[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[chimneys]

Anyone know what its like in Sheffield? Driving up there from BN1 in a couple of hours.

Very much League 1 ! And dont forget to remind them of that when you get there!!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I'm not promising anything, but the Stratospheric Warming Event is looking very likely around the end of the year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.gif

Without going into any details, there is a proven link between these events and colder winter weather in Europe. In fact last December's weather followed a strong event of this nature.

The basic theory is that a warm stratosphere will eventually produce a warmingof the Troposphere below (where weather lives) and this tends to disrupt the west to east flow around the globe, producing blocking and colder weather is more likely.

http://www.enn.com/climate/article/42265?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EnvironmentalNewsNetwork+%28Environmental+News+Network%29

So, as I said, there is a forecast for a couple of medium events around the turn of the year. Nothing clear is showing up on the models yet, although the latest GFS ensembles do show a few runs where the persistent High from Azores to Europe disappears and allows low pressure to move into Europe.

If we start seeing signs of a pattern change I'll post back on here.

Papa

 

[Tulip]

Any sign of the white stuff in the next few weeks Papa? I am missing the stuff!!!

 

[Woodchip]

Any sign of the white stuff in the next few weeks Papa? I am missing the stuff!!!

I was thinking this very question early today as well.

Sent by yolk folk

 

[Yoda]

In a word. No.

Nothing on the horizon.

 

[LamieRobertson]

it will b first week of feb...thst wen i am due to rent a cottage in the peak district...well aftr the leicester game!

 

[Giraffe]

Liking the new thread title!!

So end of year snow now looking less likely then?

 

[casbom]

Yes for down here, our best chance in the next couple of weeks wil be from transient cold air after each low pressure, so maybe something like happened in mid Dec. I would say our best chance of proper snow is still towards end of Jan and into Feb.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

With little more than 6 weeks left where snow / cold can happen down here, it looks like a complete no show this " winter " or should I say extended Autumn.

Temps in November were around 5C, 9 F above normal and in December have been 3C 5F above normal. Scotland hit 60F over Xmas and we have had only 3 nights where the thermometer fell below 0C 32F, the lowest being -3C 27F.

Bulbs are springing up 2 months early as we have not had 2 consecutive frosts this winter and nature thinks it is spring.

They are describing it as chilly today at 10C 50F which is 3C 5F above normal such is the warmth that a day even near normal feels very cold.

It looks like being the warmest winter on record and will be remembered as the lost winter.

 

[casbom]

With little more than 6 weeks left where snow / cold can happen down here, it looks like a complete no show this " winter " or should I say extended Autumn.

Temps in November were around 5C, 9 F above normal and in December have been 3C 5F above normal. Scotland hit 60F over Xmas and we have had only 3 nights where the thermometer fell below 0C 32F, the lowest being -3C 27F.

Bulbs are springing up 2 months early as we have not had 2 consecutive frosts this winter and nature thinks it is spring.

They are describing it as chilly today at 10C 50F which is 3C 5F above normal such is the warmth that a day even near normal feels very cold.

It looks like being the warmest winter on record and will be remembered as the lost winter.

There's a long way to go yet, we'll see come end of Feb! For the record I think your wrong.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Not really, about 6 weeks left. Mildest winter of all time.

 

[8ace]

We've had snow in April before though.

 

[Everest]

In a word. No.

Nothing on the horizon.

I think it's wanted in Brighton, not on the horizon.

 

[LamieRobertson]

I think it's wanted in Brighton, not on the horizon.

i don't want any..cant see my work if it snows let alone do it

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

We've had snow in April before though.

Which went by 3 pm the same day. I am talking about a period of cold lasting a few days and that does not happen here after about Mid Feb.

 

[Notters]

Not really, about 6 weeks left. Mildest winter of all time.

Oh f***, US has spoken, batten down the hatches. Blizzards are IMMINENT.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Todays model output is finally showing a few possible colder scenarios in the mix. GFS is showing a possible link up between a UK centred High Pressure and one to the NE which could open the flood gates to some seriously cold air. it's still only a possible outcome but we might finally be seeing a less zonal setup being forecast and just maybe the first signs of winter.

as always, more when things become clearer.

Happy New year

papa

 

[Papa Lazarou]

With reference to my post above. Next.Friday onwards is key, but the models are starting to show signs of a cold Easterly outbreak. There is still some uncertainty, but it looks like a pattern change is on the way with the polar vortex finally splitting. More later.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Hi. keep an eye on the forecasts over the next couple of days. They may start to paint a very different picture to recently.

 

[philsussex]

Well it's been a very disappointing winter so far. Fingers crossed for a good dumping of snow soon.