The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[Lincoln Imp]

http://www.adamsmith.org/the-liberal-case-for-leave

It's biased. For clarity you need unbiased analysis and that's hard to find.

(But not impossible.)

 

[pastafarian]

Free movement will almost certainly still be in place even after a Brexit. The 2 years negotiating after a Brexit are not really a negotiation. They are terms that the EU will come up with to allow the UK access to the single market. At the top of that list of demands will be free movement. In order to stop free movement Britain will have to cut all ties and refuse the deal. It will inevitably lead to a very messy and costly divorce for the UK.

The EU can demand until they are blue in the face
A Brexit vote is a vote to end free movement to the UK.

When the dust has settled and exit negotiations have finished,trade agreements will be in place,along the lines of existing EU trade deals with other countries that DO NOT include freedom of movement.
Unless of course they go the way of your prediction that they will on behalf of all EU member states refuse to trade with us.

 

[5ways]

The EU can demand until they are blue in the face
A Brexit vote is a vote to end free movement to the UK.

When the dust has settled and exit negotiations have finished,trade agreements will be in place,along the lines of existing EU trade deals with other countries that DO NOT include freedom of movement.
Unless of course they go the way of your prediction that they will on behalf of all EU member states refuse to trade with us.

It must take immense cognitive ability to avoid everything that has been said by our European partners and our own leaders to say that we can leave the EU and retain access to the internal market without the free movement of EU people. It is the start and end point of post-Brexit negotiation, the EU will demand it and frankly it is in our benefit to keep the status quo. Something that this government, and the opposition, recognises.

 

[pastafarian]

It must take immense cognitive ability to avoid everything that has been said by our European partners and our own leaders to say that we can leave the EU and retain access to the internal market without the free movement of EU people. It is the start and end point of post-Brexit negotiation, the EU will demand it and frankly it is in our benefit to keep the status quo. Something that this government, and the opposition, recognises.

guess what,yes I am dismissing much of what our "european partners" and some of our leaders are telling me concerning how I should vote and telling me how it is in my best interest.
Much of it I don’t believe and most of it is self serving bollocks.
If you had paid any attention to this debate you would have realised a long time ago there are trade deals the EU has with other countries that DO NOT involve said countries signing up to freedom of movement.
I don’t care if the EU demands it,it is NOT in our interest and I am voting to free ourselves of their demands anyway

 

[Lincoln Imp]

guess what,yes I am dismissing much of what our "european partners" and some of our leaders are telling me concerning how I should vote and telling me how it is in my best interest.
Much of it I don’t believe and most of it is self serving bollocks.
If you had paid any attention to this debate you would have realised a long time ago there are trade deals the EU has with other countries that DO NOT involve said countries signing up to freedom of movement.
I don’t care if the EU demands it,it is NOT in our interest and I am voting to free ourselves of their demands anyway

So just to confirm your last sentence, you are saying that it is not in our interest to have free access to the single market and that if the EU insists on it as part of the deal then we should walk away from it?

 

[looney]

So just to confirm your last sentence, you are saying that it is not in our interest to have free access to the single market and that if the EU insists on it as part of the deal then we should walk away from it?

They wont.

 

[pastafarian]

So just to confirm your last sentence, you are saying that it is not in our interest to have free access to the single market and that if the EU insists on it as part of the deal then we should walk away from it?

Let me confirm to you what i wrote.
it is NOT in our interest to allow free movement into the UK

 

[Hamilton]

guess what,yes I am dismissing much of what our "european partners" and some of our leaders are telling me concerning how I should vote and telling me how it is in my best interest.
Much of it I don’t believe and most of it is self serving bollocks.
If you had paid any attention to this debate you would have realised a long time ago there are trade deals the EU has with other countries that DO NOT involve said countries signing up to freedom of movement.
I don’t care if the EU demands it,it is NOT in our interest and I am voting to free ourselves of their demands anyway

But in truth, you don't know why you are voting to leave. It just feels right.

That's what is so dangerous about this debate. The EU is not perfect. It needs reforming. But it is also not something we walk away from lightly. We simply can't afford to either turn our back on a huge trade bloc like the EU. It gives us access to markets both inside the EU and through the EU.

Too much of the debate is about emotional arguments centred around control of borders and control of policy. The House of Commons library tells us that just 10% of policy and regulation is handed down by the EU. As for immigration, even given the contraction in our economy we will still need immigration to fill posts in industries where the skills don't exist (e.g. The health service) or to do the work that most of us just don't appear to want to do - a job on the minimum wage whilst we are in the EU is still a job on the minimum wage outside the EU. The streets won't suddenly be paved with gold after a Leave vote (in fact PWC estimate the correction in our economy i.e. back to present levels, would take at least 20 years as we go through periods of economic instability.)

