[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[atomised]

More positive noises re the Oxford vaccine and trial progress today and an order for 30 million doses by september if it works.

 

[Bozza]

More positive noises re the Oxford vaccine and trial progress today and an order for 30 million doses by september if it works.

Was about to post the same. From CNN...

“The first clinical trial of the Oxford vaccine is progressing well, with all phase one participants having received their vaccine dose on schedule earlier this week. They’re now being monitored closely by the clinical trial team," Sharma said.

“Imperial College is also making good progress, and we will be looking to move into clinical trials by mid-June, with larger scale trials planned to begin in October,” he added.

Sharma said the government is thinking about how the vaccine would be manufactured if it is successful.

“I can also confirm that, with government support, Oxford University has finalized a global licensing agreement with AstraZeneca for the commercialization and manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine. This means that, if the vaccine is successful, AstraZeneca will work to make 30 million doses available by September for the UK, as part of an agreement to develop 100 million doses in total,” Sharma said.

He promised the UK “will be the first to get access," and will also ensure that “we’re able to make the vaccine available to developing countries at the lowest possible cost."

Sharma also announced that six drugs aimed at fighting the virus have now entered live clinical trials.​

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Was about to post the same. From CNN...

“The first clinical trial of the Oxford vaccine is progressing well, with all phase one participants having received their vaccine dose on schedule earlier this week. They’re now being monitored closely by the clinical trial team," Sharma said.

“Imperial College is also making good progress, and we will be looking to move into clinical trials by mid-June, with larger scale trials planned to begin in October,” he added.

Sharma said the government is thinking about how the vaccine would be manufactured if it is successful.

“I can also confirm that, with government support, Oxford University has finalized a global licensing agreement with AstraZeneca for the commercialization and manufacturing of the Oxford vaccine. This means that, if the vaccine is successful, AstraZeneca will work to make 30 million doses available by September for the UK, as part of an agreement to develop 100 million doses in total,” Sharma said.

He promised the UK “will be the first to get access," and will also ensure that “we’re able to make the vaccine available to developing countries at the lowest possible cost."

Sharma also announced that six drugs aimed at fighting the virus have now entered live clinical trials.​

Very good news.

Much better than the "we'll never get a vaccine so best end lockdown now" narrative that I'm seeing more and more of.

We mustn't give up on medical science.

 

[blue-shifted]

Very good news.

Much better than the "we'll never get a vaccine so best end lockdown now" narrative that I'm seeing more and more of.

We mustn't give up on medical science.

Well, as long as we're not taking this, that there will definitely be a working vaccine in September. More will fail than succeed (sorry for the negativity good news thread). Though I agree with the principle that medical science is what will get us out of this.

 

[atomised]

I dont think anyone is considering this to be guaranteed but it's a positive that it is being spoken about in such terms

 

[highflyer]

I dont think anyone is considering this to be guaranteed but it's a positive that it is being spoken about in such terms

Chris Whitty was quietly reassuring in a recent press conference. Not over-egging any one option - but saying that he'd be surprised if we didn't find some medical way to help us move out of the situation in time, whether an effective treatment (most likely a combination of some kind) or a vaccine, or mix of both.

There is still so much unknown, but this is how I see the most likely path ahead:

Over the summer we will find a way to live with it - balancing the need to live our lives and run the economy with various actions (maintaining social distancing, widespread use of masks, track and trace, some short, maybe regional, lockdowns if needed) to keep the level of infection at an acceptable level, such that the NHS can cope and vulnerable people can go out and about a bit more, and see family but with a sufficient level of caution that their risks are minimised. That appears increasingly possible given what we are seeing elsewhere, and as the levels of immunity grow it becomes a litte easier.

Then I suspect we will see some more effective treatments begin to emerge in the next few months, such that by late Autumn the overall risk levels drop and life becomes more comfortable/normal. That is the stage I suspect when we might see people starting to fly abroad and attend football matches again albeit, unfortunately, excluding the most vulnerable (but at least they will be able to watch/listen to football with actual crowd noise). It will begin to feel almost normal for most people - but not for all.

There will be some things I can't see coming back too quickly - high volume of foreign travel, packed pubs and clubs - and we may need to see some renewed periods of clampdown if a second wave happens - possible as winter sets in - but I'd expect that we'll catch it earlier, be better prepared, and it won't be as significant as what we've gone through already.

Then, within a year or two (maybe even quicker of course), we'll see a vaccine, but even then it will take quite a long time to completely deal with the virus, as it needs to be dealt with globally before we can go back to 100% 'normal' (or hopefully, something better than we had before) and it takes a while to vaccinate several billion people.

For me, compared to how I was feeling a couple of months ago, this vision constitutes good news.

How do others see it?

 

[Guinness Boy]

Chris Whitty was quietly reassuring in a recent press conference. Not over-egging any one option - but saying that he'd be surprised if we didn't find some medical way to help us move out of the situation in time, whether an effective treatment (most likely a combination of some kind) or a vaccine, or mix of both.

