The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[Captain Sensible]

That is quite simply untrue because it's impossible to measure every issue completely, it's all still hypothetical and everyone weighs the importance of immigration, economics, politics and culture differently.That clearly does not point to a fact. It merely points to your bias.

We can both spend all day quoting all sorts of eminent experts in favour of our own arguments, I know I've done so here and elsewhere on many an occasion but there are very few facts and tons of speculation and opinion.

No, it is possible to predict what will (most likely) happen after a Brexit.

I'd argue it's more debatable what will happen if we stay.

 

[Hamilton]

splitting hairs
a regulation is a regulation,whether it is imposed on you or you decide to implement it because you are a so called willing partner of the EU shenanigans

It does matter when statistics are dressed up as reasons as to why we should leave.

I just think we have to look at this with a broad mindset.

Take the point about just training up Brits to do the work that is filled by immigration. NHS England estimates that they will have to turn to immigration to fill 70,000 posts. Furthermore, the NHS estimates that it would take more than a decade to train up homegrown talent to fill nursing positions. You might think that's great, but is that where we want to focus our education and training efforts? Really, we want an education sector focused on growing STEM expertise so that we can develop more jobs and industries less likely to be replicated by emerging economies - perhaps even creating technologies using AI and robotics that can reduce the numbers of people we need servicing the NHS.

 

[Buzzer]

No, it is possible to predict what will happen after a Brexit.

Yes. But predictions are not fact. I'm not trying to be obtuse. You're clearly a clued up bloke on the referendum and I'm sure that for you the cons outweigh the pros based on what you've read but what's important for you might not be for someone else or someone might just take an opposing view. You simply can't say a prediction of what is important for you is cast-iron fact and proof that Brexit is worse.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

There are various Free Trade Agreements in place and in the pipeline,there are also BilateralI agreements,customs unions,Association Agreements,and Economic Partnership Agreements which open up EU markets to the signatories.

this is the only all in one list i can find atm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Association_Agreement

the point is,there are various different options open that could be negotiated to suit a tailored UK deal,that would have our interests at heart.
and note all the FTA`s that do not involve signing up to freedom of movement as a condition

And the answer to my question about whether any of these agreements would be better or worse for UK exporters than our present open access to the single market?

 

[Captain Sensible]

Yes. But predictions are not fact. I'm not trying to be obtuse. You're clearly a clued up bloke on the referendum and I'm sure that for you the cons outweigh the pros based on what you've read but what's important for you might not be for someone else or someone might just take an opposing view. You simply can't say a prediction of what is important for you is cast-iron fact and proof that Brexit is worse.

Facts are what has been missing all along to be honest. There are some very important ones though. Facts are the EU is our biggest trading partner by a long long way and millions of jobs are directly linked to trade with the EU. That is fact. You risk losing that or a proportion of it after a Brexit. That is also Fact.

 

[Buzzer]

I'd argue it's more debatable what will happen if we stay.

And I'll be more than happy to argue that with you. For what it's worth, I've a nagging feeling that this referendum will mirror the Scottish one to a large degree, Remain will win with between 53 and 58 percent of the vote. I hope I'm wrong and we vote for a Brexit but if I were a betting man that's where I'd go for.

 

[Triggaaar]

The fact is there are more cons to a Brexit than pros.

That's not a fact, it's your biased opinion.

It's The economist not the Daily Mail or the Socialist worker.

It's still owned by people with an agenda, and they've decided how they want referendum to be presented.

Perhaps you'd like to point out the parts that are untrue.

If I get time at some point, I will.

No that is actually how it would work. It's how they deal with any nation wanting access to the free market. The U.K. Could say no to the offer and then the negotiation would start for real, but from a position of strength for the EU. Also the EU does not allow free trade of services, a huge amount of the UK's exports are services.

No it's not how it works at all. You're suggesting the UK would just sit their waiting for a letter to arrive with the deal, and say yes or no. Long before the letter arrives, everyone would know the UK will say no, as we'll be negotiating a deal that works for us and the EU. Not being part of the market would be terrible for the UK, but it would also completely destroy the EU. That's not what they want. That's not a position of strength for the EU, the position is that we both need each other, so a deal would be signed that is fair - probably meaning that it's much the same as it is now. And selling services to the EU would be part of that deal. We wouldn't agree anything that didn't include trading services.

Maybe that doesn't suit your agenda, but it is the reality if you're interested in that.

 

[Buzzer]

Facts are what has been missing all along to be honest. There are some very important ones though. Facts are the EU is our biggest trading partner by a long long way and millions of jobs are directly linked to trade with the EU. That is fact. You risk losing that or a proportion of it after a Brexit. That is also Fact.

And I think that risk is low and I also think it's very mitigatable (apologies if that's not a real word) if things go sour, which I don't believe they would. I posted this the other day but well worth a re-post as I think it's relevant. The EU may well be our largest trading partner but look at this:

This is also a fact:

 

[looney]

Simple query. Can you confirm that you are saying the EU will be prepared to ditch its foundation principle of free movement in order to allow the UK to continue to have free access to the single market?

nope they wont ditch that principle as it wont apply if the UK is not a member, so I wont confirm your straw man argument. They will free trade like Norway and other existing international trade rules.

In fact thats a really stupid post about some really basic stuff that you should know if posting in this thread.

