[Politics] The NSC 'up all night' election night *** OFFICIAL MATCH THREAD ***

[Papa Lazarou]

Has to be Cruella Braverman. As I said earlier, her speech last night was so warm and moving that it felt like the White Witch enticing Edmund into her sleigh with turkish delight. I was convinced that at the end she was going to turn everyone to stone.

She's just the sort of hateful person that the Tories need to counter the Reform march

The right, especially the Bannon US aligned right seem to be behind Kemi. I'd expect her to be a strong candidate

 

[jackalbion]

It doesn't matter. Labour did the right thing. She was obsessed with Gaza, and her performance on Newsnight a few years ago, when she felt emboldened, was embarrassing.

I sense you have an agenda here, it was a fundamentally stupid decision to deselect her with one day to spare, votes will have likely gone to green anyway. On a good night for Labour a fundamentally moronic decision from everyone.

 

[peterward]

So who do we think is going to put their name in the hat for Tory leader? Most of these won't, but just scanning the remaining names that I recognise and a rough likelihood:

Esther McVey? (maybe)
David Davis? (doubt it)
Robert Jenrick? (he shouldn't, but he's thick enough to try)
Victoria Atkins (has been mooted)
Oliver Dowden? (he shouldn't, but he's thick enough to try)
Steve Barclay? (no idea)
Iain Duncan Smith? (doubt it)
Kemi Badenoch (she will try)
James Cleverly (expect he'll try)
Priti Patel (50-50)
Chris Philp? (doubt it)
Claire Coutinho? (no idea)
Tom Tugendhat (he'll try)
Kit Malthouse? (no idea)
Jeremy Hunt? (will he go again? more likely than not I think)
Suella Braverman (she will)
Mel Stride? (doubt it)

Of those with public profile. Ben Wallace would be their best bet, as he's respected for his ministerial role in defence, he'll hold Starmers feet to fire on defence spending and is maybe one of only senior figures not tarnished by their time in government.

Tobias Elwood is reasonably respected and comes from the more moderate wing.

Or someone unheard of who's younger?

They'd be making an even bigger mistake if that person is from the right, in the Truss/Braverman wing. Last night has proven the centre is where the majority is at.

One thing that was apparent this time as it was at the end of Blair/Brown years, is the public hates party division and infighting. Labour have kept a lid on divisions well in campaign, but they will still be there, the left, unions etc will start fighting at some point. The Tories have been publicly fighting and totally divided. Nothing will change for them unless that bit does first.

Will be at least a decade of Starmers Labour if they can keep a lid on factional fighting.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Labour share of the vote up 17% in Scotland, up 2% in the Midlands, everywhere else either unchanged or down.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Has to be Cruella Braverman. As I said earlier, her speech last night was so warm and moving that it felt like the White Witch enticing Edmund into her sleigh with turkish delight. I was convinced that at the end she was going to turn everyone to stone.

She's just the sort of hateful person that the Tories need to counter the Reform march

But she is 'Reform-curious'. She is likely to engineer a merger. The only fly in that oinkment is that Farage will insist on being leader. Or will he? Chancellor, in charge of (taking) all our money may appeal to him.

With a stable labour this could clinch a second term for Starmer.

 

[HeaviestTed]

I agree. I was celebrating Starmer's dullness as leader of the opposition (to much derision from folk to the left and to the right of me). And I was a bit disappointed to see sensible people moaning about him.

Like everyone I am drawn to charismatic leaders, and remember how I usually laughed at Johnson's jokes and had to actively remind myself what an absolute state the man is every time I saw him. Even during Covid. I don't want to be seduced by charismatic leadership. I want....exactly what I hope (and suspect) Starmer will deliver. Honour, judgement, steadfastness, wisdom, country first, party second (crikey, that was his slogan.....). If it is dull, then, fantastic.

I’m putting politics on ignore for a few years, gonna leave him to get on with it.

The grownups are back in the room.

 

[HeaviestTed]

But she is 'Reform-curious'. She is likely to engineer a merger. The only fly in that oinkment is that Farage will insist on being leader. Or will he? Chancellor, in charge of (taking) all our money may appeal to him.

With a stable labour this could clinch a second term for Starmer.

Farrage won’t last long, the actual nitty gritty of supporting the good people of clacton will be too dull for his narcissism and he will go find something more gratifying.

 

[Stato]

I had three hours sleep after Truss. Now watching the change over. Imagining Starmer's arrival after 14 years as being like this:



Dave Riggs and Alison Black = Boris Johnson & Liz Truss.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Just noticed how Labour won a landslide majority with less votes than the last election.

So the first lie you here will be how the people have spoken. When the people spoke to 66% voted for other parties.

Starmer is in Downing Street by default.

Lobby your local MP to change the system to Proportional Representation then.

 

[peterward]

Wasn't all plain sailing though. Shadow cabinet member defeated by an independent (due Gaza) in Leicester South.

Labour Shadow Cabinet member Jonathan Ashworth loses seat to pro-Gaza independent in shock result

Labour's Jonathan Ashworth has lost his Leicester South seat to an independent candidate, in a surprise result.

www.lbc.co.uk

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

17.4m folk voted for Brexit, many many millions voted for Reform last night. That eclectic bunch of right wingers who appear on QT represent that mindset.