There is still so much unknown, but this is how I see the most likely path ahead:

Over the summer we will find a way to live with it - balancing the need to live our lives and run the economy with various actions (maintaining social distancing, widespread use of masks, track and trace, some short, maybe regional, lockdowns if needed) to keep the level of infection at an acceptable level, such that the NHS can cope and vulnerable people can go out and about a bit more, and see family but with a sufficient level of caution that their risks are minimised. That appears increasingly possible given what we are seeing elsewhere, and as the levels of immunity grow it becomes a litte easier.

Then I suspect we will see some more effective treatments begin to emerge in the next few months, such that by late Autumn the overall risk levels drop and life becomes more comfortable/normal. That is the stage I suspect when we might see people starting to fly abroad and attend football matches again albeit, unfortunately, excluding the most vulnerable (but at least they will be able to watch/listen to football with actual crowd noise). It will begin to feel almost normal for most people - but not for all.

There will be some things I can't see coming back too quickly - high volume of foreign travel, packed pubs and clubs - and we may need to see some renewed periods of clampdown if a second wave happens - possible as winter sets in - but I'd expect that we'll catch it earlier, be better prepared, and it won't be as significant as what we've gone through already.

Then, within a year or two (maybe even quicker of course), we'll see a vaccine, but even then it will take quite a long time to completely deal with the virus, as it needs to be dealt with globally before we can go back to 100% 'normal' (or hopefully, something better than we had before) and it takes a while to vaccinate several billion people.

For me, compared to how I was feeling a couple of months ago, this vision constitutes good news.

How do others see it?

Great post. I think that's probably the only way to handle it. I do think the rate of reduction in infection over the next three months will be interesting providing (and that's quite a big caveat) we can accurately tell whether that is seasonal (flu dies off in summer, claims made Vitamin D helps) or because we are managing it better or, simply, because many people have had it mildly.

 

[dazzer6666]

Chris Whitty was quietly reassuring in a recent press conference. Not over-egging any one option - but saying that he'd be surprised if we didn't find some medical way to help us move out of the situation in time, whether an effective treatment (most likely a combination of some kind) or a vaccine, or mix of both.

There is still so much unknown, but this is how I see the most likely path ahead:

Over the summer we will find a way to live with it - balancing the need to live our lives and run the economy with various actions (maintaining social distancing, widespread use of masks, track and trace, some short, maybe regional, lockdowns if needed) to keep the level of infection at an acceptable level, such that the NHS can cope and vulnerable people can go out and about a bit more, and see family but with a sufficient level of caution that their risks are minimised. That appears increasingly possible given what we are seeing elsewhere, and as the levels of immunity grow it becomes a litte easier.

Then I suspect we will see some more effective treatments begin to emerge in the next few months, such that by late Autumn the overall risk levels drop and life becomes more comfortable/normal. That is the stage I suspect when we might see people starting to fly abroad and attend football matches again albeit, unfortunately, excluding the most vulnerable (but at least they will be able to watch/listen to football with actual crowd noise). It will begin to feel almost normal for most people - but not for all.

There will be some things I can't see coming back too quickly - high volume of foreign travel, packed pubs and clubs - and we may need to see some renewed periods of clampdown if a second wave happens - possible as winter sets in - but I'd expect that we'll catch it earlier, be better prepared, and it won't be as significant as what we've gone through already.

Then, within a year or two (maybe even quicker of course), we'll see a vaccine, but even then it will take quite a long time to completely deal with the virus, as it needs to be dealt with globally before we can go back to 100% 'normal' (or hopefully, something better than we had before) and it takes a while to vaccinate several billion people.

For me, compared to how I was feeling a couple of months ago, this vision constitutes good news.

How do others see it?

Pretty much how I see it, although there is some thinking starting to emerge that the virus may 'run it's course' or similar (or perhaps become seasonal), and regardless of what strategy is used, the infection rate will plummet. If this is the case, and there are improved treatments and a vaccine (at least to immunise the more vulnerable) then we could be back to 'normal' much earlier and more 'normally' than the worst of the predictions, particularly if herd immunity theory is realised. The weight of money and brainpower being thrown at the problem globally should see some fairly rapid development of how the thing is effectively managed.

I'm quite optimistic.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Great post. I think that's probably the only way to handle it. I do think the rate of reduction in infection over the next three months will be interesting providing (and that's quite a big caveat) we can accurately tell whether that is seasonal (flu dies off in summer, claims made Vitamin D helps) or because we are managing it better or, simply, because many people have had it mildly.

Would be very odd indeed if Vitamin D/seasonal sunlight aspect wasn't being closely studied. Would go a long way towards explaining why Oz/NZ have had low incidences during their version of Summer, and Europe's cases seem to tailing off as the sun starts to get higher in the sky. Wouldn't explain Scandinavia tho

 

[dazzer6666]

Would be very odd indeed if Vitamin D/seasonal sunlight aspect wasn't being closely studied. Would go a long way towards explaining why Oz/NZ have had low incidences during their version of Summer, and Europe's cases seem to tailing off as the sun starts to get higher in the sky. Wouldn't explain Scandinavia tho

.....Brazil contradicts that slightly too as summer there and case numbers are horrific and rising (although their management of it has been pretty shocking).

