Djmiles
Barndoor Holroyd
Ha probably! As we keep saying, there is still time for it to change!
[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]
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Ha probably! As we keep saying, there is still time for it to change!
SK1NT
Well-known member
I love this thread 
So excited for loads of snow... woohoo
So excited for loads of snow... woohoo
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
Met Office for London & SE England - looking good 
)
Yellow Alert of Snow18 Jan 2013, 03:00Yellow Alert of Snow
Valid From: 18 Jan 2013, 03:00
Valid To: 18 Jan 2013, 23:55
Issued at - 16 Jan 2013, 10:56
Valid from - 18 Jan 2013, 03:00
Valid to - 18 Jan 2013, 23:55
As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.
The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.
)Yellow Alert of Snow18 Jan 2013, 03:00Yellow Alert of Snow
Valid From: 18 Jan 2013, 03:00
Valid To: 18 Jan 2013, 23:55
Issued at - 16 Jan 2013, 10:56
Valid from - 18 Jan 2013, 03:00
Valid to - 18 Jan 2013, 23:55
As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.
The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.
CorgiRegisteredFriend
Well-known member
Quite clearly very few of you on this thread are going to Birmingham on Saturday. I for one do not want anything other than a mildish dry and sunny day- thank you!
Djmiles
Barndoor Holroyd
I have my train and match tickets booked already.
I don't want the game to be postponed, but if it is postponed I would like some snow here to make up for it!
porkdog
Member
From looking at most Weather websites and the information on this thread the likely hood of getting to Brimingham is going to be pretty slim. I'm also pretty sure that by the time you get to Birmingham it would be a wasted journey. Can't see the game being on but good luck on your travels
CorgiRegisteredFriend
Well-known member
Totally agree with you. I cant make mid week matches so if it is postponed I hope for a refund.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Twitter / metoffice: Map: expected fresh #snow ...
Look at this everywhere but southern coastal strip, is this some sort of sick joke!
This was raised on TWO, and I asked this very question. I got this reply:
So, steady as you are
swindonseagull
Well-known member
Looking good for us in the west......
I work at RAF Northolt and the met men have advised travel on the M4 corridor is not advisable on Friday.....might take that to 'work from home'
I work at RAF Northolt and the met men have advised travel on the M4 corridor is not advisable on Friday.....might take that to 'work from home'
The Stout Yeoman
Master Farter
Met Office for London & SE England - looking good
Yellow Alert of Snow18 Jan 2013, 03:00Yellow Alert of Snow
Valid From: 18 Jan 2013, 03:00
Valid To: 18 Jan 2013, 23:55
Issued at - 16 Jan 2013, 10:56
Valid from - 18 Jan 2013, 03:00
Valid to - 18 Jan 2013, 23:55
As the weather breaks down, an area of snow looks increasingly likely to spread from the southwest. Winds will strengthen and blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of more than 10 cm of snow are possible in many parts, with the potential for some severe disruption, though currently there is a good deal of uncertainty about intensity of snow and how quickly it will turn to rain in the southwest.
The public should be aware of the risk of significant travel disruption affecting the west in the morning and the east in the afternoon. This warning is likely to be updated over the next couple of days.
Yellow snow alert - keep all dogs indoors!
Giant Seagull
That was textbook
This was raised on TWO, and I asked this very question. I got this reply:
So, steady as you are
Sounds good then
, suppose we have to be sceptical especially if it comes from the West, small margins and all that!
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Sounds good then
Yes, this is only based upon the current info... it still could change.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Sort of related, as my weather station didn't calculate it, this is useful for calculating the dew point.
Dew Point Calculator
For example here, now, it's -0.4c, and 95% humidity, which gives a dew point of -1.2c.
Dew Point Calculator
For example here, now, it's -0.4c, and 95% humidity, which gives a dew point of -1.2c.
larus
Well-known member
Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the 12z output from the big three namely GFS, UKMO and ECM for tonight Wednesday January 16th 2013.
All models are agreed for the next 48 hours though even at this range the specific detail differs between them. A weak front lies close to West Wales in a cold and slack pool of air over the UK over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow night sees an active frontal system moving into the West of the UK with and area of rain, readily turning to snow inland across Western areas by morning. Through the day the front decelerates as it moves East and the energy gradually slides SE late in the day. Widespread and in places heavy snowfall will occur, heaviest in Central and Western areas away from the far SW. Late in the day as the front slides away and weakens the snow will ease down and die out in most places over Saturday.
GFS then shows a quieter day or so with much of the UK under snow cover with cold conditions prevailing as a weak ridge develops briefly. By Monday further sliding Low pressure over the SW renews the risk of further rain and snowfall before towards midweek the Atlantic breaks through with rain and strong winds developing a rapid thaw of lying snow. The rest of the run shows a changeable pattern with another brief colder incursion through FI while on the whole there would be plenty of wind and rain on a milder wind flow blowing from the West.
The GFS Ensembles show the operational run was one of the milder options tonight though one can't ignore the slow trend to nearer to normal conditions as we move through Week 2. There are plenty of precipitation spikes on offer too indicating that rainfall would be commonplace as the Atlantic Lows push in and over the UK later.
The Jet Flow shows a flow weakly blowing SE over the UK. In a day or two the flow markedly strengthens as it steams across the Atlantic and crosses Europe well to the South of the UK. Eventually the flow ridges over the Atlantic and down over the UK in a week or so time.
UKMO tonight shows Low pressure filling and moving SE over France over the weekend with the legacy of Fridays snow dying out slowly over Saturday. Sunday should be a dry and cold day with a lot of cloud over the snowfields. On Monday a further area of rain and snow moves in from the SW with snow once more disruptive for some although rain is possible in the SW. Through the remaining early days of the week there will be further rain, sleet and snow in places as Low pressure close to the South of Britain fails to make inroads into the cold block over the UK.
