[Politics] The NSC 'up all night' election night *** OFFICIAL MATCH THREAD ***

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

More pertinently, where will this little shitweasel be sitting and how long before he's found a place on the Labour front bench?


View attachment 185263

Can't stand Luke the Nuke

 

[TomandJerry]

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

That's an odd way to look at it.
All parties did get the seats they were due.
FPTP is a method focussed on 650 elections.
The winners of each election (are supposed to) represent their constituents.

In your opinion PR is fairer.
Fair enough. It's a very simplistic argument though.
I would certainly agree it would be much fairer in American Presidential elections.

Jeremy Corbyn would have been pissing in the wind (even more so) by standing as an independent.
He simply couldn't have gained enough votes to be re-elected to parliament.

Thanks for explaining FPTP to me. I have been voting for decades and do understand it.

You seem to suggest PR would be fairer in the US than the UK? Why would this be the case?

I get your point about independents but then there are different forms of PR. For example, Corbyn would be fine under German PR. In fact, there’s 5 independents in the Bundestag at the moment.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Not quite following on this point. Could you explain a little more?

Under the most simplistic PR model, each seat equates to 1/650th of the overall votes cast.
In this year's election 48m votes were cast, meaning each seat requires approximately 74000 votes.

The total votes cast in Islington North was 49000
Jezza got 24000 votes which entitles him to 1/3 of a seat.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Thanks for explaining FPTP to me. I have been voting for decades and do understand it.

You seem to suggest PR would be fairer in the US than the UK? Why would this be the case?

I get your point about independents but then there are different forms of PR. For example, Corbyn would be fine under German PR. In fact, there’s 5 independents in the Bundestag at the moment.

PR is fairer in Presidential elections, apologies for not being clearer.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned but watching and listening to Starmer post-election, I get the feeling he is a man who is going to be far more comfortable and impressive in office than in opposition. I don’t think he comes off as a natural campaigner and doesn’t have that aura of likeability about him. However, he certainly gives off the impression that he is a pragmatic administrator who will govern seriously and make sensible decisions. With time, this may well improve his likeability.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Not sure if this has already been mentioned but watching and listening to Starmer post-election, I get the feeling he is a man who is going to be far more comfortable and impressive in office than in opposition. I don’t think he comes off as a natural campaigner and doesn’t have that aura of likeability about him. However, he certainly gives off the impression that he is a pragmatic administrator who will govern seriously and make sensible decisions. With time, this may well improve his likeability.

That's the hope.

 

[armchairclubber]

No hope with Luke Akehurst.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

PR is fairer in Presidential elections, apologies for not being clearer.

PR is fairer in Presidential elections, apologies for not being clearer.

There are different forms of PR though. It’s too simplistic to say it’s fair in US and not UK.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Under the most simplistic PR model, each seat equates to 1/650th of the overall votes cast.
In this year's election 48m votes were cast, meaning each seat requires approximately 74000 votes.

The total votes cast in Islington North was 49000
Jezza got 24000 votes which entitles him to 1/3 of a seat.

Follow the German PR model and he’d have been fine.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Follow the German PR model and he’d have been fine.

Is that easy to explain?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Under the most simplistic PR model, each seat equates to 1/650th of the overall votes cast.
In this year's election 48m votes were cast, meaning each seat requires approximately 74000 votes.

The total votes cast in Islington North was 49000
Jezza got 24000 votes which entitles him to 1/3 of a seat.

You seem stuck on this single idea of PR which I’m not actually sure ANY countries use.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

There are different forms of PR though. It’s too simplistic to say it’s fair in US and not UK.

That wasn't my point.

The electoral college system in Presidential elections has led to Winners in a 2 horse race who did not win the popular vote.
It is unnecessary complication on a very simple poll.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

You seem stuck on this single idea of PR which I’m not actually sure ANY countries use.

Sure.

but the argument against the current system always starts from assuming that model would be in place.
I have never seen anyone run the numbers through any other model.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Is that easy to explain?

I haven’t had a coffee yet! I’ll post a link instead.

Scroll down to the section titled Election

Bundestag - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Sure.

but the argument against the current system always starts from assuming that model would be in place.
I have never seen anyone run the numbers through any other model.

Now that is true. I guess this is because 1) it’s easy 2) You cannot make easily make direct comparisons.

I just read there are around a hundred variations of PR around the world.

I presume if in principle you want PR, you select/develop a model with the things you want to protect eg MPs to represent their constituent.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I haven’t had a coffee yet! I’ll post a link instead.

Scroll down to the section titled Election

Bundestag - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Yeah I wouldn't be opposed to something similar to that approach, but I still think it provides too much power to populist parties.

 

[ROSM]

Indeed.

Furthermore, if the competition stated that, instead, the team scoring the most goals would win irrespective of wins in individual games, everyone would play in a way that made early De Zerbi look like late era Hughton.

It's a very good evening for Labour and for anti-Tory, pro-progressive voters. A game played to win.

Unfortunately, it took something as horrific as the 2019-24 vintage Tory Party to unite first Labour and then the tactical vote. 2029 will be harder.

The greens and reform have been like harry kane. Individual trophies but no team honour. To be fair to greens they were open at targeting 4 seats and then pushing in neighbouring ones hoping for a bit of osmosis. Lib dems were similar on a grander scale

What we saw and I say this as someone who saw a lot of the internal workings was that resources were moves from places that jad done enough or weren't going to win to those that were still on a knife edge. Some candidates were complaining about that but campaign discipline has been shown to work and pat mcfadden and angela rayner need to take a lot of credit for how they planned amd executed it

 

[WATFORD zero]

This election was fought on these rules, no point moaning about the result now, however.

I believe that a lot of people are missing one of the major factors of PR when saying 'at the last election this would mean'.

With most forms of PR the current huge coalitions of Labour and Conservatives pulling one way politically and then the other, in their chase for absolute power, would cease to exist. There would be a number of Parties replacing them that would be able to stick to their political principles long term.

There would be multiple parties reflecting the views of Farage, Braverman, Galloway, Denyer, Davey etc, but also separate parties reflecting the views of Corbyn, Starmer, Cleverly, Stewart, Hunt etc

You wouldn't see the two huge coalitions swing left and right chasing power and wouldn't get left with a choice of Johnson/Corbyn Each election, the 'winners' couldn't blame the other side as a lot of them would likely be in every Government and have to take proper responsibility for the long term implications of the decisions they make.

The British majority has, for the last few decades, voted centre left, so the chances of Harry's nightmare of a Farage/Braverman/Truss type coalition getting into power is somewhat unlikely

Much more likely is a Starmer/Stewart/Davey coalition with the occasional Cleverly or Denyer adding a few seats when necessary but having less power than Clegg had in the last Conservative/Lib Dem coalition

It's almost like grown up politics

 

[Weststander]

Anyway. This thread was great fun, thank you all. See you all next time.