[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Easy 10]

I don't want snow, but some COLD would be nice at least.

I've lashed out £65 on a splendid new Albion coat, and so far I've been sweating like a rapist in it.

 

[beardy gull]

Not really, about 6 weeks left. Mildest winter of all time.

Hi. keep an eye on the forecasts over the next couple of days. They may start to paint a very different picture to recently.

It's all coming together nicely......

 

[goldstone]

With reference to my post above. Next.Friday onwards is key, but the models are starting to show signs of a cold Easterly outbreak. There is still some uncertainty, but it looks like a pattern change is on the way with the polar vortex finally splitting. More later.

The polar vortex is splitting

We are doomed I tell you, doomed.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The polar vortex is splitting

We are doomed I tell you, doomed.

This is how The Day After Tomorrow started... honest.

 

[Giraffe]

This is how The Day After Tomorrow started... honest.

Woohoo!! I hope we are below that randomly drawn line when they decide who to evacuate and who not to bother with!!

So do you think this is a good possibility?

 

[Giraffe]

Let's predict the first snow day of 2012.

Or predict there will be none in Sussex this year?

I'm going for Wednesday 25th January.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Let's predict the first snow day of 2012.

Or predict there will be none in Sussex this year?

I'm going for Wednesday 25th January.

It's still looking hard to forecast at the moment. With a less zonal flow we're looking at increased northerly blocking, but at the moment we're still no nearer getting a clear understanding of where this might occur. Last night's GFS gave a signal for a cold easterly, but this has receeded this morning.

However, the models are all over the place at the moment past mid month. I'd go for colder conditions to arrive, but with only rain down here, but with a chance of snow here by month end.

Down here we need it to happen sooner as the sun's strength starts to grow as we go into February, otherwise it's going to be hard to get s decent snowy spell (though not impossible).

 

[Peteinblack]

I can't see any sign of any serious cold, snowy weather for the foreseeable future.

True, the Jet Stream seems to have nudged slightly north, so that the track taken by the recent deep, stormy, areas of low pressure (depressions) is now between Scotland and Iceland en route to Scandinavia, but that is simply allowing a slack area of high pressure (anticyclone) to drift into southern parts of Britain.

What we would need for a really good (bad!) cold spell is an intense anti-cyclone over Scandinavia feeding us strong easterly winds from Russia/Siberia, and low pressure over France/Belgium/Netherlands to squeeze the isobars and push some snow up across the Channel. Yet there is absolutely no sign of any of this.

On the contrary, pressure is low over Scandinavia, high over the nearby continent, and Moscow (where any bitterly cold easterlies would normally originate) is merely hovering around freezing, rather than the usual minus 10-15 C.

The only cold weather or snow I can envisage is a temporary plunge of northerly Arctic air in the wake of a deep depression passing over Scotland, but even then, the worst of any such weather would mainly be over Scotland and Northern England, and at the moment, even that is looking unlikely.

It was so mild on Sunday night that we opened the bathroom window overnight, something we'd normally do in the summer!

We didn't get a proper summer last year (too cool), and we're not getting a proper winter now (too mild); in the famous words of John Lydon/Rotten at the Pistols' last 1978 gig, in San Francisco: 'Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?'

 

[Deleted member 18477]

once christmas has passed any snow can seriously f**k off! disrupts everything! we now want summer! SUMMER!!!!!!!!!

BBQ'S AND BEER GARDENS!

 

[Peteinblack]

once christmas has passed any snow can seriously f**k off! disrupts everything! we now want summer! SUMMER!!!!!!!!!

BBQ'S AND BEER GARDENS!

Gets up, goes to book-shelf, gets down a dictionary, and looks up 'summer'.

 

[casbom]

So many times over the last week I thought about bringing this topic back up top, but then the next lot of forecast models changed completely! Anyway the trend (and that's all we can say at the moment) is that it WILL turn colder towards the end of the month. Whether that heralds in snow or cold high pressure we won't know until at least early next week.

The models are toying with a Scandi high with the help of a cross polar flow which helps to keep the Atlantic at bay, and instead sends low pressure beneath the scandi high. However the models are not good at forecasting disruption like that and there is not much data to use over the pole, so we can expect all sorts of different output for the next week!