We have the power with our own government to bring about change. We don't need to leave the EU to do that. Claims that we are restricted by the EU are a smokescreen and an excuse. The whole EU debate has now turned into a powerplay so that the political elite Boris, IDS etc can jostle for position. Shameful and very high risk. Certainly, it won't be rich politicians that take the brunt of any Brexit decision.

There will continue to be bad news for the EU. The Greeks will soon default and their economy will collapse. We will need to pay our part in that, but the cost to us of a Europe that disintegrates would be huge. No economic partner, no powerful bloc of nations. We have to remember that our actions could bring that about.

There will need to be bail outs. There will be compromise. But it is up to be active in both maintaining the EU, reforming it and growing it.

Remain.

 

[sir albion]

But in truth, you don't know why you are voting to leave. It just feels right.

That's what is so dangerous about this debate. The EU is not perfect. It needs reforming. But it is also not something we walk away from lightly. We simply can't afford to either turn our back on a huge trade bloc like the EU. It gives us access to markets both inside the EU and through the EU.

Too much of the debate is about emotional arguments centred around control of borders and control of policy. The House of Commons library tells us that just 10% of policy and regulation is handed down by the EU. As for immigration, even given the contraction in our economy we will still need immigration to fill posts in industries where the skills don't exist (e.g. The health service) or to do the work that most of us just don't appear to want to do - a job on the minimum wage whilst we are in the EU is still a job on the minimum wage outside the EU. The streets won't suddenly be paved with gold after a Leave vote (in fact PWC estimate the correction in our economy i.e. back to present levels, would take at least 20 years as we go through periods of economic instability.)

We have the power with our own government to bring about change. We don't need to leave the EU to do that. Claims that we are restricted by the EU are a smokescreen and an excuse. The whole EU debate has now turned into a powerplay so that the political elite Boris, IDS etc can jostle for position. Shameful and very high risk. Certainly, it won't be rich politicians that take the brunt of any Brexit decision.

There will continue to be bad news for the EU. The Greeks will soon default and their economy will collapse. We will need to pay our part in that, but the cost to us of a Europe that disintegrates would be huge. No economic partner, no powerful bloc of nations. We have to remember that our actions could bring that about.

There will need to be bail outs. There will be compromise. But it is up to be active in both maintaining the EU, reforming it and growing it.

Remain.

We're not walking away from Europe and you can be sure the ball will be in our court once we leave.I like many can't stand the thought of a bunch of goons in Brussels mugging us off and demanding more money because our economy is doing well.
This list is endless as to why to leave and it would benefit all countries to leave this hideous organisation and get back to basics.

P.S I'm astonished that the government have used millions of our tax payers money to post leaflets through 30 million doors....How the hell is this allowed tell me?

 

[Hamilton]

We're not walking away from Europe and you can be sure the ball will be in our court once we leave.I like many can't stand the thought of a bunch of goons in Brussels mugging us off and demanding more money because our economy is doing well.
This list is endless as to why to leave and it would benefit all countries to leave this hideous organisation and get back to basics.

P.S I'm astonished that the government have used millions of our tax payers money to post leaflets through 30 million doors....How the hell is this allowed tell me?

But the EU is far more than a single issue. It is the sum of its parts and that sum adds up to more than just "a bunch of goons in Brussels mugging us off."

That sum is what needs to interest us, and not the anecdotal stories that people will share which just stirs emotions. This mustn't be an emotional decision, but a rational one. Our economy benefits from being a part of the EU and the EU benefits from us, and yes things are far from perfect.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

They wont.

Simple query. Can you confirm that you are saying the EU will be prepared to ditch its foundation principle of free movement in order to allow the UK to continue to have free access to the single market?

 

[pastafarian]

But in truth, you don't know why you are voting to leave. It just feels right.
.

i know just fine why i am voting to leave thanks all the same

The House of Commons library tells us that just 10% of policy and regulation is handed down by the EU.

Not true

The House of commons library says
1: Acts put in place by UK Parliament with EU influence — accounts for 10-14%
2: Regulations influenced by or related to the EU — accounts for 9-14%
3. EU regulations and regulations influenced by or related to the EU — accounts for 53%

here is a simplified fullfact analysis of the library report
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/

here is the full library report
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP10-62#fullreport

As for immigration, even given the contraction in our economy we will still need immigration to fill posts in industries where the skills don't exist (e.g. The health service) or to do the work that most of us just don't appear to want to do

thats fine by me,lets fill posts from abroad when skills are lacking
this can easily be done whilst having a controlled regulated border.

The EU is not perfect. It needs reforming.
We have the power with our own government to bring about change
There will need to be bail outs. There will be compromise. But it is up to be active in both maintaining the EU, reforming it and growing it.
.

