[Politics] The General Election Thread

[Bozza]

With YouGov’s detailed work with a 100,000 sample being carried out up to this Tuesday, giving a 68 seat majority.

One of EC or YouGov is going to smell of roses in a fortnight.

Yes, and no.

Both are forecasts based on voting intention NOW (well, a day or two ago), not in two weeks time. That said, can there be many people out there still making their minds up?

I've just checked Betfair and a Tory majority government is c1.4 (2/5 in old money) and I think that has shortened since I last looked a week or so ago, indicating the betting market is more in line with YouGov than Electoral Calculus right now.

 

[Mental Lental]

Why is it, the same people that don't give a shit if we are all poorer, as long as we get out of the EU, think Labours plans are too ****ing expensive?

It's because they're not very clever.

 

[Weststander]

Yes, and no.

Both are forecasts based on voting intention NOW (well, a day or two ago), not in two weeks time. That said, can there be many people out there still making their minds up?

I've just checked Betfair and a Tory majority government is c1.4 (2/5 in old money) and I think that has shortened since I last looked a week or so ago, indicating the betting market is more in line with YouGov than Electoral Calculus right now.

I guess that you understand betting markets more than me.

So, as in football or anything, do odds simply reflect cash flows / sentiment of those backing and laying? For example, ManC odds will always be shorter than real world probability, because 95% of punters think they’re virtually a sure bet?

Tapping your knowledge!

 

[Steve in Japan]

It's because they're not very clever.

You in Saitama still?

 

[Hugo Rune]

Two cracking Tory fake-news stories for today.

A fake newspaper being distributed in a London Tory marginal, just a tiny tiny mention that it’s produced by a Tory.

BBC lawyers are also in touch with the Tories about removing ANOTHER doctored piece that is out of context to what their reporters were actually saying.

They must think that the electorate are pretty damned stupid to fall for this sort of stuff, but then you look at the polls........[emoji51]

 

[Lever]

Well seeing as you only turned up to this board in February I guess your know it all persona gives gravitas to your question!

Your pointless little cryptic comment is noted.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Electoral Calculus has the forecast Tory majority evaporating rapidly...

View attachment 117632

Handy.

Don't want anyone staying at home, putting their feet up and thinking job done, do they ?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Why is it, the same people that don't give a shit if we are all poorer, as long as we get out of the EU, think Labours plans are too ****ing expensive?

Because they are so obsessed with getting out of the EU .... and attacking all labour policy follows from this.

It is a psychosis caused by sustained information warfare attacks, and no recovery is likely without cutting off the source of the attack.

I guarantee that if most of these people switched off their internet news feeds and ( to a lesser extent ) cancelled their newspapers etc. that within 6 months they'd not care about leaving the EU. And they would be so much happier and not wasting their lives on this malignly induced obsession.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Yes, and no.

Both are forecasts based on voting intention NOW (well, a day or two ago), not in two weeks time. That said, can there be many people out there still making their minds up?

I've just checked Betfair and a Tory majority government is c1.4 (2/5 in old money) and I think that has shortened since I last looked a week or so ago, indicating the betting market is more in line with YouGov than Electoral Calculus right now.

I oscillate on an hourly basis between voting Labour, Lib Dem, Green or spoiling the ballot.

It's still looking like pin the tail on the donkey ( but not the current donkeys in charge ).

 

[Mental Lental]

You in Saitama still?

Yep. And for the foreseeable future if Britain continues on it's current political course.

 

[beorhthelm]

Two cracking Tory fake-news stories for today.

A fake newspaper being distributed in a London Tory marginal, just a tiny tiny mention that it’s produced by a Tory.

read the Lib Dems were reported to Electoral Commission for similar. their defense is this has been common practice for decades. which they all have, ive seen all parties produce literature looking like a local newspaper, and given it about as much attention. why is anyone bothered by this all of a sudden?

 

[nicko31]

HOLY SH1T

Channel 4 hosts LEADERS debate, everyone excepts, Boris declines, EVENT CANCLELLED

Channel 4 hosts first ever LEADERS debate on climate change, everyone excepts, Boris declines, TORIES SEND DAD AND GOVE

Channel 4 tells Tories, sorry this is a LEADERS debate

Tory threaten to remove Channel 4 broadcasting licence

WE WERE WARNED - this is a turning point for free media in the UK

 

[Hugo Rune]

why is anyone bothered by this all of a sudden?

