[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Weststander]

I think it varies - the problem is the websites that rely on the Operational run for ANY model,, without any analysis.

For example, the ECM Op has been towards to the top of the ensemble for the past 2 days (in terms of surface temps) and therefore pages processing that raw data will give skewed outlook. The same applies to those that use GFS data, although the GFS Op has been firmly in line with its ensemble for the past 24 hours.

The best forecasts review ALL available data and make a judgement; which is what I hope I do... although I do WANT snow!

Being a snow lover, I hope the non-BBC forecasts are correct. Not given up on this winter just yet!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

To be fair, he didn't give a detailed view on NEXT week, he only forecast the temps for THIS week. He did make some general comments about there being no snow, and no cold though.

I predicted 8-12 c by day this week which is going to be spot on, again. I also said 5 c max next week and no snow as it is far too late and the sun too strong and this " event " is taking too long considering it happened ages ago so fully expect it to be a complete and utter non event, yes it may be " chilly " but 5c and a bit of cold rain, so I am actually hoping this does not happen as want spring now and better weather as this thing is 1 month too late

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I have just done my Newhaven reports and for this winter is is showing an average day time maximum of

December 8.8 c
January 10.5 c
Febraury 7.7 c

So it has been another mild winter. We have had colder nights than recent winters but as for the day time, only 2 days all winter with a max day time termperature of 4 c as a low. Several slight frosts and 1 cm of snow one morning that was gone by 10 am. You cannot dispute the facts

 

[Weststander]

I have just done my Newhaven reports and for this winter is is showing an average day time maximum of

December 8.8 c
January 10.5 c
Febraury 7.7 c

So it has been another mild winter. We have had colder nights than recent winters but as for the day time, only 2 days all winter with a max day time termperature of 4 c as a low. Several slight frosts and 1 cm of snow one morning that was gone at 10 am. You cannot dispute the facts

You're right. 30 year average daily max for Sussex coast is about 7.5C for both Jan & Feb.

Definitely more car ice scrapping this Dec, but rare in Jan/Feb this year.

But as a lifelong Sussex resident, this is bloody common. So many winters with none to a dusting of snow.

Another reason why I love my trips to the Alps to get snow fix.

 

[Yoda]

I have just done my Newhaven reports and for this winter is is showing an average day time maximum of

December 8.8 c
January 10.5 c
Febraury 7.7 c

So it has been another mild winter. We have had colder nights than recent winters but as for the day time, only 2 days all winter with a max day time termperature of 4 c as a low. Several slight frosts and 1 cm of snow one morning that was gone by 10 am. You cannot dispute the facts

It's amazing what a few miles gives as a difference.

Worthing's here:

December Average HIGH: 8.25
December Average LOW: 2.65
December Average TEMP: 5.45

January Average HIGH: 9.06
January Average LOW: 3.48
January Average TEMP: 6.27

February Average HIGH: 7.05 (Rest of month: 5.7)
February Average LOW: 0.00 (0.1)
February Average TEMP: 3.53 (2.9)

Note, the rest of the month forecast figures are being skewed by the mild start to this week. From Thursday it is more likely 4.29max, -1.43min and 1.43ave.

 

[casbom]

So currently still a difference between the major weather models.

For some models, they project the really cold air to arrive over the UK beginning of next week, this heralds in potentially severe cold and snow (ala GFS/GEM and looks like UKM is going this way)

On the other hand you have the really cold air not quite hitting these shores and goes through France, so we do get colder but not as cold as the above scenario. We could still see some snow flurries and maybe a bit more but nowhere near as much as it could be.

Normally what happens when there is a discrepancy between GFS and ECM, is we get a compromise solution. So that means cold next week with a good chance of seeing proper snow (laying).

Also when there is a difference take a note of the Met Office Text forecasts. These use all available Forecasting tools (some that we don't fully see) so if they are saying cold and snowy for next week then that's a good indication of what they're expecting to see.

And what do their text forecasts show?

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So currently still a difference between the major weather models.

For some models, they project the really cold air to arrive over the UK beginning of next week, this heralds in potentially severe cold and snow (ala GFS/GEM and looks like UKM is going this way)

On the other hand you have the really cold air not quite hitting these shores and goes through France, so we do get colder but not as cold as the above scenario. We could still see some snow flurries and maybe a bit more but nowhere near as much as it could be.

