Yes - I see. What I basically did was look at the games left. When two team below us played each other I gave them each 1.33 points, nothing against the big boys, and one point against those above us but not a big boy. Ended up with Stoke and West Ham on 33 points and West Brom further back. Meaning we're already safe. But I might have got my maths wrong!
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Yes - I see. What I basically did was look at the games left. When two team below us played each other I gave them each 1.33 points, nothing against the big boys, and one point against those above us but not a big boy. Ended up with Stoke and West Ham on 33 points and West Brom further back. Meaning we're already safe. But I might have got my maths wrong!
Saladpack Seagull
Just Shut Up and Paddle
My old maths teacher said if I passed my O-Level he'd appeal against it ! Therefore I bow to your mathematical ability and pray to God you're right!
I'm sure Trigaaar will be along sometime to tell us!!
Understood.
Sorry to disappoint.
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Machiavelli
Well-known member
While them playing each other limits the total they can get, it also creates a minimum they'll get - they can't all lose all their games. When they play each other they'll get an average of 1.33 points per game each*. When they play Stoke they'll get more. When they play West Brom they'll get an average of 3 points
* Explanation if needed:
When our rivals play each other, if they draw 1 in 3 games, the two teams will get a total of 2 points in that game, and a total of 3 points in each of the other two games - so a total of 8 points over the 3 games. That's an average of 1.33 each per game.
This is a dreadful calculation. You've based it on the fact that of three fixtures, there will be two clear results, and one draw. That might be the case, but you might also get: two draws and one clear result; three clear results; and, three draws.
And I really can't be arsed if you disagree with this, and dissect my analysis
Whoopsie.
That's why it's called an average
When us relegation candidates play the top teams we get an average of 0.5 points per game. It's a notable difference and useful when trying to predict the final table.Have I gone too far for you with the word 'average'?And I really can't be arsed if you disagree with this, and dissect my analysis
Machiavelli
Well-known member
That's why it's called an average
Have I gone too far for you with the word 'average'?
No, you haven't, although average can be interpreted in various ways, such as mean or median. Your calculation is incomplete, as I've demonstrated. You're also mixing up the logic of the number of potential points received in any fixture, and those that certain teams have achieved this season.
Which of those are you willing to concede?
Official Old Man
Uckfield Seagull
So the PDF doesn't work. Ignore this.View attachment 2017 run.pdf
Last edited:
You got me interested, so I just spent too much of my lunch break working it out.
In the case of the possible number of points that could come out of any given set of 3 football games we get a set of 7 potential outcomes. The Median points per game, per team, works out to 1.33. The average is actually slightly lower, at 1.29.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I also think there are seven potential outcomes, and thanks for doing that calculation, which is beyond me.
WilburySeagull
New member
Its a long time since my o level maths but memory says the median has to be one of the actual possible results (ie in this case a whole number) which lies in the middle of the series of possible results.
Balls ... wrote up a full reply to this and lost it because of an attack of stupid (hit the wrong button).
TL;DR though: You're correct, but what I left out in my previous post is that the median I listed is for a set of values that is not whole numbers. It's instead the derived points-per-game-per-team values for each permutation of results that I've taken a median for. Max value = 1.5 (twice), min value 1.0 (once), with intermediary values of 1.33 and 1.17 (twice each). Note that if the min value (1.0) was in the set twice, the median and the mean would be identical. It's the fact that min only occurs once, while the max occurs twice, that creates the offset.
The longer portion of my lost post was going off on one looking at some basic analysis of how competitive this season has, or hasn't, been. It's interesting that only 8 teams are at, or above, the expected median total points score after 30 games (40). Same applies for teams above the expected average. This season so far has a higher average points accumulated (41) than would be expected from a perfectly even set of results, while the median is actually significantly lower (at 35).
That'll be the Man City effect, who've scored more than 2x the expected median. West Brom are exactly 0.5x expected.
Bold Seagull
strong and stable with me, or...
and I thought I was a nerd...
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Thanks again for this. I'm following you (I think/hope), and you're using the correct terminology, so you seem to be on to something.
Related to this, does anyone know the number of draws in the PL this season, in comparison to other seasons because, as you suggest and is quite obvious, a high number of draws will reduce the overall/combined points total in the league, and this ought to also have the knock-on effect of reducing the survival points required total.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
and I thought I was a nerd...
You are, but at least you can display self-awareness. Nerdity, by its nature, is displayed across a range of topics though.
D
Deleted member 2719
Guest
1 down now, come on lads lets get over that line starting with 3 point against Huddersfield.