ward!

Funnily enough, the LibDems are doing very well, which is strange because they are the only party (apart from Green) who are very pro EU.

Not strange at all. People can happily vote for their local councillor no matter what their or their parties views are on any national issues safe in the knowledge that all they are affecting is local services and not national policy. A vote for your local Lib Dem councillor is not a vote to rejoin the EU, nor is a vote for a Labour councillor a vote for KS for PM nor a vote for a Tory councillor an endorsement of the government no matter how everyone tries to spin it.

 

[Stato]

Interesting. London aside, disappointing for Labour?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61347764

However, the loss of support for the Conservatives did not simply translate into Labour advance. A one-point advance in Labour's vote share in London was accompanied by a three-point fall in the north of England. Indeed, across England as a whole, Labour failed to advance in wards where it faced competition from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Although Labour have recorded a four-point improvement on what was a poor performance in last year's local elections, the party has not recorded the kind of consistent advance that demonstrates that it has now reached new levels of popularity.

The 33 net gains of seats it has registered so far (all of them in London) is a consequence of the decline in Conservative support rather than any electoral advance by Labour themselves since the seats were last fought in 2018, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.

In fact, the Conservative decline has thus far helped the Liberal Democrats more than Labour. Coupled with the modest two point increase in Lib Dem support since 2018, the party has so far enjoyed a net gain of 58 seats and gained control of Kingston-upon-Hull from Labour.

There will definitely be a bit of tactical voting going on and disillusioned tories moving to the LDs rather than straight across to Labour. Labour are in the same position on the national stage that the tories were a couple of years after 1997. Hopefully the terrible performance of the government following the 2019 landslide might mean that recovery time could be shorter, but for Labour to go from where they were in 2019 to a positon where they could win a majority at the next election would be completely unprecedented in UK politics.

At this stage it's a massive ask for Labour to be in a position to get a majority. The best hope is that honest actors can replace Johnson's band of anti democratic lying ideologues. This can be a coalition or even a Conservative government that has reigned in the power of the right wing fringe that was released by the Pandora's Box that was Brexit.

 

[Bodian]

Pretty safe to say that the new Westmorland & Furness council won't be going to the Tories.

65 councillors altogether - 37 results so far

LD - 19
LAB - 12
CON - 6

 

[Jim in the West]

In one ward!

Funnily enough, the LibDems are doing very well, which is strange because they are the only party (apart from Green) who are very pro EU.

Libdems had a huge victory in the North Shropshire by-election, despite North Shropshire being very pro-Brexit.

 

[Bodian]

49.85% turnout in my ward - pretty impressive for local elections.

 

[TomandJerry]

Maybe I should start a Labour meltdown thread:

Durham Police are investigating whether Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke lockdown rules on a visit last year during which he drank beer in an MP's office.

The force initially concluded that no offence had occurred on 30 April, but said it had since received "significant new information".

It added that it had delayed announcing the investigation until after Thursday's local elections.



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[Soton Seagull]

Police confirm Starmer investigation reopened. This is gold for the Daily Mail and other Johnson apologists.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

If he gets fined and given his previous statements, Starmer will have no option but to resign if he is fined.

 

[lawros left foot]

Police confirm Starmer investigation reopened. This is gold for the Daily Mail and other Johnson apologists.

Not so sure it is.

If found innocent, Starmer is on a winner, if it’s found he has a case to answer and he is fined, he then resigns , as a man of principal, and as he said he would, piling huge pressure on Johnson.

The only way I can see a downside for the Labour Party, is if Starmer refused to resign.

 

[Bodian]

They've been pressurised by the government into re-opening the investigation. Doesn't mean the findings will be any different.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Well we can rely on the Durham police to do a good job. It was them that found there was no case to answer for Cummings tour of Britain wasn't it ?

 

[lawros left foot]

Worthing a Labour gain.

When I was young, and they used to weigh the Tory votes here, this is a day I never thought I would see.

 

[TomandJerry]

With more than 700 of the BBC's key wards now declared, we are estimating what would happen if the whole country had been voting in local elections on Thursday.

The outcome across Britain as a whole would have been:

Conservative 30%
Labour 35%
Liberal Democrat 19%
Others 16%
What this means

At 35%, Labour's estimate simply matches that for the party in 2018, which was Jeremy Corbyn's best set of local elections.

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[Thunder Bolt]

Maybe I should start a Labour meltdown thread:

Durham Police are investigating whether Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke lockdown rules on a visit last year during which he drank beer in an MP's office.

The force initially concluded that no offence had occurred on 30 April, but said it had since received "significant new information".

It added that it had delayed announcing the investigation until after Thursday's local elections.



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Police confirm Starmer investigation reopened. This is gold for the Daily Mail and other Johnson apologists.

The police have been asked to look again at their investigation. Whilst they're at it, they can check this.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-celebrated-beer-indoors-26838978



The Met police also announced they wouldn't reveal who had received further fines because of Thursday's elections because of unfairly influencing voters.