To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP

[Machiavelli]

ALL the others? How likely are all seven teams to get an unexpected win?
Your whole thread is based on 40 points being safety, and it won't be that high this season.

Oh, I agree. This thread has been a useful companion throughout the season, but it's become worthless in the last month or two, as it's become obvious that the survival points total will be in line with its long-term average of 36-37 or, more likely, lower than that.

 

[Giraffe]

I look at it as a guide to how difficult the remaining games are. The very useful post of how the other teams are fairing at this point as well also highlights this.

Newcastle 2
Palace 2
West Ham -2
Albion -3
Swansea -5
Huddersfield -5
Stoke -5
Southampton -10
WBA -17

Without this you could overrate Saints chances of staying up?

The 40 point level was always just a guide and we know most seasons the total has been lower, however it has been a good measure of where we have been throughout the season.

 

[Biscuit]

Which has every possibility of happening... we won't lose 6 in a row

Why did you have to type that?! WHY?!!!

 

[Bold Seagull]

Stoke 27:
West Ham A
Burnley H
Liverpool A
Palace H
Swansea A

Southampton 28:
Chelsea H
Leicester A
Bournemouth H
Everton A
Swansea A
Man City H

Palace 31:
Brighton H
Watford A
Leicester H
Stoke A
West Brom H

Huddersfield 32:
Watford H
Everton H
Man City A
Chelsea A
Arsenal H

Swansea 32:
Everton H
Man City A
Chelsea H
Bournemouth A
Southampton H
Stoke H

West Ham 34:
Stoke H
Arsenal A
Man City H
Leicester A
Man Utd H
Everton H

Brighton 35:
Palace A
Spurs H
Burnley A
Man Utd H
Man City A
Liverpool A

Watford 37:
Huddersfield A
Palace H
Spurs A
Newcastle H
Man Utd A

Cannot see us not picking up a point or 2 from 6 games, and likewise cannot see Stoke and Southampton picking up 7 or 9. Swansea have a tough run of games now, and should they pick up the points they need, it may well be crucially against Stoke and Southampton. I think we'll pick up a point or two in our next 3; avoiding defeat on Saturday would be a HUGE result for us.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

Worry is that chelsea have completely downed tools for the season. Manager leaving in the summer and no chance of CL. Can see saints getting something against them.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Why did you have to type that?! WHY?!!!

Because under Chris Hughton's management in 3.4 years, we've never gone more than three losses in a row.

 

[happypig]

My projections show 35 points being enough this season.
I've also run a model with every team being "lucky" and "very lucky" in their run-in by winning 1 or 2 games they would otherwise be predicted to lose and "unlucky" by losing a game they should win (or dropping 3 more points in the case of West Brom & Stoke who I don't see winning any more).
The only model I have run that sees us in a relegation scrap is if Southampton are very lucky and we are unlucky.
So, in my view, we are 99% safe already.
We are, though, Brighton, and don't do the predictable thing.

 

[Biscuit]

Because under Chris Hughton's management in 3.4 years, we've never gone more than three losses in a row.

I was joking.

I don't like tempting fate!

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I was joking.

I don't like tempting fate!

That's just superstition.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Worry is that chelsea have completely downed tools for the season. Manager leaving in the summer and no chance of CL. Can see saints getting something against them.

If you're suggesting they down tools and start dropping points at Southampton, then it is conceivable both Arsenal and Burnley could catch them and they lose their Europa League spot if they don't win the FA Cup final which would be far from certain.

With Burnley on 4 wins on the spin already, and to face Chelsea at home as well as other winnable fixtures, Chelsea could face the real possibility of missing out on Europe altogether next season.

So in short, I can't see them losing their professionalism completely, they'll want to put a marker down ahead of their semi-final with Southampton too.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

If you're suggesting they down tools and start dropping points at Southampton, then it is conceivable both Arsenal and Burnley could catch them and they lose their Europa League spot if they don't win the FA Cup final which would be far from certain.

With Burnley on 4 wins on the spin already, and to face Chelsea at home as well as other winnable fixtures, Chelsea could face the real possibility of missing out on Europe altogether next season.

So in short, I can't see them losing their professionalism completely, they'll want to put a marker down ahead of their semi-final with Southampton too.

7th will get Europe this season, there is no way they drop that far.

 

[Giraffe]

If you're suggesting they down tools and start dropping points at Southampton, then it is conceivable both Arsenal and Burnley could catch them and they lose their Europa League spot if they don't win the FA Cup final which would be far from certain.

With Burnley on 4 wins on the spin already, and to face Chelsea at home as well as other winnable fixtures, Chelsea could face the real possibility of missing out on Europe altogether next season.

So in short, I can't see them losing their professionalism completely, they'll want to put a marker down ahead of their semi-final with Southampton too.

Chelsea will be in the Europa, that is nailed on, and actually I doubt their players care that much about that. It's champions league or nothing for them. I therefore think it is a valid point that games against them and Arsenal are possibly easier than games against those two earlier in the season.

 

[Bold Seagull]

7th will get Europe this season, there is no way they drop that far.

If Southampton win the FA Cup, 7th won't get into Europe.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

If Southampton win the FA Cup, 7th won't get into Europe.

So you think they might win the FA Cup (Chelsea then either Spurs or Man U) but are doubtful of them picking up points at home to Chelsea in the league....?

 

[knocky1]

Not much sign of top teams going on holiday for the last 6 weeks last year.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=p...UTF-8#sie=lg;/g/11c3yptrz5;2;/m/02_tc;mt;fp;1

 

[Bold Seagull]

So you think they might win the FA Cup (Chelsea then either Spurs or Man U) but are doubtful of them picking up points at home to Chelsea in the league....?

No I doubt that they'll pick up points at home or win the FA Cup, but how much do you think they should leave to chance and down tools already?

Point being Chelsea and Arsenal have to look at the Europa League as an avenue to Champions League football the following season, as do all the top 6 if they end up in that competition. If Chelsea, Spurs or MU win the FA cup, then 6th will qualify automatically, 7th will be in Europa League qualifiers. Right now Chelsea are in danger of slipping from 5th, and may well have Burnley breathing down their necks if they lose a couple.

Anyway, we'll see shortly enough whether Chelsea turn up at St Mary's or not.

 

[Giraffe]

Not much sign of top teams going on holiday for the last 6 weeks last year.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=p...UTF-8#sie=lg;/g/11c3yptrz5;2;/m/02_tc;mt;fp;1

Weren't they all fighting for fourth spot in the Champions League though?

 

[knocky1]

Weren't they all fighting for fourth spot in the Champions League though?

My taxi's here. good point. Chelsea and Tottenham could have eased up though.

Professional pride and gaining £2 millionish for each place up the table may come into it a little tiny bit or maybe not.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

It's Chelsea specifically I'm worried about. Their form over last couple of months has been relegation form. They've done it before with Mourinho, there a core of players there that just stop playing and it feels like that's happened.

 

[Giraffe]

My taxi's here. good point. Chelsea and Tottenham could have eased up though.

Professional pride and gaining £2 millionish for each place up the table may come into it a little tiny bit or maybe not.

I don't think Premier League players have much professional pride and they certainly don't care less whether their owner gets another few million pounds or not.