 

[Maldini]

Too much focus on the economy.It's not just about that.I'm voting leave because I don't want to be part of the united states of europe where my home town is totally over run by foreign workers. They have pushed down wages and working conditions and brits won't stand for the same wages or conditions. It's not just a case of Brits being lazy.I know of a deli in Brighton offering £3.50 per hour.
I've heard it said that they contribute to the economy.How? The tax they pay would be paid by a brit who would take the same job for a decent wage.Higher wages paid means more tax so in fact foreign workers are contributing less tax.Some also send some of their money back home so that's even less contribution to our economy.
Cheap and easy to get foreign workers have made us lazy.We don't train British nurses because we don't need to.Just get them from abroad.Easy.

Yes of course many big businesses want to stay in europe because they employ thousands of CHEAP foreign workers and not because they think we need Europe for the economy.

If your house was full with family members and some more from abroad asked to stay you would have to say no.You don't have the room,the beds,the food.Well we don't have the room.Not enough houses,not enough jobs hence we have the unemployed.Not enough hospital beds,school places,longer queues in our hospitals,longer waiting time at the doctors and it goes on.WE ARE FULL.

I don't know why people are complaining they don't know which way to vote because they have no facts.It's simple.It's all out there.

 

[looney]

And the answer to my question about whether any of these agreements would be better or worse for UK exporters than our present open access to the single market?

I think there is an onus on you to say what barriers we would face if we left the EU? The Irony being any barrier you could come up with would also come down between us and the ROTW.

It is a catch 22 for the remain side so best stick to scare stories and boogie monsters eh.

 

[Captain Sensible]

That's not a fact, it's your biased opinion.
It's still owned by people with an agenda, and they've decided how they want referendum to be presented.
If I get time at some point, I will.

No it's not how it works at all. You're suggesting the UK would just sit their waiting for a letter to arrive with the deal, and say yes or no. Long before the letter arrives, everyone would know the UK will say no, as we'll be negotiating a deal that works for us and the EU. Not being part of the market would be terrible for the UK, but it would also completely destroy the EU. That's not what they want. That's not a position of strength for the EU, the position is that we both need each other, so a deal would be signed that is fair - probably meaning that it's much the same as it is now. And selling services to the EU would be part of that deal. We wouldn't agree anything that didn't include trading services.

Maybe that doesn't suit your agenda, but it is the reality if you're interested in that.

This is the problem that will come after a Brexit. There are so many people that actually believe what you have written in bold. There will be a very nasty shock for most Brexit voters if a Brexit succeed. 45% vrs 10%.

 

[The Fifth Column]

I'm voting to leave and nothing will sway me from that intention because its what I believe to be the right thing to do, its what my conscience is telling me to do and its my chance to contribute to what I think is the best path forward for this nation in a generation. All the arguments on both sides are chock full of ifs, buts, coulds and maybes but I'm fed up to the back teeth of being part of this expensive bureaucratic cluster*uck of an organisation and don't believe for a moment that a Brexit will signal the end of the world many are predicting. I'd like my national identity back thank you, I'm not european, I don't feel we are part of Europe any more than an Australian feels Australasian or an American feels 'North' American. I won't be persuaded by flawed economic arguments and think those that base their whole argument on economics are ignorant to a large part of the reason why some people want out, if you don't know what that is then you are evidence of that ignorance, I'm out and I'm staying out.

 

[Buzzer]

Too much focus on the economy.It's not just about that..

I agree entirely. For me it's taking back control of our laws and no longer contributing to an institutionally corrupt, undemocratic bureaucracy that is entirely self-serving and immune to reform.

 

[Captain Sensible]

And I think that risk is low and I also think it's very mitigatable (apologies if that's not a real word) if things go sour, which I don't believe they would. I posted this the other day but well worth a re-post as I think it's relevant. The EU may well be our largest trading partner but look at this:

This is also a fact:

Yes thanks for that. This is well known. Around half of all our trade.

 

[Captain Sensible]

I agree entirely. For me it's taking back control of our laws and no longer contributing to an institutionally corrupt, undemocratic bureaucracy that is entirely self-serving and immune to reform.

And replace it with our very own institutionally corrupt, undemocratic bureaucracy that is entirely self-serving and immune to reform.

 

[pastafarian]

And the answer to my question about whether any of these agreements would be better or worse for UK exporters than our present open access to the single market?

i dont think anyone can answer that either way until you were actually looking at what was contained in a specific trade deal
its a bit of an impossible question when dealing with a hypothetical future

if you were an exporter and a deal was struck where you still had free access to the EU and also had free access to any other countries that the UK would now be free to negotiate with i would say you would be happy as larry.......but thats also a hypothetical,but rather a nice one.....isnt it?

 

[Maldini]

As I keep saying to people,look at the EU like a bad marriage.You leave your wife, leave behind the house you bought together.You end up in a bedsit and financially you are worse off.However you don't care because now you are happy.I don't care if we leave and I am financially worse off.Couldn't care less.

Money isn't everything.I don't care if flights cost a bit more or food or flippin condoms.I couldn't give a toss.Who says all this will cost more anyway.Who says we will suffer economically.Where are the experts.Why did no-one see the crash in 2008.Who can honestly say they know what will happen if we leave.
Ask 10 top economist's and they will all have their own opinion so who's right and who's wrong.It's purey all guess work.

 

[pastafarian]

And replace it with our very own institutionally corrupt, undemocratic bureaucracy that is entirely self-serving and immune to reform.

you can vote our lot out though cant you if you dont like them

 

[Captain Sensible]

I agree entirely. For me it's taking back control of our laws and no longer contributing to an institutionally corrupt, undemocratic bureaucracy that is entirely self-serving and immune to reform.

This is the problem most think the EU is just about straight Bananas and Vacuum cleaners. In order to apparently 'take back our laws and start having our own laws. They risk having a recession for it.