You don’t give the source for the 2.5% so it’s difficult to analyse (presume that's annual, and presume we’re talking about now), but if you were to add that to the UK GDP growth (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate) then the UK would have phenomenal growth of 3.6%, instead of being in the gaggle of European countries at roundabout 1% (and that’s ignoring Germany at 0%). I just find it difficult to see us being so ahead.Yes, yes it was. The economy would be in a totally different place without the continued burden of Brexit. A recent report estimated this at reduction in growth of 2.5%. Now doesn't 2.6 look a MUCH bigger number than 0.1?
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[Politics] The Labour Government
- Thread starter Super Steve Earle
- Start date
It's not hard to find various reports online detailing the continuing effect on the country's economy of the awful Brexit deal. Here's one:
Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say
The findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed.
www.bbc.co.uk
Here's the Statista report (yes it's annual to be fair but the point is the same).
Brexit effect on GDP forecast 2024 | Statista
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU.
www.statista.com
But it's about to get a lot worse as the one country we were told we'd get a free trade deal with has just elected an ultra-nationalist and protectionist who will immediately introduce tariffs on imports. No doubt some on this thread will blame that on Labour too, instead of a guy who's just put the healthcare of his country into the hands of an anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist.
In short, Brexit will continue to f**k us over, maybe forever and according to both Statista and the original Sky report I linked to, in an increasingly bad way.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,609
No. The living wage is an hourly wage, so even a 16 year old on current minimum wage is subject to the full impact if he/she works 23 hours a week. This charge is aimed at employers of part time workers.
Are you saying people on the minimum wage don't have full time jobs?
nicko31
Well-known member
Just sent an item to Poland by UPS (road), zero customs value, it took 13 days. We're in a messIt's not hard to find various reports online detailing the continuing effect on the country's economy of the awful Brexit deal. Here's one:
Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say
The findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed.www.bbc.co.uk
Here's the Statista report (yes it's annual to be fair but the point is the same).
Brexit effect on GDP forecast 2024 | Statista
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU.
But it's about to get a lot worse as the one country we were told we'd get a free trade deal with has just elected an ultra-nationalist and protectionist who will immediately introduce tariffs on imports. No doubt some on this thread will blame that on Labour too, instead of a guy who's just put the healthcare of his country into the hands of an anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist.
In short, Brexit will continue to f**k us over, maybe forever and according to both Statista and the original Sky report I linked to, in an increasingly bad way.
I have a number of stories relating to this. The most recent was a Brighton scarf I bought for a friend....ignoring the delay the duty was 92% on top of the cost of the item. I buy a lot of vinyl from the UK, this is around 30-35% on top. Some recent work hardware shipped from the UK cost an extra 20%. I'm lucky that I can aborb the cost, but I can only imagine how this has impacted some small businesses. So, it's a bit rich/hypocritical for certain types to complain about the effect of NI on SMEs when the Tory party and Brexiteers inflicted withdrawing from the world's largest trade zone on them. Why werent you caring for SMEs then?
Happy Friday
nicko31
Well-known member
I'm involved a business why the EU repair centre for a product used to be UK based, it was super easy. But with Brexit the centre was shut and moved to Poland. Now it a total nightmare, turn-around time can be anything from a 1 week to 5 weeks. It more cost, less efficient and uncertain.I have a number of stories relating to this. The most recent was a Brighton scarf I bought for a friend....ignoring the delay the duty was 92% on top of the cost of the item. I buy a lot of vinyl from the UK, this is around 30-35% on top. Some recent work hardware shipped from the UK cost an extra 20%. I'm lucky that I can aborb the cost, but I can only imagine how this has impacted some small businesses. So, it's a bit rich/hypocritical for certain types to complain about the effect of NI on SMEs when the Tory party and Brexiteers inflicted withdrawing from the world's largest trade zone on them. Why werent you caring for SMEs then?
Happy Friday
Johnson's deal was so crap
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,244
The thing that angers me is how Reeves and Starmer keep reiterating that they will not be entering into a Customs Union with the EU. What has Reeves got to gain by saying no to a Customs Union with the EU? She's still in campaigning mode. Just say nothing and at least you keep your options open.
I get no re-joining the EU, no to Single Market but surely if they are telling the truth about discovering a £22 billion black hole just for this year's finances they would be mad to rule out something that would instantly improve our economy the moment it was re-implemented.
It is utter madness to have campaigned and argued to Remain - as Labour did in 2016 - but to then double down in perpetuity to this dystopian Brexit outcome.
