Thanks for that but what I was hoping for was a table showing the position of the relegated teams after 38/39 games with their final points totals. Could also include the points at the cutoff point.
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Thanks for that but what I was hoping for was a table showing the position of the relegated teams after 38/39 games with their final points totals. Could also include the points at the cutoff point.
Stato
Well-known member
- Dec 21, 2011
- 7,367
I've had a look at comparisons between team's average points over the season and what they may need to do to ensure survival. I've followed the logic of 40 points to guarantee survival. The top 7 already have 40 points. This gives an indication of what level each team has to perform at in their last nine. Worked out by looking at the points per game they would need to reach 40 and compared with current average points per game.
In their last 9 games to get to 40 points:
West Brom need to pick up points at a better rate than Man Utd have over the season;
Stoke need form better than Burnley's has been over the season;
Palace and Southampton both need to be better than Leicester have been;
Newcastle Huddersfield and West Ham need to be better than Swansea have been;
Swansea need to be better than they have been, but don't quite need to reach the standards of Bournemouth;
Bournemouth need to play better than West Brom have over the season
Everton and Brighton can be slightly worse than West Brom have been over the season;
Watford can be significantly worse than West Brom have been;
& Leicester can be half as good as West Brom have been.
In truth everyone above the bottom three really just has to carry on being better than the bottom three, but I thought it gives an interesting comparison of what we would all need if everyone performed to the maximum.
In their last 9 games to get to 40 points:
West Brom need to pick up points at a better rate than Man Utd have over the season;
Stoke need form better than Burnley's has been over the season;
Palace and Southampton both need to be better than Leicester have been;
Newcastle Huddersfield and West Ham need to be better than Swansea have been;
Swansea need to be better than they have been, but don't quite need to reach the standards of Bournemouth;
Bournemouth need to play better than West Brom have over the season
Everton and Brighton can be slightly worse than West Brom have been over the season;
Watford can be significantly worse than West Brom have been;
& Leicester can be half as good as West Brom have been.
In truth everyone above the bottom three really just has to carry on being better than the bottom three, but I thought it gives an interesting comparison of what we would all need if everyone performed to the maximum.
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
I get that entirely! Trouble with all the other analyses is that they omit the impact of two fundamentals: a) how many games left against top 6 (OK so Arsenal may not count as a top team but leave them in as we beat them ); b) how many games against each other.
Lots of justifiable positivity around NSC following Sunday but we do have to play all top 4 and really need to make at safe by Selhurst.
James Bond's body double
Well-known member
Really think we will be, can see us gaining something from Everton, we have the beating of Leicester & Huddersfield at home that's at least 7 points. Think we should only fear, City & Liverpool away.
warmleyseagull
Well-known member
They only play 38 games! Positions after 38 (i.e. end of season) were Birmingham 18th 39 pts, Blackpool 19th 39 pts; West Ham 20th 33pts. Messages from this: 1) 40 points could be needed this season; 2) a point a game might not be enough for Swansea downwards; 3) current position is not a reliable indicator of relegation possibility; 4) despite 3) it is unlikely that a team above Swansea will be relegated.
Sorry, I meant 28/29 games
Yoda
English & European
I don't think Everton will be easy. They might be abysmal away from home and losing those games but they are winning at Goodison.
Need to target those home games against Leicester & Huddersfield as well as Palace & Burnley away as the most winnable.
Bold Seagull
strong and stable with me, or...
Tough game at Everton, of course it won't be easy, but we are right on top of game at the moment, can go there with real confidence.
I think other than perhaps Liverpool and Man City away, we've got a great chance for points in all the others.
forumwayseagull
Well-known member
exactly my thoughts now. Feel like we can have a real go now at teams and collect points where earlier in the season we did not have the PL know how/confidence/creativity to obtain..
Horton's halftime iceberg
Blooming Marvellous
What a thoroughly brilliant afternoon.
Three massive bonus points, and we are ahead of par for the first time since 2nd December.
First three point bonus. Only one (West Brom) below par performance in eleven games.
Its all looking rather good isn't it!
Still 2 points ahead, need that home win now v Hudderfield or Leicester
- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,221
- Thread starter
- #571
Definitely no need to panic. Anyone who thought a win at Goodison was likely is insane. The expected defeat has come and we are still two points ahead of the tracker.
Still only one sub par performance in the last 12 games. The next three league games are clearly critical.
A nice cup break coming up though. For what it is worth I fancy us to cause an upset. Dunk 1-0, get on it
Still only one sub par performance in the last 12 games. The next three league games are clearly critical.
A nice cup break coming up though. For what it is worth I fancy us to cause an upset. Dunk 1-0, get on it
Attachments
If we'd been offered three points from Arsenal and Everton, we'd have taken that, right?
Disappointing but West Brom felt a lot worse than this IMHO.
Disappointing but West Brom felt a lot worse than this IMHO.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
We may already be safe - and we just don't know it yet.
1 more win though will make it pretty much certain - and hopefully we can get it against Leicester or Huddersfield.
1 more win though will make it pretty much certain - and hopefully we can get it against Leicester or Huddersfield.
Weststander
Well-known member
Agree with this.
Effectively 7 points clear, and many of the teams below us have quite a few games against each other, limiting the overall points available.
While them playing each other limits the total they can get, it also creates a minimum they'll get - they can't all lose all their games. When they play each other they'll get an average of 1.33 points per game each*. When they play Stoke they'll get more. When they play West Brom they'll get an average of 3 points
* Explanation if needed:
When our rivals play each other, if they draw 1 in 3 games, the two teams will get a total of 2 points in that game, and a total of 3 points in each of the other two games - so a total of 8 points over the 3 games. That's an average of 1.33 each per game.
While them playing each other limits the total they can get, it also creates a minimum they'll get - they can't all lose all their games. When they play each other they'll get an average of 1.33 points per game each*. When they play Stoke they'll get more. When they play West Brom they'll get an average of 3 points
* Explanation if needed:
When our rivals play each other, if they draw 1 in 3 games, the two teams will get a total of 2 points in that game, and a total of 3 points in each of the other two games - so a total of 8 points over the 3 games. That's an average of 1.33 each per game.
Giving 1.3 points to each team below us when they're playing each other (and us), and 3 points if they're playing West Brom makes us safe already! I think the 1.33 average only works out over the whole season really. I was working on the home team always getting 3 points in these matches. In which case we'll be safe when we beat Huddersfield.
How does that work? And you can't give those points to us, we're talking about how many points our rivals will get when they play each other, not how many we get gifted. We might lose against our rivals, they can't all lose when they play each other.
No, it'll work when they play each other. They can't play each other and come out with less than 2 points between them, and they'll more often have 3 between them.
If you work on the basis of us winning games, yes, we'll be safe.
Weststander
Well-known member
Definitely no need to panic. Anyone who thought a win at Goodison was likely is insane. The expected defeat has come and we are still two points ahead of the tracker.
Still only one sub par performance in the last 12 games. The next three league games are clearly critical.
A nice cup break coming up though. For what it is worth I fancy us to cause an upset. Dunk 1-0, get on it
Looking good, but even better than that, as IMO the team finishing 17th will finish with less than 40.