The fake paper is part of a wider fake news agenda narrative at play, particularly by the Tories. People should be bothered about the lies and propaganda coming out. It seems more than any other election, I thought there might be a tad more honesty after the all the Brexit campaign lying but no.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

It's because they're not very clever.

What makes you special then ?
Regards
DF

 

[Is it PotG?]

HOLY SH1T

Channel 4 hosts LEADERS debate, everyone excepts, Boris declines, EVENT CANCLELLED

Channel 4 hosts first ever LEADERS debate on climate change, everyone excepts, Boris declines, TORIES SEND DAD AND GOVE

Channel 4 tells Tories, sorry this is a LEADERS debate

Tory threaten to remove Channel 4 broadcasting licence

WE WERE WARNED - this is a turning point for free media in the UK

If you start the day, at 0700, seemingly as stressed and outraged then life really cannot be too much fun.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The fake paper is part of a wider fake news agenda narrative at play, particularly by the Tories. People should be bothered about the lies and propaganda coming out. It seems more than any other election, I thought there might be a tad more honesty after the all the Brexit campaign lying but no.

Exactly. Seen in isolation the newspaper isn't terrible (it's very obvious what it is from that photo). Put together with the change of Twitter handle that could, and should, have got CCHQ kicked off the platform, refusing to turn up for agreed interviews, manipulation of social media and threatening to close down Channel 4 and it's a lot more menacing. Vote Tory and you will get the unelected Cummings in charge of an even less objective media.

 

[nicko31]

Exactly. Seen in isolation the newspaper isn't terrible (it's very obvious what it is from that photo). Put together with the change of Twitter handle that could, and should, have got CCHQ kicked off the platform, refusing to turn up for agreed interviews, manipulation of social media and threatening to close down Channel 4 and it's a lot more menacing. Vote Tory and you will get the unelected Cummings in charge of an even less objective media.

I'd add kicking the Daily Mirror off their campaign bus to that. We're in a dangerous place with this lot, all so Trumpian.

They hate scrutiny from the public
They hate scrutiny from the media
They hate scrutiny from parliament

Its always someone elses fault.

Seems they've complained to Ofcom, good luck with that. They will tell them to go whistle and will probably be next....

 

[beorhthelm]

The fake paper is part of a wider fake news agenda narrative at play, particularly by the Tories. People should be bothered about the lies and propaganda coming out. It seems more than any other election, I thought there might be a tad more honesty after the all the Brexit campaign lying but no.

even though its an established practice? i think we're being played with "fake news" too, loose accusation thrown around at anything disagreed with. used to be exaggerated claims or news twisted favourably, basically marketing material, treated as such. now people shout fake news to immediatly discredit something. remember who popularised the term and the context (Trump, at actual news which was unfavourable).

 

[beorhthelm]

HOLY SH1T

Channel 4 hosts LEADERS debate, everyone excepts, Boris declines, EVENT CANCLELLED

Channel 4 hosts first ever LEADERS debate on climate change, everyone excepts, Boris declines, TORIES SEND DAD AND GOVE

Channel 4 tells Tories, sorry this is a LEADERS debate

Tory threaten to remove Channel 4 broadcasting licence

WE WERE WARNED - this is a turning point for free media in the UK

daft move by conservatives and counterproductive. duck out of event then highlight you ducked out and make it a bigger news issue... im not convinced Cummings et al are the genius made out to be, this is going to be focus of the news cycle today and only negative.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

The fake paper is part of a wider fake news agenda narrative at play, particularly by the Tories. People should be bothered about the lies and propaganda coming out. It seems more than any other election, I thought there might be a tad more honesty after the all the Brexit campaign lying but no.

As to the stunt of sending Gove to the climate debate, we already had one drip (the ice-melt) representing the Tory party, so why deploy another?

Seriously, I know there is a view that NSC is dominated by lefty/liberals, but there must be some decent Conservative supporters who are at least concerned at the way their party is handling this election?