The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[5ways]

So what's the minimum number of economic experts necessary for their opinion to be taken as gospel? It's clearly higher than 15 and you have it lower than or equal to 76.

But what about all the other experts who also supported us joining the Euro? They provided their expert opinion too and that's got to count for something. There was Europe 21, a group of business leaders who were firmly in favour of the Euro. Obviously experts in their field. They got it wrong. And then the CBI. A huge organisation crammed full of business leaders, all experts in their field. They got it wrong. And then there's all the politicians, Conservative Mainstream, Labour Movement for Europe and the entire Lib Dems each one numbering in their thousands and in amongst that and especially at Parliamentary level some world-leading experts. They all got it wrong too.

Literally hundreds and hundreds of experts got it wrong over the Euro.

You're engaging in a logical fallacy here. Firstly tu quoque - answering criticism with criticism. You cannot contest the bulk of mainstream economic opinion so you criticise it without actually denying the claim - that Brexit is damaging both in the short and medium-term.

Secondly you assume that because some people got it wrong about the Euro they will be wrong about this, and therefore cannot be trusted. Firstly I find it highly unlikely that there was such uniformity on the Euro question as there is on the Brexit one. I haven't checked the bios of all 100 economists. But by saying that 'hundreds' of experts were wrong before means they will be wrong about a different issue, at a different time, with a different set of circumstances, is frankly ludicrous.

If the Bank of England, broad economic opinion, politicians, EU partners, business leaders, friends and allies around the world say it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck.

 

[5ways]

On 6th June 2001, 15 top economists wrote to the FT urging Britain to join the Euro. Amongst those signatories was a Professor Peter Spencer. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1371736.stm

Now, fast forward to 2016 and guess whose name pops up in that list of 76 urging the UK to stay in the EU? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz458heII5G

There's probably others but I can't find the list of 15 signatories. This bloke is one of the top economists in the UK and he got the Euro spectacularly wrong. Forgive my cynicism but I'm going to take any expert advice from top economists with a pinch of salt.

By the time you've had that many pinches of salt you may have a health condition and need to seek treatment from the NHS. Fortunately some of the 100,000 EU health workers working for the NHS are on hand to assist you. Moreover you can be safe in the knowledge that inside the EU the UK's economic stability is secure which will protect the NHS from further budget cuts.

 

[Buzzer]

You're engaging in a logical fallacy here. Firstly tu quoque - answering criticism with criticism. You cannot contest the bulk of mainstream economic opinion so you criticise it without actually denying the claim - that Brexit is damaging both in the short and medium-term.

Secondly you assume that because some people got it wrong about the Euro they will be wrong about this, and therefore cannot be trusted. Firstly I find it highly unlikely that there was such uniformity on the Euro question as there is on the Brexit one. I haven't checked the bios of all 100 economists. But by saying that 'hundreds' of experts were wrong before means they will be wrong about a different issue, at a different time, with a different set of circumstances, is frankly ludicrous..

I've not said anything of the sort. On the contrary, you making a big deal about them being top economists and the FT being a leading paper and therefore it's overwhelmingly obvious they must be right. My point about saying hundreds of experts got it wrong about the Euro is that might is not always right. Experts are not always right.

If we're playing word games here, I could argue that you are saying that despite lots of experts being wrong in the past, you're asking us to ignore that and really trust them this time. They're definitely right because 76 out of a hundred are of the same opinion. It's apparently ridiculous to be sceptical.

 

[Buzzer]

By the time you've had that many pinches of salt you may have a health condition.

Ouch. My sides.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

By the time you've had that many pinches of salt you may have a health condition and need to seek treatment from the NHS. Fortunately some of the 100,000 EU health workers working for the NHS are on hand to assist you. Moreover you can be safe in the knowledge that inside the EU the UK's economic stability is secure which will protect the NHS from further budget cuts.

Hang on, we only need the extra staff because our government hasn't bothered to train our own people, and more people are using the service because of things like immigration in the first place, secondly I know you haven't said it, but I get sick and tired of hearing that migrants have saved our NHS, it was my mum, dad and grandparents who paid in to the system years before through their own taxes that have provided the facilities we see today, which has allowed people from all over the world to get free treatment in decent facilities, something they wouldn't get in their own countries. Let's have a bit of respect to the older generation who made this country great, which has been sadly ripped apart.