My money would be a close call next week with the cold weather on the continent, but not quite edging over us. We then get another chance in the last week of Jan where we'll then get some decent cold and snow.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I can't see any sign of any serious cold, snowy weather for the foreseeable future.

True, the Jet Stream seems to have nudged slightly north, so that the track taken by the recent deep, stormy, areas of low pressure (depressions) is now between Scotland and Iceland en route to Scandinavia, but that is simply allowing a slack area of high pressure (anticyclone) to drift into southern parts of Britain.

What we would need for a really good (bad!) cold spell is an intense anti-cyclone over Scandinavia feeding us strong easterly winds from Russia/Siberia, and low pressure over France/Belgium/Netherlands to squeeze the isobars and push some snow up across the Channel. Yet there is absolutely no sign of any of this.

On the contrary, pressure is low over Scandinavia, high over the nearby continent, and Moscow (where any bitterly cold easterlies would normally originate) is merely hovering around freezing, rather than the usual minus 10-15 C.

The only cold weather or snow I can envisage is a temporary plunge of northerly Arctic air in the wake of a deep depression passing over Scotland, but even then, the worst of any such weather would mainly be over Scotland and Northern England, and at the moment, even that is looking unlikely.

It was so mild on Sunday night that we opened the bathroom window overnight, something we'd normally do in the summer!

We didn't get a proper summer last year (too cool), and we're not getting a proper winter now (too mild); in the famous words of John Lydon/Rotten at the Pistols' last 1978 gig, in San Francisco: 'Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?'

In winter we get perfect summer synoptics, and in summer perfect winter synoptics. We'd have killed for a semi-permanent Azores -> Euro High like we've had since September.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So many times over the last week I thought about bringing this topic back up top, but then the next lot of forecast models changed completely! Anyway the trend (and that's all we can say at the moment) is that it WILL turn colder towards the end of the month. Whether that heralds in snow or cold high pressure we won't know until at least early next week.

The models are toying with a Scandi high with the help of a cross polar flow which helps to keep the Atlantic at bay, and instead sends low pressure beneath the scandi high. However the models are not good at forecasting disruption like that and there is not much data to use over the pole, so we can expect all sorts of different output for the next week!

My money would be a close call next week with the cold weather on the continent, but not quite edging over us. We then get another chance in the last week of Jan where we'll then get some decent cold and snow.

This - totally agree - the latest GFS has some wonderfullt snowy charts in the low res part (out near 300hours) but nothing near enough to forecast upon.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Looking here:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=308&ext=1&y=189&run=6&runpara=0

There's clearly aweak signal for an Easterly from about the 21st. (The low 850hpa temps are the visible sign here) but there is just not enough cross ensemble support yet.

 

[goldstone]

Looking here:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=308&ext=1&y=189&run=6&runpara=0

There's clearly aweak signal for an Easterly from about the 21st. (The low 850hpa temps are the visible sign here) but there is just not enough cross ensemble support yet.

Which foreign language are you guys communicating in?

 

[Peteinblack]

Which foreign language are you guys communicating in?

Meteorologise

 

[casbom]

Looking here:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=308&ext=1&y=189&run=6&runpara=0

There's clearly aweak signal for an Easterly from about the 21st. (The low 850hpa temps are the visible sign here) but there is just not enough cross ensemble support yet.

Hi mate,

It's nice to still see the mean trend going down, lots more eye candy I should imagine to come!

 

[Falkor]

What gets me is weather like today bright sunshine and its raining

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What gets me is weather like today bright sunshine and its raining

Surely it's - bright sunshine and its raining : rainbow ?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Interesting yet not conclusive developments this morning, with the ECMWF & UKMO (the 2 best performing models) coming onside with pressure rising strongly to our NE, and the Atlantic calming down considerably. The GFS ensemble also shows a few very cold runs again.

I'd say the chance of a cold / snowy interlude before month end as being about 25-30% at the moment. As always more runs are needed, but confidence has increased slightly since yesterday.

This chart is full of potential:

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique ECMWF CEP

As is this from the Met Office from much closer:

meteociel.fr - modèle UKMO pour la France, resolution 1.25 degré