 

[Guinness Boy]

Would be very odd indeed if Vitamin D/seasonal sunlight aspect wasn't being closely studied. Would go a long way towards explaining why Oz/NZ have had low incidences during their version of Summer, and Europe's cases seem to tailing off as the sun starts to get higher in the sky. Wouldn't explain Sweden tho

Well, the body is a complex old thing and those vitamins are needed for reasons that probably only a few experts fully understand. On the one hand the article that was linked here was classic "Bad Science". A journalist writing on a page belonging to an organisation that sells vitamin suppliments about a study that didn't seem to have been double blinded / peer reviewed etc. But certainly there is a lot of anecdotal and statistical "noise" around the bug being less prevalent in summer, hence the hope someone can use the coming months to study it properly. If, by September we have overwhelming evidence that Vitamin D suppliments will help in the winter that's another HUGE bit of good news.

 

[blue-shifted]

Would be very odd indeed if Vitamin D/seasonal sunlight aspect wasn't being closely studied. Would go a long way towards explaining why Oz/NZ have had low incidences during their version of Summer, and Europe's cases seem to tailing off as the sun starts to get higher in the sky. Wouldn't explain Scandinavia tho

Yes. Also it would explain why third world countries, who have vastly inferior medical infrastructure, less hygiene, less ability to socially distance and work from home etc haven't been ravaged in the same way that fading global superpowers, like us, US and Russia have been

 

[blue-shifted]

Well, the body is a complex old thing and those vitamins are needed for reasons that probably only a few experts fully understand. On the one hand the article that was linked here was classic "Bad Science". A journalist writing on a page belonging to an organisation that sells vitamin suppliments about a study that didn't seem to have been double blinded / peer reviewed etc. But certainly there is a lot of anecdotal and statistical "noise" around the bug being less prevalent in summer, hence the hope someone can use the coming months to study it properly. If, by September we have overwhelming evidence that Vitamin D suppliments will help in the winter that's another HUGE bit of good news.

And maybe when it gets colder, Rishi can be persuaded to bung us all a fortnight in the Algarve.

 

[Guinness Boy]

And maybe when it gets colder, Rishi can be persuaded to bung us all a fortnight in the Algarve.

Hopefully not all at the same time. There'd be a bit of a queue on the first tee and very little social distancing in the bar.

 

[Bozza]

The vitamin D thing has been discussed for quite some time. I recall having an (electronic) discussion with [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] many weeks ago. I think it was based on me watching this video at the time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

which references both of these studies:

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data >>> https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

Study confirms vitamin D protects against colds and flu >>> https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...irms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/

He's also covered it again in a recent video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fxw3nTZYlA

 

[LamieRobertson]

Hopefully not all at the same time. There'd be a bit of a queue on the first tee and very little social distancing in the bar.

I wouldn’t worry you’ll still be queueing in car park at Heathrow

 

[The Wizard]

The studies appear to show the virus can still survive in warm temperatures but not as successfully and so this reduces the transmission rate but you can still catch it, vitamin D levels appear to corroborate with death rates in quite a few places which shows you even though sunlight may not directly kill every virus cell it brings in many benefits that will help combat it. So here’s hoping for a long hot summer.

It’s hard to ignore the pattern of the virus dying right down to manageable levels within 60-90 days, this pattern has been repeated across many countries whether lockdown exists or not, it could also be mutating into something less deadly - Spanish flu and the flu viruses that cause most pandemics in history almost always mutate into something far less deadly - so much so that these viruses are actually still around now, just as one of the many flu/cold viruses that circulate.

I’d be worried about pinning hopes on a vaccine given past issues with coronavirus vaccines though, an effective treatment is more likely in the near term IMO

 

[Poojah]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52701621

Italy and Spain taking their next steps out of lockdown, with bars, restaurants and hairdressers all reopening, as measures are eased without any apparent resurgence of the virus. Given we were typically about 3 weeks behind those two nations going into this, we may not be far away from some significant steps towards normalcy.

It’s by no means an important thing in the big scheme of things, however I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t looking forward to my first pub pint (albeit possible an al fresco one).

 

[wehatepalace]

This is a genuine question, the government sound very confident in a vaccine to be mass producing 30m doses ready for September which to me sounds like they are either very confident or extremely reckless, but nevertheless as covid is a coronavirus the same as a cold, how can we not find a vaccine for that ?
This is a question for someone far cleverer than me !

 

[highflyer]

This is a genuine question, the government sound very confident in a vaccine to be mass producing 30m doses ready for September which to me sounds like they are either very confident or extremely reckless, but nevertheless as covid is a coronavirus the same as a cold, how can we not find a vaccine for that ?
This is a question for someone far cleverer than me !

My understanding is that we haven't tried. Colds are not worth the hassle and cost of vaccinating for (it's an expensive business, as you have to vaccinate a very large number of people to make it work).

And tricky buggers to deal with these virus's.