[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Yoda]

Weather pornage on the 06z GFS with not just the cold air over us but also a couple of low pressure systems moving across to the South of us from the continent.

 

[Yoda]

Most of the models on the ensembles are in rough agreement up to a week ahead now:

 

[larus]

So the 5-6c is for the following week?

Well, we can’t get snow settling/cold spell as the sun is tooooo strong at this time of the year.

I think we’ll look back on 2018 as ‘one of those winters’ in a few years time (OK, it’s not certain, but the general consensus appears to be this is very likely, and also, if it arrives, it will be a sustained period).

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Most of the models on the ensembles are in rough agreement up to a week ahead now:

Factor in the ECM which is also very cold and it's looking pretty likely now.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What's the link to this site papa?

http://www.meteociel.com/

Use the links down the left side for a number of models.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Well, we can’t get snow settling/cold spell as the sun is tooooo strong at this time of the year.

I think we’ll look back on 2018 as ‘one of those winters’ in a few years time (OK, it’s not certain, but the general consensus appears to be this is very likely, and also, if it arrives, it will be a sustained period).

Look, I don't know what all these pictures and graphs mean, so can somebody just tell me please: at what point should I dig out the snow boots and start getting excited?

 

[martin tyler]

Look, I don't know what all these pictures and graphs mean, so can somebody just tell me please: at what point should I dig out the snow boots and start getting excited?

I’m new to reading graphs like these but I think and I hope an expert can assist but I think that next weekend onwards currently looks pretty tasty and the models are all beginning to suggest a really cold easterly flow and snow. Only downside is it’s still a week away and so much can still change but the models are all beginning to sing from the same sheet so it’s increasingly likely. Certainly colder than the 10 degrees that has been suggested and lots of potential for snow

 

[Lady Whistledown]

I’m new to reading graphs like these but I think and I hope an expert can assist but I think that next weekend onwards currently looks pretty tasty and the models are all beginning to suggest a really cold easterly flow and snow. Only downside is it’s still a week away and so much can still change but the models are all beginning to sing from the same sheet so it’s increasingly likely. Certainly colder than the 10 degrees that has been suggested and lots of potential for snow

Everybody down to the Amex to dig the snow off the pitch

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Imagine playing a game in these conditions now

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Look, I don't know what all these pictures and graphs mean, so can somebody just tell me please: at what point should I dig out the snow boots and start getting excited?

Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

 

[Peteinblack]

Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

 

[portslade seagull]

Imagine playing a game in these conditions now

Bless them, they would get ice burns. Can't possibly play in such conditions

 

[vegster]

Bless them, they would get ice burns. Can't possibly play in such conditions

Can you imagine the likes of Ronaldo playing his normal game on that surface ? he's be bruised and cut to pieces after that.

 

[Stoichkov]

The netweather mob are going predictably berserk but I'll stick with the more measured forecasts on here I reckon

 

[Giraffe]

Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

This is a great summary. Any chance of a daily update for the next few days so we can see how this is developing?

 

[casbom]

Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

Haha! You enjoyed writing that didn’t you! ��

 

[Bozza]

Ok, my interpretation based upon all the model data.

Tomorrow we'll see some rain pushing West to East as the last of the frontal feature that's in the West at the moment passes through. With a ridge of high pressure from the Azores clode by tomorrow will be the mildest day of the week, peaking at 11C in Sussex with a SW wind over us.

Tuesday will be a quiet day, with a max of about 9 or perhaps 10C and perhaps a light rain shower in a NW breeze.

Wednesday onwards sees us picking up a gentle flow from the East, and day time temps will drop off to about 7c by which will feel cold as the dew point will have dropped to around 0c as modified continental air starts to arrive in a keen NE breeze. A day of clear skies and bright sunshine.

Thursday sees colder air, with dew points -3C arrive and day time temps of 5C in an easterly breeze. We're still not in the really cold air, but with DPs at about -4 to -5C it will be a day that starts clear and sunny, but with some cloud later. An frost is possible overnight into Friday.

Friday sees temps perhaps half a degree lower, so 4C or 5C on the coast, with colder air over us in a direct easterly. Dew points are still low at -5C with still an outside chance of light showers of sleet or snow in Kent / East Sussex.

Overnight into Saturday will probably see the start of the colder air arriving here, with dew points dropping to -7c widely across the region. An overnight frost will herald a crisp, cold day, with an easterly breeze and max temps of 2 or 3C here, followed by a cold night.

Sunday is when the really cold air looks like arriving, with -9 to -10C dew points widely, and max temps of 2c in the places to the West, but nearer 0c towards Kent in a keen easterly. There is also a early signal that we might see some snow showers across the SE corner later on Sunday and overnight. Temps possibly as low as -4C inland overnight.

Monday onwards I will leave for now, as the details will change, but in general I'd suggest the most likely outcome is day time max temps of 1 to 2C, with some places at or below freezing. We will see an increasing chance of snow either from showers, or depending on synoptic details, longer periods of snow at times. Night time temps will be well below freezing where we see clear skies and close to freezing under any cloud / snow in a NE / E wind.

Forecasting snowfall is pointless at this range, as the best falls often come from small scale features that arise at short range, so let's just say there's potential.

I would see this cold spell last at least 3 or 4 days, but it could extend longer.

Reasonable enough high level summary. Any chance of some detail though?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

This is a great summary. Any chance of a daily update for the next few days so we can see how this is developing?

Haha! You enjoyed writing that didn’t you! ��

Reasonable enough high level summary. Any chance of some detail though?

I shall endeavour to keep NSC apprised of any changes and developments

 

[Giraffe]

Seems to be firming up on a decent snow event Monday to Wednesday next week. Fingers crossed.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Seems to be firming up on a decent snow event Monday to Wednesday next week. Fingers crossed.

The only wrinkle at this range is the ECM Op run which keeps the high pressure too far south, so the worst / best of the cold air goes to our south. Need to check where on the ensemble set this run sits to understand its significance.