 

[GT49er]

Moreover you can be safe in the knowledge that inside the EU the UK's economic stability is secure which will protect the NHS from further budget cuts.

Laughable to think the EU will somehow protect the NHS from the tories. Any economic stability will only be used to cut taxes for their richest chums.

 

[5ways]

Hang on, we only need the extra staff because our government hasn't bothered to train our own people, and more people are using the service because of things like immigration in the first place, secondly I know you haven't said it, but I get sick and tired of hearing that migrants have saved our NHS, it was my mum, dad and grandparents who paid in to the system years before through their own taxes that have provided the facilities today, which has allowed people from all over the world to get free treatment in decent facilities. Let's have a bit of respect to the older generation who made this country great, which has been sadly ripped apart.

Of course it was a previous generation that paid into the NHS to create the foundation that exists today. But it is also true that the UK is able to attract top medical talent, inside the NHS and in our universities and our large pharmaceutical corporations because we are an open and outward-looking country. At another level the ability to attract labour into the NHS, cleaners, food preparation, lab work etc is thanks to the ability to draw from a wide pool of EU workers. This increased competition reduces costs and therefore reduces the financial burden on the NHS.

Moreover demand on the NHS is increasing principally because so many people are getting towards retirement age. It is worth mentioning again that migrants pay more in tax than they take from the system. That means more money for hospitals.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

That's an axymoron. If they supported the Euro, they can't be top economists.

I guess that was meant to be a joke but I'm not clever enough to know what one of them is.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

We've rather shifted from my original point, which was that to state that it's a debate with no professional consensus is not true. You can disparage the worth of those views, but it's undeniable that there is at least a broad agreement amongst the profession.

On the Euro question; I have no idea how many of those surveyed wanted to join the Euro (and I've not been able to find a comparable survey, although one may exist). With hindsight the right decision looks to have been made, for very good evidence-based reasons. Even amongst economists that may have supported it at the time, I doubt that many wanted entry "at any cost".

My professional and personal view is that there are a number of solid arguments for voting for Brexit, but that the economic impact isn't one of them. Those trying to argue that Brexit will not incur any medium-term costs to the economy are simply wrong, and those arguing that the long-term economic benefits are greater than the medium-term costs are on pretty shaky ground (but a case can be made). I'm confident saying that my take on the balance of probabilities is that there will be a net economic cost to leaving the EU.

This brings us back to the negative campaign that both sides have run. The Brexit campaign (IMHO) should be that the benefits of leaving, in terms of regained sovereignty, reduced immigration, public sector finances retained, outweigh the costs, and the Remain campaign should be that the benefits of staying, in terms of trade volumes and jobs are greater than the costs. Squabbling about the economic costs and benefits does no side any favours and narrows the argument substantially.

I am perfectly willing to concede there is a general consensus of opinion of people deemed to be the top 100 thinkers by the FT. I wasn't even initially aware this was an issue my interest was peeked by another poster who continually states projections and opinions as cast iron fact.

There may well be some negative economic consequences in the short term as we transition out of the EU mainly due to instability but as for the medium/ long term I think projections are worthless as there are to many variables. There is no precedent for this Brexit scenario.

 

[Soulman]

Hang on, we only need the extra staff because our government hasn't bothered to train our own people, and more people are using the service because of things like immigration in the first place, secondly I know you haven't said it, but I get sick and tired of hearing that migrants have saved our NHS, it was my mum, dad and grandparents who paid in to the system years before through their own taxes that have provided the facilities we see today, which has allowed people from all over the world to get free treatment in decent facilities, something they wouldn't get in their own countries. Let's have a bit of respect to the older generation who made this country great, which has been sadly ripped apart.

Excellent post.

