Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
I'm not an active member of there TBH. I'm a WeatherOutlook kinda guy.
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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
I'm not an active member of there TBH. I'm a WeatherOutlook kinda guy.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Just for any newcomers to this thread we should recap on what happened last snow season. Papa said we were going to get snow and quite a bit of it. Uncle Spielberg said we wouldn't get any snow.
You may recall that we got the most snow we have had since the 1980's.
I am therefore more inclined to follow Papa's view this time!! Snow prediction is impossibly hard and no one can really know, but Papa has a track record, US has a different track record
As I've said before, this thread is not about scoring points - as [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] has said, I try to present the outlook in as dispassionate a way as possible, based upon facts. It's also to revel in the glory that is snow (so, you can see where my personal preference is).
There is a huge amount of publicly available model data out there, and I just have a very keen interest in consuming that data and making personal interpretations of the likely outcome based upon it all.
The coming week will be key to how the rest of the winter pans out, with Stratospheric Warming splitting the Polar Vortex forecasting becomes very difficult. Anything beyond 5 days is very uncertain, but it's still possible that we will get a cold / very cold spell not long from now. I'd personally say that with the upcoming 'pattern change' we will see some snow before winter's ended, as we're no longer locked into the fixed zonal pattern any more.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
worth bring this back to the top - latest GFS ens is interesting - and that date 21st is still showing as a key date
Yoda
English & European
*Runs off to netweather to take a gander*
Just back from taking a look. Look like a mighty big blocking high forming from Siberia heading to Scandinavia to me.
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,399
I'm counting 5 ensemble options below -10 850temps a significant improvement on yesterday, lets hope we keep seeing a gradual improvement
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
and 1 taking it down to -18C - a tad chilly.
for the non weather geeks - the 850hpa temp were talking about isn't the surface temp, but the temp at a specific pressure in the atmosphere - so with high pressure the altitude will be higher. Were we to get a low pressure of 850hpa (or millibars if you prefer) this would be the surface temp.
So, anything from about -8C (-10C is 100%) should deliver snow. In an easterly it's easier to get snow even with higher 850hpa temps as we tend to get a colder continental feed direct, so the upper temps are less key.
There are other factors, but as a rule of thumb, where the temp drops to -10C at 850hpa it's a good indicator for it to be nailed on cold enough for snow - factor in the precipitation forecast and you're there.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Actually - read this if you're interested....
Basic Snow ForecastingÂ*Guide | UK Weather Forecasts
It outlines the many variable to forecasting snow.
Basic Snow ForecastingÂ*Guide | UK Weather Forecasts
It outlines the many variable to forecasting snow.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
I have to hand it to you. You know your Weather Papa.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
It would appear quite a few of us do, you included. Do you keep weather records?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
If you're lazy - Meteociel factor all this into this forecast;
Meteociel - Cartes du modèle numérique GFS pour l'Europe
Which plots precipitation and type.
and you can do the same here for each of the 22 ensemble members:
Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GFS (ENS/GEFS)
In fact Meteociel is pretty much a one-stop-shop for all the major models (click model titles across the top to access each in turn).
casbom
Well-known member
- Jul 24, 2007
- 2,598
I agree in that it appears a trend to colder conditions is in the offing, however until the Polar Vortex moves west out of Greenland, we can kiss any cold spell goodbye!
Luckily that is what the models are starting to show, within a few days we should be at the stage to say "when it's going to snow" as opposed to "if".
We should have a clearer picture as to what is going to happen later on next week by the weekend.
Papa - That PTB 7 - awesome!
Luckily that is what the models are starting to show, within a few days we should be at the stage to say "when it's going to snow" as opposed to "if".
We should have a clearer picture as to what is going to happen later on next week by the weekend.
Papa - That PTB 7 - awesome!
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
someone posted this on The Weather Outlook - it's an image of a GFS ensemble from Feb 2009 - you'd think this would be pretty much nailed on for snow / cold weather - very strong ensemble agreement.
At the last minute - it all went wrong and nothing came of it - so we need to be careful I suppose.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
I watched the weather this morning with disbelief. Did Carol Kirkwood really say it would be very cold tomorrow with a maximum temperature of 7C. Did I really hear that or was I imagining it ?
I imagine you blame her for any bad weather we have. Negative forecasting breeds more negative weather.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
I'd imagine she said it - they often talk b*llocks. Still huge uncertainty about the way things will go past about 4 days out. Defintely a colder / more settled spell coming up, with frost & fog a risk; after that - possibly a 2 day milder interlude, then cooler....
- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,229
- Thread starter
- #3,296
I know, but it is bloody funny to see US squirm. I loved the moment when he said there would be no snow last year, and he gradually had to admit he may have been wrong. It's all good fun for us snow lovers who have no understanding of the weather dynamics like you seaweed and cow watchers!!!
Flex Your Head
Well-known member
I was just looking at the Met Office's forecast for the period 18th - 27th Jan:
Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills. Drier, brighter spells are most likely across the south and east of the UK. Conditions late next week and through the weekend remaining unsettled with a risk of wintry showers, especially in the north and over high ground, and also a risk of overnight frosts in quieter spells. The changeable conditions are expected to continue through into the last week of January with some spells of milder, wetter weather and also spells of brighter, colder and showery weather with frosty nights.
Mild, wet, bright, cold, showery and frosty? Is that what's known as hedging your bets?
Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills. Drier, brighter spells are most likely across the south and east of the UK. Conditions late next week and through the weekend remaining unsettled with a risk of wintry showers, especially in the north and over high ground, and also a risk of overnight frosts in quieter spells. The changeable conditions are expected to continue through into the last week of January with some spells of milder, wetter weather and also spells of brighter, colder and showery weather with frosty nights.
Mild, wet, bright, cold, showery and frosty? Is that what's known as hedging your bets?
Woodchip
It's all about the bikes
I think it's called "not a f***ing clue what's going to happen". Otherwise known as "a mixed bag".
Accuweather is predicting freezing rain for the 23rd(ish)
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
As predicted, back to 11C with very mild, wet and windy Sw's by midweek again, the " cold snap " with 6C at day and 0C at night is over.
BBC Weather : Brighton
BBC Weather : Brighton
Woodchip
It's all about the bikes
Can we bounce this at the end of the month when the very cold snap is expected? Or are you likely to flounce off?
Sent from my phone cause I can