[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Uncle Spielberg]

According to the weather snow towards the end of the week

On Ben Nevis ?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

BBC weather says 9C next Thursday. Mild, wet and windy all week with westerly winds.

 

[Yoda]

Some of the longer range models are looking tasty for the beginning of February though, so don't count your chickens just yet.

 

[Falkor]

US said the whole Uk was sky news

 

[Peever]

Snowed here again today

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I am confused at the moment. The weathermen seem to have completely lost the plot. The forecast for the week showed a plunge of blue , cold air by Friday so can someone please explain to me how on god's green earth 8C, is cold for the end of January ?

It just shows how warm this winter has been that 8C can be considered a cold day when the average is 6-7C.

Sunday 11C
Monday 9C
Tueday 8C
Wednesday 11C
Thursday 9C
Friday 8C

Everyday above normal and mild.

 

[The Auditor]

Start of Feb is begining to look interesting

 

[Djmiles]

Start of Feb is begining to look interesting

Not an expert on this kind of thing, but looks like an Easterly wind from a cold continent?

Perfect.

 

[supaseagull]

Where papa when you need him?


Sent from my iPhone using a goat

 

[Uwinsc]

Start of Feb is begining to look interesting

I hope not: I start a new job first week in Feb and really need to be able to get there everyday for atleast the first week

 

[Husty]

Hasn't stopped snowing for 2 days here

 

[supaseagull]

Hasn't stopped snowing for 2 days here

BOOOOOOO!!!!

Send some of it over!

 

[pauli cee]

I hope not: I start a new job first week in Feb and really need to be able to get there everyday for atleast the first week

good luck! i've had the same boring job for too long and hope i'm snowed in for a week or 2!

 

[Stoichkov]

I'll wait for the considered view of Papa but they're starting to go beserk on the netweather forum although from what I see on there (I dip in and out to get a 'flavour') that happens a fair bit

 

[Flex Your Head]

Looking interesting on the Met office website; they've finally updated their long-ish term forecasts from the ones [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] quoted above. They're edging more in favour of a (possibly) prolonged cold spell:

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 8 Feb 2012:At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.


UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012:
The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.


Also, [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION], what models and data sets do you use to extract your weather predictions? Wiithout wishing to sound rude, it does appear that you base your thought purely on 'gut feeling' and by taking the predicted temperatures for the week ahead from a weather website, or the BBC or something, and anyone can do that!

 

[The Wizard]

Although the MET issued that yesterday there have been developments from a cold perspective, the last few runs have been very poor, the ECM and GFS have agreement that there will be no cold spell, at least not in the next 2 weeks, this is however only the past two model runs, the 12z today(next model output) is all important as it could bury the cold potential completely.

EDIT: Just to say I'm not saying a cold spell will not happen because there are so many tiny variables that can change everything just saying that if the current trend continues, from the 06hrs GFS and 00hrs ECM then its game over, FAX charts however are still holding out with the easterly, for any novice these are charts that the met office forecasters draw up based on data/experience

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I use a finger in the air model and my predcitions have been spot on. The cold snap this weekend is again downgraded to average temps of 7C. There is just no cold air within 4000 miles of the UK so the winter is now officially done and dusted, infact winter just bypassed us altogether, by far the warmest in 40 years since I kept records. The only winter on record when the coldest day max was 5C.

 

[leigull]

Silly question, but when they say coldest winter on record etc, when does winter officially begin and end?

 

[The Wizard]

I use a finger in the air model and my predcitions have been spot on. The cold snap this weekend is again downgraded to average temps of 7C. There is just no cold air within 4000 miles of the UK so the winter is now officially done and dusted, infact winter just bypassed us altogether, by far the warmest in 40 years since I kept records. The only winter on record when the coldest day max was 5C.

Sorry but that is just factually incorrect, the cold air is on the near continent as we speak, we just need things to fall into place to pull it in and it wont take much just a few little tweaks in the models, there was never a cold snap being predicted for this weekend, so again that is incorrect, the cold was predicted for early next week and by the looks of the FAX chart the met office stick by this. Most people understand cold conditions in the UK take a massive battle, especially sustained cold as we need lots of things to fall into place, the models are making very significant changes out to 3 days, these changes have big effects on whether we get cold or not.

Silly question, but when they say coldest winter on record etc, when does winter officially begin and end?

For us I'd imagine they probably use 1'st December-1'st March

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Although the MET issued that yesterday there have been developments from a cold perspective, the last few runs have been very poor, the ECM and GFS have agreement that there will be no cold spell, at least not in the next 2 weeks, this is however only the past two model runs, the 12z today(next model output) is all important as it could bury the cold potential completely.

EDIT: Just to say I'm not saying a cold spell will not happen because there are so many tiny variables that can change everything just saying that if the current trend continues, from the 06hrs GFS and 00hrs ECM then its game over, FAX charts however are still holding out with the easterly, for any novice these are charts that the met office forecasters draw up based on data/experience

I've avoided posting in here, as currently I have nothing more to add - the Met Office have no idea past Saturday... in fact today the BBC south West forecast included the line "we can't give you Sunday's forecast because we have no idea what the weather will be".... and they left the icon blank.

There are still signals for a very cold spell, but also there are about the same number of signals for it not to happen. The latest GFS ensemble shows the huge range of possibilities, and to answer Unc's point, there is a huge pool of very cold air to our east, so were some of the colder options to come true we could be seeing temps below freezing by day.

[note at time of writing these are showing the 00Z output - this will change very soon to the 06Z]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=314&ext=1&y=194&run=0&runpara=0

The plot below shows 2m temp, precipitation amount and as above snow probability.... lot's of numbers oin the 30-60% range there.

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens4.php?temp=1&x=314&y=194&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0

The ECM 'went mild' this morning, but it was on the warm side of its own ensemble, so still not conclusive.

Who knows? If the Met Office don't - were hardly going to do better.