Billy the Fish
Technocrat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ng-third-wave-based-flawed-figures-telegraph/
I thought this was a really good analysis of why Imperial, Warwick and LSHTM's models are a load of bollox!
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[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ng-third-wave-based-flawed-figures-telegraph/
I thought this was a really good analysis of why Imperial, Warwick and LSHTM's models are a load of bollox!
By definition at least one of these models has to be wildly inaccurate and whilst I'm conscious of giving credence to the one I like and dismissing the one I don't, I'm inclined to side with the UCL model based initially on my own anecdotal logic and calculations but more importantly due to the other important details highlighted in that excellent Telegraph article. I've copied and pasted the most salient points below:
The bit in bold is crucial because it is based on actual testing, not a mathematical model. I'd echo the thoughts of others earlier in suggesting that if this turns out to be remotely close to the truth, it might just be the best single piece of news on this year old thread to date, at least for those of us living in the UK.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
More news backing up what we've been seeing in the stats for a while now :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56663969
Increasingly strong evidence shows that the UK's vaccination programme is breaking the link between Covid-19 cases and deaths, scientists tracking the epidemic have said.
A study found infections had fallen by roughly two-thirds since February, before beginning to level off.
This is probably because people are beginning to mix more - but deaths have not followed the same pattern.
This was not the case before January, when the vaccine rollout began.
The research, commissioned by the government and run by Imperial College London, is based on swabs taken from 140,000 people selected to represent England's population.
Of that group, who were tested for the virus between 11 and 30 March, 227 had a positive result, giving a rate of 0.2%, or one in 500 people.
But in people over the age of 65, the infection rate was half that with one in 1,000 people testing positive for Covid.
During the period of 4 to 23 February, when the React study was last carried out, an estimated one in 200 people in England had the virus.
This represented a two-thirds fall since January and, at that time, it was almost entirely down to lockdown.
Now, scientists can identify decreases which are being driven by vaccination.
Infections most common in children
After a significant fall between February and March, during the roughly three-week period to the end of March, cases were "just about flat", said Prof Stephen Riley at Imperial College London, one of the study's authors.
They estimated the virus's reproduction number during this period up to the end of March to be one, meaning the epidemic is level but not receding.
"Since the first substantial relaxation of lockdown in England with the opening of schools on 8 March 2021, the rate of decline of new cases has slowed considerably," the report said.
Infections were most common in primary and early secondary school-aged children (five to 12-year-olds) and lowest in the over-65s, which the Imperial team said was "consistent with an effect from the vaccination rollout".
The flattening off "probably does reflect increased social mixing", Prof Riley said, and some of that will be to do with schools opening up.
He said it was "gratifying", however, that rates did not go up when schools reopened, which he said was "certainly a possibility".
Scientists and government would need to keep a "close watching brief as the lockdown gets eased further", Prof Riley said. But, he explained, the faster the vaccine is rolled out, the less chance increased contact will lead to an increase in cases.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56663969
Increasingly strong evidence shows that the UK's vaccination programme is breaking the link between Covid-19 cases and deaths, scientists tracking the epidemic have said.
A study found infections had fallen by roughly two-thirds since February, before beginning to level off.
This is probably because people are beginning to mix more - but deaths have not followed the same pattern.
This was not the case before January, when the vaccine rollout began.
The research, commissioned by the government and run by Imperial College London, is based on swabs taken from 140,000 people selected to represent England's population.
Of that group, who were tested for the virus between 11 and 30 March, 227 had a positive result, giving a rate of 0.2%, or one in 500 people.
But in people over the age of 65, the infection rate was half that with one in 1,000 people testing positive for Covid.
During the period of 4 to 23 February, when the React study was last carried out, an estimated one in 200 people in England had the virus.
This represented a two-thirds fall since January and, at that time, it was almost entirely down to lockdown.
Now, scientists can identify decreases which are being driven by vaccination.
Infections most common in children
After a significant fall between February and March, during the roughly three-week period to the end of March, cases were "just about flat", said Prof Stephen Riley at Imperial College London, one of the study's authors.
They estimated the virus's reproduction number during this period up to the end of March to be one, meaning the epidemic is level but not receding.
"Since the first substantial relaxation of lockdown in England with the opening of schools on 8 March 2021, the rate of decline of new cases has slowed considerably," the report said.
Infections were most common in primary and early secondary school-aged children (five to 12-year-olds) and lowest in the over-65s, which the Imperial team said was "consistent with an effect from the vaccination rollout".
The flattening off "probably does reflect increased social mixing", Prof Riley said, and some of that will be to do with schools opening up.
He said it was "gratifying", however, that rates did not go up when schools reopened, which he said was "certainly a possibility".
