[Politics] The General Election Thread

[theonlymikey]

Boris doesn't think people are affected by flooding is not an emergency

https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/09/corb...national-emergency-11072260/?ito=newsnow-feed

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[theonlymikey]

Labour gain 4% on Tories in first week of campaigning

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...sus-conservatives-poll-idUKKBN1XJ0HH?rpc=401&

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[Bozza]

Labour gain 4% on Tories in first week of campaigning

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...sus-conservatives-poll-idUKKBN1XJ0HH?rpc=401&

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Heard a lot of talk about Electoral Calculus this week, but always when I was driving and unable to check it out.

Your post has just reminded me to do so.

I'm not sure it's great reading for Labour - https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

[LamieRobertson]

Something worth posting a link about

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-50167927

 

[LamieRobertson]

Heard a lot of talk about Electoral Calculus this week, but always when I was driving and unable to check it out.

Your post has just reminded me to do so.

I'm not sure it's great reading for Labour - https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

SNP do well on only an increase of 0.1% of the vote

 

[Bozza]

SNP do well on only an increase of 0.1% of the vote

That's 0.1% measured across the entire UK.

This is more specific to Scotchland: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

 

[Bozza]

Wouldn't this be a swing and a half: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brighton+Kemptown

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Wouldn't this be a swing and a half: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brighton+Kemptown

The weasels on borrowed time if the swingers get their act together in whitehawk and woodingdean
Regards
DF

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://twitter.com/tomjharper/status/1193279348851314688?s=21

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The Russia stuff is going to be leaked, but its influence on the election is going to depend on whether the BBC latch on to it and discuss it across their news and radio networks. If not, it stays in the Sunday Times and Observer and has little further impact.

There is a lot here reminding me of the last US Election, all these scandals about the Tories are being ignored just like they were about Trump. In the end he just squeaked home in the marginal states they were fighting over, but then cut huge swathes through the Democrats industrial heartlands, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin. In the end the Democrats just didn't like their candidate and liked the confident rhetoric of a rich man promising a brighter future.

I will not be surprised to see the Tories lose a few southern seats but just about hang on, whilst they win huge numbers in the north, as echoed in the recent Express poll. And there will be a lot of us who just cannot believe our country has chosen a lying snake-oil salesman like Boris Johnson to be our leader for the next five years. Results will show he got elected on the smallest winning percentage ever, despite the big majority, and then there will be a hell of a lot of recrimination and regret.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Wouldn't this be a swing and a half: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brighton+Kemptown

That predicts that the Brexit Party will take 4,300 votes, all off Labour. Are they seriously considering that Leave voters in the Brighton area voted Labour and not Tory in 2017? Can't see it

 

[Westdene Seagull]

That predicts that the Brexit Party will take 4,300 votes, all off Labour. Are they seriously considering that Leave voters in the Brighton area voted Labour and not Tory in 2017? Can't see it

I'm in Hove rather than Brighton but voted leave and then Labour at the last GE.

 

[nicko31]

If anyone was ever in doubt that Bojo as anything but a snake oil salesman look no further than here...

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192803905824075776

But maybe I'm missing the point, there is a rump of Tory voters that actually like being lied too.

Its all a calculation, hoping there is enough ignorance out there to get you over the line

 

[nicko31]

https://twitter.com/tomjharper/status/1193279348851314688?s=21

Interesting to see how many traction the whole Russia thing gets...

 

[monty uk]

Good ol' Boris:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1193424699860115456

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I'm in Hove rather than Brighton but voted leave and then Labour at the last GE.

You and I are oddities. I am one of the few in the GE poll (I was the only one last time I looked) who's switching from Liberal (it was a tactical vote) to Labour in the GE. Let's face it, some of us are just.....weird

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I'm in Hove rather than Brighton but voted leave and then Labour at the last GE.

OK, I accept that every sweeping generalisation will be met with anecdotal exceptions I would guess also that Brexit not THAT important in your vote then, which is fair enough.

I just don't think that the swathes of Labour Leave voters that will certainly switch to Brexit Party are in the south. I assume the vast majority of southern leave voters are already Tory, perhaps excellent constituency MP's like Kyle are an exception that proves the rule.

 

[The Antikythera Mechanism]

So looking forward to Corbyn and his politburo being swept aside.

 

[theonlymikey]

You'll be severely disappointed then considering anything other than a Tory Majority equals a Labour Minority Gov.

Kwasi having an absolute shocker this morning . Heavy lols.

"
Ridge asks Kwarteng about Boris Johnson’s comparison of Jeremy Corbyn to Stalin, who is estimated to have killed 1 million people.

Kwarteng defends the comparison as appropriate. He says “the philosophy, the underlying thinking” is similar but there is no suggestion that Corbyn will line people up against a wall and kill anybody."

Dear me.

"Asked again about the figure for the Conservatives, he says:

I’m not going to bandy around figures.

Ridge tells Kwarteng that’s exactly what the Tories are doing with respect to Labour."

Amen sister.



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[BLOCK F]

You and I are oddities. I am one of the few in the GE poll (I was the only one last time I looked) who's switching from Liberal (it was a tactical vote) to Labour in the GE. Let's face it, some of us are just.....weird [/QUOTE

You said it!