The EU have shown time and again they dont do compromise or reform so good luck with that
As for growing it,when Turkey joins in years to come and the EU borders are pushed to Syria Iraq and Iran may i suggest you hold on to your hat

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The EU can demand until they are blue in the face
A Brexit vote is a vote to end free movement to the UK.

When the dust has settled and exit negotiations have finished,trade agreements will be in place,along the lines of existing EU trade deals with other countries that DO NOT include freedom of movement.
Unless of course they go the way of your prediction that they will on behalf of all EU member states refuse to trade with us.

Sorry to trouble you but I'm trying to get clear on some of the Brexit arguments. Are you saying here that our future trading relationship with the countries of the EU will be based on the sort of trade deals they have signed with other countries and if so what other countries are you thinking of? And as a supplementary, do you feel that a trade deal similar to that being worked out with (say) Canada* will be better or worse for British exporters and their staff?

*Feel free to invoke any other country.

 

[Hamilton]

i know just fine why i am voting to leave thanks all the same



Not true

The House of commons library says
1: Acts put in place by UK Parliament with EU influence — accounts for 10-14%
2: Regulations influenced by or related to the EU — accounts for 9-14%
3. EU regulations and regulations influenced by or related to the EU — accounts for 53%

here is a simplified fullfact analysis of the library report
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/

here is the full library report
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP10-62#fullreport



thats fine by me,lets fill posts from abroad when skills are lacking
this can easily be done whilst having a controlled regulated border.



The EU have shown time and again they dont do compromise or reform so good luck with that
As for growing it,when Turkey joins in years to come and the EU borders are pushed to Syria Iraq and Iran may i suggest you hold on to your hat

However, you'll know that if your refer to the House of Commons library reports in detail then they are clear that much of the regulation and legislation in place is not a result of EU diktat but a result of adoption of shared policies agreed by EU member states and not imposed by the EU parliament, which are two different things. The latter has less affect on us than the media lead us to believe.

 

[pastafarian]

Sorry to trouble you but I'm trying to get clear on some of the Brexit arguments. Are you saying here that our future trading relationship with the countries of the EU will be based on the sort of trade deals they have signed with other countries and if so what other countries are you thinking of? And as a supplementary, do you feel that a trade deal similar to that being worked out with (say) Canada* will be better or worse for British exporters and their staff?

*Feel free to invoke any other country.

There are various Free Trade Agreements in place and in the pipeline,there are also BilateralI agreements,customs unions,Association Agreements,and Economic Partnership Agreements which open up EU markets to the signatories.

this is the only all in one list i can find atm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Association_Agreement

the point is,there are various different options open that could be negotiated to suit a tailored UK deal,that would have our interests at heart.
and note all the FTA`s that do not involve signing up to freedom of movement as a condition

 

[Captain Sensible]

It's biased. For clarity you need unbiased analysis and that's hard to find.

The fact is there are more cons to a Brexit than pros. That's why when anyone sums up everything in an article such as this, it comes out as negative towards a Brexit. Because it's basically a bad idea for the country on the whole. It's The economist not the Daily Mail or the Socialist worker. Perhaps you'd like to point out the parts that are untrue.

 

[Captain Sensible]

That's so wrong it's laughable.

You want us to remain in, I get it, but spouting such nonsense makes any analysis you give worthless.

No that is actually how it would work. It's how they deal with any nation wanting access to the free market. The U.K. Could say no to the offer and then the negotiation would start for real, but from a position of strength for the EU. Also the EU does not allow free trade of services, a huge amount of the UK's exports are services.

 

[pastafarian]

However, you'll know that if your refer to the House of Commons library reports in detail then they are clear that much of the regulation and legislation in place is not a result of EU diktat but a result of adoption of shared policies agreed by EU member states and not imposed by the EU parliament, which are two different things. The latter has less affect on us than the media lead us to believe.

splitting hairs
a regulation is a regulation,whether it is imposed on you or you decide to implement it because you are a so called willing partner of the EU shenanigans

 

[Buzzer]

The fact is there are more cons to a Brexit than pros.

That is quite simply untrue because it's impossible to measure every issue completely, it's all still hypothetical and everyone weighs the importance of immigration, economics, politics and culture differently.That clearly does not point to a fact. It merely points to your bias.

We can both spend all day quoting all sorts of eminent experts in favour of our own arguments, I know I've done so here and elsewhere on many an occasion but there are very few facts and tons of speculation and opinion.

 

[Captain Sensible]

That's so wrong it's laughable.

You want us to remain in, I get it, but spouting such nonsense makes any analysis you give worthless.

http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/th.../title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html
http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/th...-international-agreement/506-article-218.html
The negotiations are set out by the EU. Fact.
Yes it is a club that has you by the short and curlies, I would rather the EU operated in different ways, but it is the way it is. The only way to change it is to stay within it.