Scientists and government would need to keep a "close watching brief as the lockdown gets eased further", Prof Riley said. But, he explained, the faster the vaccine is rolled out, the less chance increased contact will lead to an increase in cases.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
....and perhaps why it should be discussed on the covid forum
highflyer
Well-known member
- Jan 21, 2016
- 2,552
Just watched this and was goig to post it, but you beat me to it. Lots and lots of good news in there, and amongst all that there are a couple of interesting points that might get lost:
- The data is showing that, while side effects from the Oxford jab are relatively common on first dose, they are much less common for the second. So if you got hit the first time round be reassured that it's very unlikely to be as bad for the second jab
- Out of 600,000 people that have logged effects of the Oxford jab, they have recorded NO cases of blood clots. And that didn't surprise them. That is how rare it is.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Since you mention blood clots (I’ve posted this on the other forum) ..he tweeted this earlier
In France- 1 in 2 people are refusing their AZ vaccines because of the fears of clots. The media fail to put risk in context . We have 79 cases total in 4 months. Each day 300 unvaccinated people have strokes and 240 have major clots, some related to medications and lifestyle
Hugely exciting. For context, do we know what’s not operating as normal in Israel right now? I’ve seen videos of life looking very much normal, but I wasn’t sure whether people had returned to offices en masse yet, or whether social distancing had been dropped in indoor settings.
cjd
Well-known member
More good news is that the overwhelming majority of you on this forum do not live in this catastrophically inept countryas far as Covid 19 goes.
It is an utter shambles here.
For those of you old enough to remember periodic petrol shortages in the UK and a neighbour or friend might rush up to you say "quick, quick, they've got some petrol on sale at Tescos.Sainsbury/ Asdas garages. Hurry up before they run out again...!" Well, it'sd just like that here for the vaccines.
Only the other day one of my two neighbours in my hamlet came knocking on my door to tell me excitedly that a pharmacy only 8 miles away had some vaccines, but I had to be quick to get there.....( there doesn't seem to be any need to belong to that district or pharmacy...chaos ). On arrival of course, the gallic shrug of the shoulders and the " I 'ave no idea when we will 'ave more ..?".
This country couldn't organise a piss-up in brewery.....it's wonderful news that you don't live here.
PS: It does have very very cheap houses and the weather is better. Just a shame the French live here too..
They are still being cautious - good article here that explains some of the current measures. They look to be a very useful pilot of the kind model we're following - I'd much rather we stayed cautious and did this only once......they've driven their infection rates to very low levels, and we're following quite close behind.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/schoo...er-passover-break-despite-low-infection-rate/
nwgull
Well-known member
I lived and worked in France for a year and really loved it. I could never get over the unnecessary admin though. When they started their vaccine rollout back in Jan and people were having to have a pre-vaccine appointment a week before getting the actual jab, I just thought it was the most French thing ever.
Numbers update - all still ticking down very nicely week-on-week.........and back over 500k jabs reported.......:
Infections - 3,030, rolling 7 day down 37.3%
Deaths - 53, rolling 7 day down 32.5%
Admissions - 220, rolling 7 day down 26.1%
Vaccs - 99k first and 408k 2nd, cumulative 31.8m & 6.1m
In hospital - 3,124
Infections - 3,030, rolling 7 day down 37.3%
Deaths - 53, rolling 7 day down 32.5%
Admissions - 220, rolling 7 day down 26.1%
Vaccs - 99k first and 408k 2nd, cumulative 31.8m & 6.1m
In hospital - 3,124
Weststander
Well-known member
cjd
Well-known member
In order to keep this in the "good news thread" one of my friends has just returned from the local surgery where9 people were booked for their first vaccine. After 40 minutes my local doctor ( an absolute double for Hattie Jaques but without the smile ) came from her office to inform them that they had no vaccines......but they should have some next week.
So, yayyyyyyyyyyyy.....maybe another 9 people in France to receive their first dose by next week.
Great news eh....!
PS; Hopefully the French Army will be much more involved soon to help.......( hopefully with a couple of chieftain tanks to level our surgery, which still operates with a receptionist who books appointments in pencil in the diary. She also has a rubber which is in constant use to cancel appointments she decides aren't really that important . I kid you not ).)
Weststander
Well-known member
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
The biggest hospital in São Paulo, Brazil, completed a study on the Coronavac vaccine which revealed 73.8% efficacy against Covid disease.
Notably, the P1 “Brazillian variant” accounts for 80% of cases in this area.
https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1380222155573633024?s=21
Notably, the P1 “Brazillian variant” accounts for 80% of cases in this area.
https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1380222155573633024?s=21
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/antiparasitic-drug-could-prevent-covid-19-lung-damage
Just been in a conference call with the lead author. Apparently this drug is bloody magic!
Just been in a conference call with the lead author. Apparently this drug is bloody magic!
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Sounds fantastic! Yet another drug to add to our armaments against this pigging disease!