If I had my way anyone from either extreme who held racist, antisemitic, hate speech, misogynistic or fundamentalist views wouldn’t get TV or radio time. But who are you or I to determine such things.

That’s a bit of stretch using Brexit as a point of picking the audiences considering that’s was pre the last election. Both the Dg and the chairman are stooges for the Tory party as you only have to look Laura Keuessberg performances.

 

[Driver8]

Labour take Poole from Conservatives by 18 votes!

Which cost me £50 in winnings.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I sense you have an agenda here, it was a fundamentally stupid decision to deselect her with one day to spare, votes will have likely gone to green anyway. On a good night for Labour a fundamentally moronic decision from everyone.

I do have an agenda. The taint of anti-Semitism had to be expunged. No ifs, no buts. Nobody is accusing labour of anti-Semitism now.

Meanwhile Starmer has very certainly not given any succour to Bibi. Not that the UK's support (or not) for Israel is relevant.

A split vote in one constituency and old IDS returned is a small and irrelevant battle lost. Like Corbyn willing his seat. These outcomes do not reflect the national imperative, and a mistake by Starmer. It does not mean Starmer is even more right wing than 'Liar Blair' (for those who hate Blair for having the temerity to back the US over Saddam).

No, Starmer should not have clung on to the anti-Semitic trope fools, especially Corbyn. I can't even remember the other one's name. That would have been fundamentally stupid.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

When the NE went blue last time, Boris recognised that they had lent him their vote and it was up to him to deliver something for them. He failed, the pandemic didn't help of course, but quietly dropping levelling up was a massive balls up. Then Truss happened screwing everyone. Now that it has gone red again but there was a sizeable Reform vote, do you think that unless Labour deliver for the NE and quickly, another shift will happen in the next election?

To be honest, I can't claim to be too plugged in to the smaller sort of towns which went Conservative for the first time last time, you'll probably have a much better feel for that than me being in Wolsingham. That said, when I do go to places like Barney or Bishop Auckland, they feel like the sort of places that in any other part of the country would be safely Conservative or maybe Con/Lib Dem if they were in the South West (in other words either heavily rural or a bit shit). If there isn't some sort of visible effort made in those areas it shouldn't be a surprise if people try voting Conservative or for other parties as a protest.

I'm not overly concerned by the Reform vote in Sunderland or Newcastle, they've had sizeable UKIP votes in the past, and the people I know from those places are so relaxed about how safely Labour they are that they just aren't all that bothered about getting out to vote.

 

[KZNSeagull]

I agree. I was celebrating Starmer's dullness as leader of the opposition (to much derision from folk to the left and to the right of me). And I was a bit disappointed to see sensible people moaning about him.

Like everyone I am drawn to charismatic leaders, and remember how I usually laughed at Johnson's jokes and had to actively remind myself what an absolute state the man is every time I saw him. Even during Covid. I don't want to be seduced by charismatic leadership. I want....exactly what I hope (and suspect) Starmer will deliver. Honour, judgement, steadfastness, wisdom, country first, party second (crikey, that was his slogan.....). If it is dull, then, fantastic.

He has a huge majority now. Dullness as in tinkering with things isn't going to cut it. He needs to be bold and effect some real change for the better. Whilst you will disagree, the lack of votes for him (just over 20% of the electorate) means that, if things do not start getting better and quickly, he could well be out on his ear in 5 years time.
Dull as in no controversies is fine, dull as in not doing much is not.

 

[pasty]

Has she gone yet?

 

[Eric the meek]

Listening to Alastair Campbell, he recalled a conversation with John Curtice a few months ago. Campbell was having a wobble about Labour's prospects, but Curtice said to him, that the Tories would lose the next election. He gave just two reasons why the Tories had already lost the electorate. First, was Boris and partygate. Second, was the Liz Truss fiasco.

The Tories fell down on two most basic requirements of 'electability'. Integrity and competence.

 

[Pevenseagull]

f*** it

Not slept and going to the cricket tonight


Might need the weather to be really bad

 

[Eeyore]

Lobby your local MP to change the system to Proportional Representation then.

I'm sure that my Labour MP, after winning 50% of the vote, will fully embrace the concept of PR

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Wasn't all plain sailing though. Shadow cabinet member defeated by an independent (due Gaza) in Leicester South.

Labour Shadow Cabinet member Jonathan Ashworth loses seat to pro-Gaza independent in shock result

Labour's Jonathan Ashworth has lost his Leicester South seat to an independent candidate, in a surprise result.

www.lbc.co.uk

Starmer's stance on Gaza cost him. A tiny bit. Two seats lost because of it. One retaken. You can't win them all.

Glad he did not try to wheedle with the pro-Hamas lobby.

If Starmer has piled into Israel the second they began their revenge for the disgusting attack by Hamas it would have been absurd. Corbyn would have done so, after a few days of dither admittedly, and his noble stance would, in the long run, have saved exactly no lives. None.

I love the fact that Starmer does not do gesture politics.