ECM tonight shows a very wintry spell indeed with a widespread snow event on Friday subsiding away East and South over the weekend leaving cold and grey conditions for many though in any overnight clear skies some very low temperature values can be expected. By early next week a re-run of Friday seems possible as further Low pressure moves in close to the SW and on down into France by Tuesday. A bitter and strong East wind would develop on this second Low's northern flank with drifting of lying snow a major hazard should this setup verify. Through the middle of the week cold, snowy weather persists especially in the South as Low pressure is slow to move away East to the South of Britain. The end of the run shows the weather finally settling down as High pressure develops over the UK but in very cold air and countrywide snow cover some record breakingly low night time temperatures would be possible.
In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying cold through the reliable part of the output and most likely beyond too. The battleground will continue to be the UK for the next 5-7 days as successive attempts of mild air from the Atlantic try to displace the cold over the UK. The resultant copious snowfall remains a major feature of the weather with some very difficult travelling issues likely over the next week. Longer term various options are shown with GFS taking us on a milder route along with its ensembles while ECM looks like a pattern reload in the closing frame of its operational as the cold block remains to the NE, reaching across to the UK still. With pressure falling to the West the Jet is seen to be travelling South again with more disrupting troughs sliding SE over the UK likely in the days that would follow.
All models are agreed for the next 48 hours though even at this range the specific detail differs between them. A weak front lies close to West Wales in a cold and slack pool of air over the UK over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow night sees an active frontal system moving into the West of the UK with and area of rain, readily turning to snow inland across Western areas by morning. Through the day the front decelerates as it moves East and the energy gradually slides SE late in the day. Widespread and in places heavy snowfall will occur, heaviest in Central and Western areas away from the far SW. Late in the day as the front slides away and weakens the snow will ease down and die out in most places over Saturday.
GFS then shows a quieter day or so with much of the UK under snow cover with cold conditions prevailing as a weak ridge develops briefly. By Monday further sliding Low pressure over the SW renews the risk of further rain and snowfall before towards midweek the Atlantic breaks through with rain and strong winds developing a rapid thaw of lying snow. The rest of the run shows a changeable pattern with another brief colder incursion through FI while on the whole there would be plenty of wind and rain on a milder wind flow blowing from the West.
The GFS Ensembles show the operational run was one of the milder options tonight though one can't ignore the slow trend to nearer to normal conditions as we move through Week 2. There are plenty of precipitation spikes on offer too indicating that rainfall would be commonplace as the Atlantic Lows push in and over the UK later.
The Jet Flow shows a flow weakly blowing SE over the UK. In a day or two the flow markedly strengthens as it steams across the Atlantic and crosses Europe well to the South of the UK. Eventually the flow ridges over the Atlantic and down over the UK in a week or so time.
UKMO tonight shows Low pressure filling and moving SE over France over the weekend with the legacy of Fridays snow dying out slowly over Saturday. Sunday should be a dry and cold day with a lot of cloud over the snowfields. On Monday a further area of rain and snow moves in from the SW with snow once more disruptive for some although rain is possible in the SW. Through the remaining early days of the week there will be further rain, sleet and snow in places as Low pressure close to the South of Britain fails to make inroads into the cold block over the UK.
ECM tonight shows a very wintry spell indeed with a widespread snow event on Friday subsiding away East and South over the weekend leaving cold and grey conditions for many though in any overnight clear skies some very low temperature values can be expected. By early next week a re-run of Friday seems possible as further Low pressure moves in close to the SW and on down into France by Tuesday. A bitter and strong East wind would develop on this second Low's northern flank with drifting of lying snow a major hazard should this setup verify. Through the middle of the week cold, snowy weather persists especially in the South as Low pressure is slow to move away East to the South of Britain. The end of the run shows the weather finally settling down as High pressure develops over the UK but in very cold air and countrywide snow cover some record breakingly low night time temperatures would be possible.
In Summary tonight the weather looks like staying cold through the reliable part of the output and most likely beyond too. The battleground will continue to be the UK for the next 5-7 days as successive attempts of mild air from the Atlantic try to displace the cold over the UK. The resultant copious snowfall remains a major feature of the weather with some very difficult travelling issues likely over the next week. Longer term various options are shown with GFS taking us on a milder route along with its ensembles while ECM looks like a pattern reload in the closing frame of its operational as the cold block remains to the NE, reaching across to the UK still. With pressure falling to the West the Jet is seen to be travelling South again with more disrupting troughs sliding SE over the UK likely in the days that would follow.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
When i saw Gibby's post from The Weather Outlook on here i thought I'd gone to the wrong site!
The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]
I was gonna travel up to Birmingham Friday morning as I'm going to see some friends up there and watch the game on Saturday, not looking likely now
The only time I can remember when I don't actually want snow
I was gonna travel up to Birmingham Friday morning as I'm going to see some friends up there and watch the game on Saturday, not looking likely now
The only time I can remember when I don't actually want snow
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
This is where the run down posted earlier came from
Model Output Discussion 16/01/13 11:40>>> - Page 15 - Weather - TheWeatherOutlook - TheWeatherOutlook discussion forum
Model Output Discussion 16/01/13 11:40>>> - Page 15 - Weather - TheWeatherOutlook - TheWeatherOutlook discussion forum
larus
Well-known member
It's been fascinating to watch this unfold over the last week or so. This is potentially a series of events now though if certain scenarios play out. Could be quite serious?
Oh good. You've only gone and given me another forum to obsess over now!
