[Albion] To Avoid De Zerbi Bashing - The Staying Up/Europe Tracker - season 2022-23 FINAL Update - 22 OVER

[Official Old Man]

Is it only me who is slightly concerned about getting into Europe? I look at similar teams who did qualify like West Ham, Leicester, Wolves, and think the extra games would affect injuries, fatigue etc. Teams apart from the big 6 who have a lot of quality in depth, seem to fade away quickly once they’ve played in the European competitions.

Ask anyone who was at Hereford or, like me, done Lincoln City in the 70's if we'd like Europe before we are incapable of getting on a plane. Sorry for being greedy but I want to do 'that trip' and don't care where it is, as long as it's not Scotland!

 

[jakarta]

Having European trips didn't do Burnley much good from memory...

 

[Motogull]

Having European trips didn't do Burnley much good from memory...

Yeah but RDZ is a bit more clued up on European football than the ginger dalek.

 

[A1X]

Having European trips didn't do Burnley much good from memory...

Yes but they're already pre-programmed to react badly to foreigners turning up so they were at a disadvantage

 

[The Optimist]

It’s even more bonkers than that.. first half of the season we almost doubled the “expected” points - 31 against 16. Second half of the season, we’re “expecting“ 24 - if we also double that, we could be nearer 80 points.

(If my sums are right, of course!)

Leicester dropped 2 expected points today, and they were already bottom of the tracker! (See post 319)

The only problem is that’s it’s harder to out perform the tracker when it’s predicting more points.

In our remaining 19 games the tracker has us down to win 6 games, we have to win those just to keep up and then that leaves us with 13 games to try to out perform the tracker.

In our first 19 games the tracker had us down to win 4 games, so we had 15 opportunities to outperform it.

 

[Fungus]

The only problem is that’s it’s harder to out perform the tracker when it’s predicting more points.

In our remaining 19 games the tracker has us down to win 6 games, we have to win those just to keep up and then that leaves us with 13 games to try to out perform the tracker.

In our first 19 games the tracker had us down to win 4 games, so we had 15 opportunities to outperform it.

True, we’d have to out-perform Arsenal’s start to the season! I’ll be happy with 70.

 

[BrianSwan]

He's brilliant. As soon as Pep leaves Man City, they'll come knocking.

Knutsen next?

 

[Giraffe]

Update of the league table sees us comfortably in the Champions League.

A sentence I never thought I'd say!

 

[zefarelly]

Yes but they're already pre-programmed to react badly to foreigners turning up so they were at a disadvantage

That was just those from Manchester down.

 

[dazzer6666]

 

[Seagull on the Hill]

The only problem is that’s it’s harder to out perform the tracker when it’s predicting more points.

In our remaining 19 games the tracker has us down to win 6 games, we have to win those just to keep up and then that leaves us with 13 games to try to out perform the tracker.

In our first 19 games the tracker had us down to win 4 games, so we had 15 opportunities to outperform it.

I thought you were an optimist!

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

When was the last time our tracker was negative?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Update of the league table sees us comfortably in the Champions League.

A sentence I never thought I'd say!

View attachment 156088

Newcastle is interesting, have they just had a relatively easy set of fixtures?

 

[Official Old Man]

EUROPE
Not sure whether we should have a more accurate European tracker. Points isn't necessarily the guarantee of any Euro place. It could be 7th or 5th, who knows.
To sum up-
Top 4 straight into the Champions League group stages.
5th is the Europa League group stage.
FA Cup winner is Europa League group stage.
League Cup winner goes into the play-offs of the Conference League.
So that is our 7 teams in Europe.
BUT
If the FA Cup winners are top 5 then 6th place gets a Europa League group stage place. If not us winning the cup, then a top 5 team. 4 clubs could go in to the 5th round but that includes Liverpool & Spurs, two clubs we should aim to be above anyway.
If the EFL Cup winners are top 5 then 6th (or 7th if FA Cup winners in top 5) goes into the Conference play-offs. Newcastle v Man Utd final would almost certainly add 1 more place in the league to Europe.
CONFERENCE
Here's those dreaded play-off dates though. It all kicks off on the 13th July with games every week.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

EUROPE
Not sure whether we should have a more accurate European tracker. Points isn't necessarily the guarantee of any Euro place. It could be 7th or 5th, who knows.
To sum up-
Top 4 straight into the Champions League group stages.
5th is the Europa League group stage.
FA Cup winner is Europa League group stage.
League Cup winner goes into the play-offs of the Conference League.
So that is our 7 teams in Europe.
BUT
If the FA Cup winners are top 5 then 6th place gets a Europa League group stage place. If not us winning the cup, then a top 5 team. 4 clubs could go in to the 5th round but that includes Liverpool & Spurs, two clubs we should aim to be above anyway.
If the EFL Cup winners are top 5 then 6th (or 7th if FA Cup winners in top 5) goes into the Conference play-offs. Newcastle v Man Utd final would almost certainly add 1 more place in the league to Europe.
CONFERENCE
Here's those dreaded play-off dates though. It all kicks off on the 13th July with games every week.

I'm all for a jaunt in Europe, it'd be epic.

If it helps my very rudimentary analysis says:

We have 31 points after 19 games. If we do the same again we'll end the season on 62.

Over the past 10 seasons:

the team in fifth finished with 62 points or less once.

the team in 6th finished with 62 points or less three times

the team in 7th finished with 62 points or less nine times.

So we are on course for a points total that will most likely leave us in 7th and the Europa conference league. Provided saints or forest don't go and win the league cup.

That's pretty exciting!

 

[kjgood]

I just want five more points to keep us up.

 

[Napper]

I'd love Europe , it would be the ultimate watching Us in Europe with Albion fans taking over pubs in a foreign country. Don't think it could ever be topped.

My god will it cost some money though as I'd have to do all of them

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Having European trips didn't do Burnley much good from memory...

They finished 15th that season, which I'd suggest is roughly where most people would have expected them to finish.

 

[Giraffe]

When was the last time our tracker was negative?

Hard to believe but it was actually after game 30 last season! That fantastic end to the season came at just the right time. Lucky we stuck with Potter throughout the bad spell. I'm sure that faith will be repaid by him soon...

 

[Official Old Man]

So we are on course for a points total that will most likely leave us in 7th and the Europa conference league. Provided saints or forest don't go and win the league cup.

That's pretty exciting!

Plus a top 5 team have to win the FA Cup for 7th to apply and, as it stands, that needs to be Man City/Arsenal (one leaving next week), Spurs (one of our target teams), Man Utd (don't think they'll fade) or, should the unthinkable happen, Liverpool, although they too are a target team to be above.
I've a feeling a team outside the top may win the cup so 6th should be the target.