 

[sir albion]

Of course it was a previous generation that paid into the NHS to create the foundation that exists today. But it is also true that the UK is able to attract top medical talent, inside the NHS and in our universities and our large pharmaceutical corporations because we are an open and outward-looking country. At another level the ability to attract labour into the NHS, cleaners, food preparation, lab work etc is thanks to the ability to draw from a wide pool of EU workers. This increased competition reduces costs and therefore reduces the financial burden on the NHS.

Moreover demand on the NHS is increasing principally because so many people are getting towards retirement age. It is worth mentioning again that migrants pay more in tax than they take from the system. That means more money for hospitals.

That's just ball part figures as they also get health care,government top ups and schooling for their children and more.These won't be included into the tax figures.

 

[Soulman]

Of course it was a previous generation that paid into the NHS to create the foundation that exists today. But it is also true that the UK is able to attract top medical talent, inside the NHS and in our universities and our large pharmaceutical corporations because we are an open and outward-looking country. At another level the ability to attract labour into the NHS, cleaners, food preparation, lab work etc is thanks to the ability to draw from a wide pool of EU workers. This increased competition reduces costs and therefore reduces the financial burden on the NHS.

Moreover demand on the NHS is increasing principally because so many people are getting towards retirement age. It is worth mentioning again that migrants pay more in tax than they take from the system. That means more money for hospitals.

You are 25 years old, perhaps put this post to your grandfather and his generation, see if he agrees with your points.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

You are 25 years old, perhaps put this post to your grandfather and his generation, see if he agrees with your points.

I'm older, I agree with his points.

 

[pastafarian]

Free cunning fergus

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Secondly you assume that because some people got it wrong about the Euro they will be wrong about this, and therefore cannot be trusted. Firstly I find it highly unlikely that there was such uniformity on the Euro question as there is on the Brexit one. I haven't checked the bios of all 100 economists. But by saying that 'hundreds' of experts were wrong before means they will be wrong about a different issue, at a different time, with a different set of circumstances, is frankly ludicrous.

As is automatically assuming they are right THIS time. As it stands currently none have given any evidence of their claims, just like they didn't when the Euro question came up. They were wrong then and there is nothing to evidence that they will not be wrong this time.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Free cunning fergus

I would agree - I can see no reason why he was banned from this thread. I wonder who banned him and why ? Come on [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] - over rule your mods.

 

[Maldini]

Sad really, wanting to pull up the ladder.

Why is that sad? I don't want my town over run with foreigners and like I'm said I'm part italian so how is it you 100% Brits have another idea?! I don;t get it.
Yes I know the fashion is to call people like me racist.It's always easy to hurl insults without putting together a proper argument.I'm not racist.
There are some nationalities I like and don't mind being here but others I don't and I know I can't be picky.

What's wrong with wanting England to remain English?i don't get it.For me the beauty of the world is so many different countries with their
own idenity.Their own languages,food,style of architecture,behaviour,fashions,customes,traditions.It's part of why we travel,
to see something different.However if the EU stays as it is then in 20/30 years time when there has been truly mass movement of people
then we Europe will be like one country.Everything the same.What a shame.

 

[Maldini]

Many countries were involved in discussions regarding the Euro.Every leader had a team of economists/business leaders etc advising them .The conclusion was that the Euro was a good idea.It's been a frecking disaster !!! So when I hear economists and business leaders telling us Brexit will mean bad news I take no notice.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Why is that sad? I don't want my town over run with foreigners and like I'm said I'm part italian so how is it you 100% Brits have another idea?! I don;t get it.
Yes I know the fashion is to call people like me racist.It's always easy to hurl insults without putting together a proper argument.I'm not racist.
There are some nationalities I like and don't mind being here but others I don't and I know I can't be picky.

What's wrong with wanting England to remain English?i don't get it.For me the beauty of the world is so many different countries with their
own idenity.Their own languages,food,style of architecture,behaviour,fashions,customes,traditions.It's part of why we travel,
to see something different.However if the EU stays as it is then in 20/30 years time when there has been truly mass movement of people
then we Europe will be like one country.Everything the same.What a shame.

But the EU will bring this to your doorstep and save you the bother of expensive travel; you can't say fairer than that.

 

[jameswestport]

out