Since the Referendum about 5 million people have died in the UK. The over 65s voted 60/40 for Brexit, so Brexit has lost a net 1,000,000 votes there. Then if you factor in say 4.5 million have reached voting age since 2016 and they vote the same way 18-25 years olds did in 2016 (73/27% Remain) you have just over 2,000,000 new Remainers. Therefore, on demographics alone the 1.28 million Brexit majority is now c. 1.72 million Remain majority.
But even that doesn't factor in the economic deterioration since Brexit. Now polls are telling us out of 20 voters 11 say we were wrong to leave, 6 say we were right to leave, 3 are undecided. If you ignore the undecided, that is 64-36% that think we were wrong to leave.
Somebody needs to explain to Reeves, we've fallen off a cliff, we're on a ledge, the ledge is cracking, there's a rope dangling there back to the top but - no - let's stay on the ledge and see if Trump jumps on it so we plummet still further.
I get no re-joining the EU, no to Single Market but surely if they are telling the truth about discovering a £22 billion black hole just for this year's finances they would be mad to rule out something that would instantly improve our economy the moment it was re-implemented.
It is utter madness to have campaigned and argued to Remain - as Labour did in 2016 - but to then double down in perpetuity to this dystopian Brexit outcome.
Since the Referendum about 5 million people have died in the UK. The over 65s voted 60/40 for Brexit, so Brexit has lost a net 1,000,000 votes there. Then if you factor in say 4.5 million have reached voting age since 2016 and they vote the same way 18-25 years olds did in 2016 (73/27% Remain) you have just over 2,000,000 new Remainers. Therefore, on demographics alone the 1.28 million Brexit majority is now c. 1.72 million Remain majority.
But even that doesn't factor in the economic deterioration since Brexit. Now polls are telling us out of 20 voters 11 say we were wrong to leave, 6 say we were right to leave, 3 are undecided. If you ignore the undecided, that is 64-36% that think we were wrong to leave.
Somebody needs to explain to Reeves, we've fallen off a cliff, we're on a ledge, the ledge is cracking, there's a rope dangling there back to the top but - no - let's stay on the ledge and see if Trump jumps on it so we plummet still further.
1. The first of those sources makes no mention of 2.5%.It's not hard to find various reports online detailing the continuing effect on the country's economy of the awful Brexit deal. Here's one:
Brexit deal impact 'worsening', economists say
The findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed.www.bbc.co.uk
Here's the Statista report (yes it's annual to be fair but the point is the same).
Brexit effect on GDP forecast 2024 | Statista
A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU.
But it's about to get a lot worse as the one country we were told we'd get a free trade deal with has just elected an ultra-nationalist and protectionist who will immediately introduce tariffs on imports. No doubt some on this thread will blame that on Labour too, instead of a guy who's just put the healthcare of his country into the hands of an anti-vaxx conspiracy theorist.
In short, Brexit will continue to f**k us over, maybe forever and according to both Statista and the original Sky report I linked to, in an increasingly bad way.
2. The second refers to “recent reports suggest….” without giving a source without me creating a login. If you’ve the original source please let us have it.
3. The Sky report refers to another article which reveals that the original report was commissioned by that well-known neutral Sadiq Khan.
And I still don’t get how adding 2.5 to 1.1 gives an astronomical GDP growth way above Europe and approaching US/China levels.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,609
No. None of my comments about part-time workers were intended to imply that people on minimum wage can't have full time jobs.
nicko31
Well-known member
If we did re-join the CU it would be mean no control over doing new trade deals.
But lets be honest most are cut and paste, one or two have fringe benefits and one or two are actually worse.
Leaving the EU CU no net gain, instead just red tape which is strangling biz with our biggest trading partner
worthingweird
Well-known member
- Mar 8, 2023
- 356
Blame the remainers in parliament blocking everything...
Rdodge30
Well-known member
- Dec 30, 2022
- 585
No it’s the reduction of the starting point on paying employees NI to £5000 … less than £100 a week - which is bringing nearly all the part time workers in the country into the increased employers NI contributions
HisBetterBall
New member
- Sep 5, 2023
- 19
Its alright, england will carry on going down for the next 5 years and after that people will get sick of it and have an uproar
Rdodge30
Well-known member
- Dec 30, 2022
- 585
It’s astonishing the amount of people in this forum that think it was a good budget. The burden placed on small businesses will be too much for some and the burden placed on large businesses will without doubt be passed on to the workforce- directly through wage growth and redundancy and indirectly through price increases and inflation. I’m still scratching my head over where the “increased productivity “ is coming from … you simply cannot put that much extra in the outgoings column and increase productivity or growth in the economy