Normally what happens when there is a discrepancy between GFS and ECM, is we get a compromise solution. So that means cold next week with a good chance of seeing proper snow (laying).

Also when there is a difference take a note of the Met Office Text forecasts. These use all available Forecasting tools (some that we don't fully see) so if they are saying cold and snowy for next week then that's a good indication of what they're expecting to see.

And what do their text forecasts show?

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

The ECM is roughly in line with the GFS, if you consider the ensemble view.

 

[casbom]

The ECM is roughly in line with the GFS, if you consider the ensemble view.

View attachment 94359

It is but it also shows the very fine line between getting a severe cold and snowy spell, and a cold with snow flurries spell (as an example). I would like the blob of cold from Russia to be higher north on the ECM tonight, just to be sure we get those -15/-16 uppers.

 

[Weststander]

It is but it also shows the very fine line between getting a severe cold and snowy spell, and a cold with snow flurries spell (as an example). I would like the blob of cold from Russia to be higher north on the ECM tonight, just to be sure we get those -15/-16 uppers.

With winds from the continent, would snow be light, even if it got very cold?

 

[casbom]

With winds from the continent, would snow be light, even if it got very cold?

If the wind is from the SE and there are no other disturbances or short waves in the flow, then yes any snow would be light as this would be generated via the channel. However the 06Z GFS for example has a low pressure over southern France which throws up a front towards the UK, so I would presume that's what they mean by significant snow.

IF we end up with an E or ENE wind with uppers of over -15 then we would in effect have Lake Effect snow.

 

[Audax]

Next batch of models starting to roll out. Netweather community currently getting excited as the non-ECM models are looking like they're bringing the cold in quicker and stronger. Still waiting to see what they have to say about ECM itself.

I predicted 8-12 c by day this week which is going to be spot on, again. I also said 5 c max next week and no snow as it is far too late and the sun too strong and this " event " is taking too long considering it happened ages ago so fully expect it to be a complete and utter non event, yes it may be " chilly " but 5c and a bit of cold rain, so I am actually hoping this does not happen as want spring now and better weather as this thing is 1 month too late

Even your favourite BBC isn't forecasting 8-12*C this week. For Brighton they've currently got 9*C tomorrow, but from there it's all going down: 7*C Wednesday, then 6*C rest of the week. They've then got 4*C Mon-Weds next week before starting to come back up. But as noted earlier in this thread, BBC is using the one model that's currently biased warmer (which may be correct, but if it is it's still not going to give you average highs for this week in your 8-12 range) and they themselves tend to bias warmer at longer range. Netweather have Brighton at 1*C by Sunday (and a -6*C "Feels Like"!) and potential for some snow showers as early as Thursday.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Next batch of models starting to roll out. Netweather community currently getting excited as the non-ECM models are looking like they're bringing the cold in quicker and stronger. Still waiting to see what they have to say about ECM itself.




Even your favourite BBC isn't forecasting 8-12*C this week. For Brighton they've currently got 9*C tomorrow, but from there it's all going down: 7*C Wednesday, then 6*C rest of the week. They've then got 4*C Mon-Weds next week before starting to come back up. But as noted earlier in this thread, BBC is using the one model that's currently biased warmer (which may be correct, but if it is it's still not going to give you average highs for this week in your 8-12 range) and they themselves tend to bias warmer at longer range. Netweather have Brighton at 1*C by Sunday (and a -6*C "Feels Like"!) and potential for some snow showers as early as Thursday.

Yep, GEM brings the cold air by late Saturday.

 

[Audax]

Yep, GEM brings the cold air by late Saturday.

Can't help myself getting a little excited. It's a week out and knowing my luck it'll vanish into thin air by the time we get there, but I really want to see a significant snow event before the winter is out. Had a couple of tasters at home a couple weeks back, would really love to see something substantial now that the models have got a sniff of a major snow event.

 

[Doc Lynam]

Can we introduce a 1-10 rating of snow by the people who have tech knowledge for those of us that don’t?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Can we introduce a 1-10 rating of snow by the people who have tech knowledge for those of us that don’t?

The Flumpage Index?

 

[Djmiles]

The Flumpage Index?

The Flumdex?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The Flumdex?

That will work.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So level 0 = no snow (could be rain or no preciptation at all)

Today we have a Flumpdex score of zero

 

[Taybha]

Winter can bugger off now , it had it's chance , time for daffs and lunatics mowing their wet grass at 7am on a sunday .

 

[Papa Lazarou]

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